Earlier quoted context omitted.
One of my projects has an estimate of 3,000+ hours. It seems accurate. It has spent months working on it.
Can I ask what you are working on?
I'm working on emulators with AOT and JIT.
What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x
121–130 of 151 posts
Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x
#122Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think this viewpoint fails to understand what "intelligence" is. The idea must be that intelligence is some special thing that only humans have. So when machines couldn't do jack s... we said "it's the Turing test". When machines blew through the Turing test we said "that was just prediction..not really intelligence, that's different". It's not different. The delusion humans have is that intelligence is special and…
Until you contribute something substantial to humanity that is novel, you ought to reduce the tone of confidence.
[deleted]
Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x
#123Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think this viewpoint fails to understand what "intelligence" is. The idea must be that intelligence is some special thing that only humans have. So when machines couldn't do jack s... we said "it's the Turing test". When machines blew through the Turing test we said "that was just prediction..not really intelligence, that's different". It's not different. The delusion humans have is that intelligence is special and…
Until you contribute something substantial to humanity that is novel, you ought to reduce the tone of confidence.
[deleted]
Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x
#124Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think this viewpoint fails to understand what "intelligence" is. The idea must be that intelligence is some special thing that only humans have. So when machines couldn't do jack s... we said "it's the Turing test". When machines blew through the Turing test we said "that was just prediction..not really intelligence, that's different". It's not different. The delusion humans have is that intelligence is special and…
Until you contribute something substantial to humanity that is novel, you ought to reduce the tone of confidence.
If this wasn't just some cheap insult, it's worrying that you think one can become licensed for arbitrary confidence like that.
Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x
#125Earlier quoted context omitted.
You did not answer the question at all. Third party inference providers for Chinese models are in the US and there are so many players it would be shocking they are all heavily subsidizing it.
It would be shocking to you if in a market with many competing sellers would there be price competition such that those sellers are operating at a loss? If you’re trying to get me to argue that every seller is operating at a loss, I don’t know. But overall the market absolutely is, again because balance sheets
Balance sheets is not an answer. Sorry I am just asking for material proof. It would indeed be pretty shocking for every market participant, large or small, funded or unfunded to be operating inference at a loss.
Plans are definitely subsidized. Inference (token consumption) has never been proven to be operating at a loss and now that you can run many of the large SOTA models from China on sparks or other clustered servers you can figure out some of the math.
Not trying to argue but just saying “balance sheets” makes zero sense.
Yes lots of capex spend, hard to say if anyone has spent too much. At the same time demand is increasing for compute.
Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x
#126Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x
#127Jevons Paradox [1] > when technological improvements that increase the efficiency of a resource's use lead to a rise, rather than a fall, in total consumption of that resource. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox Las Vegas replaced the expensive incandescent lighting on the strip with cheaper to run LED equivalents. But the costs didn't come down because they were able to add more lights and larger dis…
Jevon's Paradox says nothing about the size of the incremental demand though. Lighting is a great example. The US went from spending 15% of our electricity on lighting to ~4%. LEDs are maybe 5x as efficient, so that would be 3% without any change in usage. So we did see maybe a 30% increase in consumption as a result of lower prices, but that was nowhere near large enough to offset the efficiency gain in terms of ove…
Is that because non lighting electricity use increased though? 30% increase in the percentage of a growing pie isnt the same as a straight 30% increase
Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x
#128Earlier quoted context omitted.
Also, 24h 365d, which is superior to humans.
And? Still in a controlled environment. I cannot pick one up today from a store.
laundry folding is some superficial benchmark, real impact will be made in controlled environments in factories, packing centers, etc.
Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x
#129It’s way too early to tell the true cost of intelligence. Inference is still heavily subsidized, and training is apparently being funded by a mountain of free money
I don't think we have evidence that inference itself is subsidized, but I think we can assume the margins on inference are so low that the foundation model providers have absolutely no chance of recouping training costs and the whole thing is riding on a pile of VC cash and debt.
My bet is the assumption was one company would ultimately monopolize the space and then they could jack up rates. Alas, the opposite seems to be happening.
Re: What Happens When the Cost of Intelligence Drops 100x
#130Earlier quoted context omitted.
20 years ago is about when SSDs came to consumer PCs. Which is the last time I remember thinking that my computer became faster than the previous one was when it was new (if by computer we mean the hardware combined with a mainstream up-to-date software stack)
You had SSDs in 2006? Was I missing out? I don't think I had any in my builds until 2014ish
Samsung commercialized the first high-volume consumer notebook PC utilizing an SSD in 2006. The Intel X25-M was released in sept 2008 and cut SSD hard drive prices per gigabyte by 60% pretty much instantly