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The Real Silicon Valley

jfornear.co

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Re: The Real Silicon Valley

#31

Post by dredmorbius »

fearless wrote: post #16
sukuriant wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

nitpick: It's a loooooooooot less than 1%

Source? I've seen data pegging startup failure rates anywhere between 50-90%, but I've never seen a credible source claim that over 99% fail. Mathematically, no investor would be able to stay in business if 99% of their investments fail. I'm guessing failure rates for startups that have funding or bootstrap through revenue are closer to 75%.

It's not that 99% fail, it's that well over 99% of participants fail to hit a $1m payout. Top founders and early VC, as well as key executive hires, may win. For staff, including early engineering hires, "a good year" is a more likely outcome, after 2-6 years, or more, of sweat equity. Payout of 5-6 figures.

Re: The Real Silicon Valley

#32

Post by spdy »

Sometimes Silicon Valley looks from the outside like Las Vegas but for programmers. Make a billion dollars with an idea you have no clue about how to monetize in the first place.

Re: The Real Silicon Valley

#34

Post by dreamdu5t »

noname123 wrote: post #11
fearless wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone knows startups are not the optimal economically rational way to make money. But to an entrepreneur, living off 6% muni bond interest is profoundly uninteresting, and dare I say soul crushing. Repeat after me: If you think it's only about the money, you're missing the point. And even if it is all about the money, most 25 year olds would jump at a 1% chance to make $10 million over a $100% chance to make $200K…

Better way to make money is to take out a personal loan for 100K, same opportunity cost of two years of programmer-salary on startups. Buy out of the money options on small-cap pharmacuetical facing FDA decisions, you have the ability to also make $10 million overnight with 30% success. Go for insider-tips to max out on your success.

Tell me more.

Re: The Real Silicon Valley

#35

Post by aliston »

noname123 wrote: post #18
rmason wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where can you buy muni bonds that earn 6%? Most of the muni bonds yields I've found online are in the 3.5-4% range. That is unless you're talking about the city of Detroit (which is flirting with bankruptcy) that pays 7% plus and is riskier imho than doing a startup. http://blogs.marketwatch.com/fundmastery/2010/03/12/goldman-...

Found some Mass. bonds (because it's my home state, so tax-free for both federal and state) yielding 6.43% just now, with expiration date of 2029-05-01 and with credit rating of AA+ http://massachusetts.municipalbonds.com/bonds/issue/914440KJ... . Also can also buy some REITs with annual high-dividend yield of 17% such as AGNC or NLY. These are a bit riskier due to fluctuating principal out on the open equity market.…

Could you explain the second part of your comment... I'm not sure I quite understand what you're saying. Wouldn't owning calls hurt you when the stock price likely falls post-ex-dividend? I'm pretty new to options trading...

Also, are you speaking from experience with your hypothetical? If so, I'd be interested in discussing some other things further.

Re: The Real Silicon Valley

#36

Post by oscargrouch »

I quit my TI job, lost my beautiful fiancee, lost my friends and came back to live with my parents, and all of this after thirty.. Im pretty sociable guy.. and had a very rich and good social life before all this..

Im living in Brazil, without access to this garden of VC funds you guys have in the Valley..

But i live in front of a beautiful beach, where i go out everyday to run, and let some stress behind me..

Im still here.. working.. penyless.. and you know what keep me moving?

is not the money i can make.. (i dont even know if this dream im pursuing will make me any rich).. but the simple fact to be able to live working on my dream.. have the possibility to not only change my life, but also the life of many others for better.. make me go everyday.. believe, work hard..

i dont know if i will succed.. but i know that the most important thing in life is to try.. to make diference.. to make this place better.. im sure theres no payment better than this..

You see, the right amount of money that we all really need, is enough to give us freedom to do what we thing we should..

So i think you need to get another sort of payment, while you are (dollar) broke.. you must be payed by your own dreams.. this may look stupid.. but when we are in the edge of our lifes, because we believe in something.. we have the ultimate freedom.. a freedom that not only can change our lifes.. but make a wave of new unthinkable possibilities become reality

Im sure that when all this im passing now has gone.. i will remember this time with joy..

Try to imagine your future you, talking with your present you.. the future you are happy? what he got to tell you..

Im here man, im a warrior and i wont give up...

If you think you have made a mistake then, go on .. and maybe latter you will try again something else.. and succed tremendously.. but deep inside we all know if we are in the right path.. Your heart will tell you this everyday.. and if thats is the case.. go on man! the world are made by the hands of the ones who didnt give up. The ones who dare to dream..

Life for game changers are hard.. and they only succed because they are harder.

Its a wonderful time for you to discover your real you, and what you capable of.. you will probably surprise yourself.. No better payment than this :)

Good luck in your path!

Re: The Real Silicon Valley

#37

Post by timjahn »

If this is what the "real Silicon Valley" is like, this explains why I've never had the burning desire to move there and build a company there instead of Chicago.

That and the realization that there's more to life.

Re: The Real Silicon Valley

#38

Post by timjahn »

tarr11 wrote: post #20

It'd be great if the author wrote about something specific . This article contains little detail about anything that actually happened.

Couldn't agree more. Amazing intro and then the post hits a brick wall. I thought maybe the rest was cut off....

Re: The Real Silicon Valley

#39

Post by fearless »

dredmorbius wrote: post #31
fearless wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Source? I've seen data pegging startup failure rates anywhere between 50-90%, but I've never seen a credible source claim that over 99% fail. Mathematically, no investor would be able to stay in business if 99% of their investments fail. I'm guessing failure rates for startups that have funding or bootstrap through revenue are closer to 75%.

It's not that 99% fail, it's that well over 99% of participants fail to hit a $1m payout. Top founders and early VC, as well as key executive hires, may win. For staff, including early engineering hires, "a good year" is a more likely outcome, after 2-6 years, or more, of sweat equity. Payout of 5-6 figures.

Assuming this is referring to founders. If you're an employee, you're the engineer making $100K in OP's comment.

Re: The Real Silicon Valley

#40

Post by arbuge »

noname123 wrote: post #9
arbuge wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh? Having $1.2m beats having 200k any day... If 6% muni-bonds are a good investment (I personally have no idea), then presumably the guy with the $1.2m portfolio could buy them too... why is the 1% CD his only investment option?

Point is having FU money, for most people it's $3mil at today's current interest rate to generate $30K which is annual young person's cost of living in a big metro. If you can cut your cost of living down $12K, then only $200K is needed.

Careful with that. That ignores inflation, which as a great man once said, is the most pernicious tax of all. Inflation is currently around ~1.8% per year. Money in a 1% CD is effectively losing 0.8% per year.

If you're happy with a $30k return on a $3m portfolio, you need to get a 2.8% return in today's inflation environment.

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