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The Amazon tax

seths.blog

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Re: The Amazon tax

#701
post #562
post #549

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't want any of your arguments to be supported in law. The day someone can sue me because they searched for something on my web site and what they expected didn't come up, my web site is effectively legally prevented from having a search box. The action needed here is anti-trust style / monopoly action. If there were viable competitors it wouldn't matter what Amazon's search box does. The fact the US government i…

I understand why you are opposed to the arguments and I like the idea of anti-trust action, but ... The anti-trust cases I am familiar with spanned decades. Perhaps it's not a representative sample, yet it also makes sense. Anti-trust basically says they're doing something that is normally legal, but they're abusing their power over the market in a way that makes those actions illegal. You're moving from prosecuting…

> On the other hand, it is difficult to untangle legitimate consumer choice from a monopoly manipulating the market to remove that choice.

You said it. I've wondered if the FTC could run through a process like the below to force market evolutions, but I'm certain there's ways to make this into regulatory capture.

Assuming we want free markets...and enough regulations to keep particular monopoloy/cartel from capturing a given free market...:

1. Identify the market: who are the suppliers, who are the demanders

2. Ensure the ratio of suppliers to demanders is such that there are lots of options for a given demander across local, regional, national, international search scopes, are there 7+ local options, 7 regional, etc.?

3. Ensure a given market is vigorously moving, meaning there is plenty of distribution between new market entrants and established incumbents, gate a given incumbent to a market to heightened scrutiny after 10 years or X percentage of the market

4. if a market has lock-in/network effects/increasing switching costs, discount the relative number of suppliers based on and take actions to force all suppliers to lower switching costs

5. treat the medium to larger businesses with the most initial suspicion and danger for regulatory capture and bribery, and soft touch sole proprietorships, small businesses, and (non-LARP) startups with less than X percentage cash flow or years of operation

6. Somehow get regulatorially captured, so reform this process to catch the new failure mode(s) without losing lessons of the past.

Businesses need stable regulatory frameworks to build and thrive, but if they are so stable and so 'cheatable' then businesses become sclerotic dinosaurs who don't adapt to the changing conditions on the ground except to protect themselves and their positions.

US GOP members always want to focus on entrepreneur spirits and the power of free markets, but then don't catch when a given market is captured and held by big businesses (see the smartphone maker oligopoly or Luxottica Optical monopoly), probably for corruption/bribery-seeking reasons as much as failure to imagine the negative externalities.

US DNC members always want to focus on stopping big businesses and the power of good governance, but then don't catch when a given market is gummed up by so much regulation, the only survivors are those in bed with the government (see the banking and hospital certificate of need cartels or M.I.Complex defense contractors), probably for corruption/bribery-seeking reasons as much as failure to imagine the negative externalities.

A given market needs to be closer to buyer beware in the beginning, but as it matures, it needs to discover and stop the incumbents (whoever they may be) so nobody is comfortable to sit around and extract rent or do share buybacks or otherwise be lazy - we get 'efficient' businesses that suffer from MBA / Jack Welch LARPers who immiserate their employeees, vendors, and eventually customers themselves (so called encrapification), the regulators should target those companies for hurting the health of the market by buying out competitors, saddling up with corporate raids, private equity sinking otherwise profitable businesses, and general dangerous financialization.

Re: The Amazon tax

#702
post #665

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No regulations -> fraud and scams Expecting that the rich will do the right thing out of their good hearts is not just naive but actively damaging for society.

You forget a third option. A monopolist doing the right thing from their good heart? Not gonna work. Legislators micromanaging every last aspect of every last thing through regulations? Not gonna work. Legislators squashing monopolies and making rules to keep competition intact and put meaningful choice into consumers' hands: Might work.

> Legislators squashing monopolies and making rules to keep competition intact

You need both. Even restaurants are heavily regulated to avoid making people sick. To let restaurants make people sick until they go out of business seems a quick way to decimate your own population.

And yes, that everything is consolidated in a few monopolies makes everything bad and expensive. So, that seems a great thing to solve too.

Re: The Amazon tax

#703

I don't love (but use...) Amazon but I think if done properly, ads can be relevant even when searching for a specific thing. Let's use a Google Example: I search for Toyota RAV4 and get an ad for Mazda cx-50. Obviously Toyota hates that but as a consumer it has a chance of making me aware of something I didn't know but would want to know, especially as a part of a purchase decision. That's why Mazda pays for that ad…

In any retail webstore, or even on Spotify, YouTube, etc. all the searches are infuriating today. If I search for specific terms then I get a menu of slop to choose from. Search isn't built to serve the searcher at all. Search is meant to surface things that are promoted, hyped, advertised, or paid for in some way. So you search Amazon for stuff and a lot of crap added on to it. Any retail site's filters are useless…

Me: Give me a list of 30 minute podcasts ...

Gpt3something:

The first one has 90 minute episodes! 30 minutes only!

