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What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

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Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

#141

Post by euroderf »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #34
Balooga wrote: post #21

Jevons Paradox [1] > when technological improvements that increase the efficiency of a resource's use lead to a rise, rather than a fall, in total consumption of that resource. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox Las Vegas replaced the expensive incandescent lighting on the strip with cheaper to run LED equivalents. But the costs didn't come down because they were able to add more lights and larger dis…

Turns out Grey Goo was just thermal paste

Just wait. An A.I. will devise a formula for a real grey goo.

Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

#142

Post by euroderf »

sssilver wrote: post #32
andai wrote: post #22

> Reading everything becomes the default. At a cent per document, a model can read every paper I love how in our day "reading everything" means "the computer reads it for me". I expect soon the computer will be able to go on bicycle rides, and spend time with my wife.

Hasn't the computer already been spending time with your wife?

"We're living in an attention economy."

"So's your mom."

Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

#143

Post by euroderf »

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #3

I think a big one is robotics. A robot can today fold your laundry. It takes ~10mins per item. Seriously. It takes a long time to process the image find the corner move the claw to the corner of the shirt and attempt to straighten before folding. Robots right now generally move at glacial speeds. You might have seen robots doing flips in semi controlled environments but watch how slowly they open doors etc. processin…

Shirt folding is piker stuff. The acid test (imho) will be to cleanse a bathroom & shower (or tub) top to bottom. Sparkling and provably sterile. Special treatment for mold on fixtures and walls, and for leftover body stuff (blood, mucus, fungus, what have you).

Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

#144

Post by euroderf »

sweetjuly wrote: post #53
jostmey wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And why won’t the frontier models continue to become better? The open models are getting better but so are the frontier models. The frontier models might remain in a constant race to remain ahead

I don't think it's a matter of "staying ahead"; the proprietary frontier models are better, but the trouble for them is that open weight models are good enough in increasingly many cases. This raises the floor on the frontier companies and cuts their total addressable market by commodifying the easier LLM tasks. This is really the central argument of tfa :)

You suggest that the market segment for frontier models is necessarily shrinking. But what if it's just a failure of imagination on the part of users ?

Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

#145

Post by fallingfrog »

wongarsu wrote: post #76
AnotherGoodName wrote: post #3

I think a big one is robotics. A robot can today fold your laundry. It takes ~10mins per item. Seriously. It takes a long time to process the image find the corner move the claw to the corner of the shirt and attempt to straighten before folding. Robots right now generally move at glacial speeds. You might have seen robots doing flips in semi controlled environments but watch how slowly they open doors etc. processin…

Sensors are a huge challenge for robotics. We have very precise force-feedback on our joints, pressure and heat (temperature gradient) sensors all over our body, and our hands have a sensor density that allows us to count needle heads and detect the exact grip strength needed by feeling the micro-slippage of objects in our hands. Robots don't have that. You can do backflips with pretty much just visual sensors for yo…

Side note but I'm convinced that people wanting to improve touch sensitivity in robots need to look at frequency detail of tactile data, not spatial detail. Try this: Put your finger on a bumpy wall without moving it at all and see what you feel. Not much. Now move your finger across the wall. All sorts of detail jumps out. I think the human tactile system is reading changing pressure in the time domain and translating that into the spatial domain as the finger scans across the surface.

Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

#146

Post by infecto »

andriy_koval wrote: post #139
infecto wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And? Please scroll the start of this thread. Robotics is a long way off, we need better models and more compute. I am not sure what you are arguing for.

My point is that robotics is not long way off, but already has strong utility and gradually taking over more and more functions.

How many years have people been saying that? Remind me of this post in 5 years.

Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

#147

Post by thelastgallon »

wongarsu wrote: post #72
vanuatu wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right, computers are definitely the same speed as they were 20 years ago.

20 years ago is about when SSDs came to consumer PCs. Which is the last time I remember thinking that my computer became faster than the previous one was when it was new (if by computer we mean the hardware combined with a mainstream up-to-date software stack)

Windows XP was a decent OS. You could start with a golden ISO (remove a whole lot of crap) and then tweak the registry to your hearts content. Max out RAM, then when you add an SSD, it felt sublime.

Its not Linux, but all hardware worked on Windows XP. Nerds were familiar with tweaking the registry, doing all kinds of hacks and helping all their friends and family. Of course, cleaning out the thousands of viruses from friends computers wasn't fun ..

Then Microsoft released Windows Vista, yuck!

Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

#149

Post by Aachen »

infecto wrote: post #146
andriy_koval wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is that robotics is not long way off, but already has strong utility and gradually taking over more and more functions.

How many years have people been saying that? Remind me of this post in 5 years.

and for how many years has it already been true that robots are taking over more and more tasks

Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x

#150

Post by everdrive »

ButlerianJihad wrote: post #133
everdrive wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hear what you're saying -- I think there are a few points here: - Obesity is not isolated to food deserts. The people in food deserts may be in a pitiable situation, but most of us are obese; not just the people in food deserts. If obesity were isolated to food deserts, or even concentrated in food deserts, I might feel differently. - Even the people in food deserts have access to nutrition labels. One thing that m…

People are often not aware of how their ability to function far exceeds some other people who are not so fortunate. To describe a lifestyle of "surviving on black beans and rice" and riding your bike around, implies that you maintained a functioning household and kitchen with paid, active utilities; you were able to clean the room, vessels, appliances and utensils on a regular basis; you did pest control as necessary…

If the people you're talking about are in such a state of dysfunction then I don't think a nice local grocery store will save them either.
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