Re: The Amazon tax

#704

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. If I search "Toyota RAV4" what I mean is Toyota RAV4. If I meant Mazda CX-50 I would have typed "Mazda CX-50." If I wanted information about various mid-size SUVs, rather than one in particular, I'd have searched "midsize SUVs." The number of times I have searched something, got back something I did not ask for, and found that helpful, rounds down to zero. It's actively destructive to the platforms that allow thi…

I agree that this is true for you and probably even for me. But think about normal human conversation - when a friend tells me they are going to buy a rav-4 that weekend,I am 100% going to tell that then I had a rental CX-50 last week and would recommend they take a look at it. In other words: putting a new concept on someone's radar that they hadn't thought about but is relevant to them is hugely valuable. Think abo…

Having those things come up in conversation with a friend, who we can probably trust to deliver good information to us, is _way_ different than a platform that is going to potentially profit if they can sway you another direction.

If my friend is involved in an MLM scheme, I'm not going to trust them that I should buy NutriProteinShakeMax! I probably don't want them to tell me about it, ever!

Re: The Amazon tax

#705
post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It reminds me of an analogy I read a while ago in an article critiquing keyword based online advertising (can't find the article unfortunately). A restaurant wants to drum up new business, so the owner tasks three employees with handing out flyers with coupons attached. The coupons are marked to identify which employee passed them out, and each week the owner gives a bonus to the employee whose coupons get redeemed t…

You raise a good point. This phenomenon is well-documented for at least two decades now on Google search. It is common for brands to buy keywords for their own product. Why? If not, competitors will by the same keywords to direct customers away . As I understand, this has existed for more than 20 years and Google has never been sued for it (that I know). Maybe this is just part of a highly competitive online search m…

This would be a good strategy if there are other people in the waiting area handing out coupons for competing restaurants, which is what is happening in Amazon.

Re: The Amazon tax

#706
post #669

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw a google authenticator copy (using the old icon but named Authenticator) about two weeks ago. It was the top result but an ad and not by Google. Sad I didn't screenshot it, couldn't find it when searching Google Authenticator again.

Remember Google needs to prevent sideloading for your own good, despite the fact that they can't / won't even keep this out of the Play store.

I mean. The fact that GP couldn't find it again is an indication that they did keep it out, or at least kick it out (and possibly uninstalled it from any users that got scammed by that ad).

Google's anti-sideloading stance is scummy for a lot of reasons, but this in particular is a bad example.

Re: The Amazon tax

#707
post #553

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the most baffling comment I think I’ve ever read

Did you know that the sum of the natural numbers is -1/12?

-1/12 is the finite offset after isolating the divergent series. Try something more baffling.

Re: The Amazon tax

#708
The Play Store doing the same thing tells you it's not an Amazon problem. Any platform with enough market share eventually prioritizes ad revenue over search quality.

Re: The Amazon tax

#709
post #669

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember Google needs to prevent sideloading for your own good, despite the fact that they can't / won't even keep this out of the Play store.

I mean. The fact that GP couldn't find it again is an indication that they did keep it out, or at least kick it out (and possibly uninstalled it from any users that got scammed by that ad). Google's anti-sideloading stance is scummy for a lot of reasons, but this in particular is a bad example.

The app icon and name are submitted as part of the app review so there's not really an excuse for this to get through in the first place.

Re: The Amazon tax

#710

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that nuance changes the big picture which is that Amazon has a conflict of interest between showing you the best product that you want, and showing you the product that the seller is most willing to pay to advertise. Quibbling over nuance just gives air cover to this fundamentally extractive rent seeking behavior. We really need stronger anti-trust action in the tech era given the extremely low friction…

"Nuance isn't relevant here because I've already assumed what they're doing is strictly bad" is what I'm haering. Engaging with the nuance means engaging with the fact that rent-seeking can only exist where value (real or perceived) actually exists. Amazon is only able to sell these ads because sellers get value out of them through increasing sales using the infrastructure that Amazon built. The fact that they capita…

> Amazon is only able to sell these ads because sellers get value out of them through increasing sales using the infrastructure that Amazon built.

That only works if there is competition. If there were another way to search amazon which did not show advertisements, people would use that instead. Because we have to use their search to find anything then they can extract value without returning it.

> The fact that they capitalize on that by creating a market for those ad-buyers to compete in (rent-seeking, as you'd call it) is not remotely surprising, they should be able to profit using the systems they built up.

You aren't taking into account that by getting to this position they displaced any alternatives along the way. The customer centric behavior and low prices removed any competition, and now there is no one to offer a better deal. Thus their ability to extract value shouldn't be limitless.

> As far as a conflict of interest, Amazon is still incentivized to get a potential customer to make a purchase

Again, this is not the case where they have no competition.

> monopolies- Amazon is not hiding alternative products to those in the ads; customers are people with the autonomy to find the product that best suites their needs, and they still have full capability of doing that. There are also plenty of other ways to purchase products, I'd guess that 95%+ of products available on Amazon can be sold/purchased elsewhere

What is your definition of a monopoly?

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