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Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

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Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#431

Post by trhway »

porcoda wrote: post #417
abeppu wrote: post #375

So the 1970s oil crisis caused a shift that included fuel efficiency rules. For like, the whole time I've been a software engineer, memory footprints of a lot of software have crept up, even when they aren't really doing more. The memory situation currently is a mess. But ... is it bad enough to get us to _change_ how we build?

That would be a great outcome of this situation. I doubt it will happen though: unlike fuel efficiency rules, there aren’t likely to be external pressures like that on software. Outside developer circles most users likely are unaware of memory usage and often just accept that computers are slow and unreliable sometimes. That’s different from drivers who see their fuel gauge and the corresponding cost of fuel, and are…

The situation may be even more different from fuel. The memory shortage may be just a first of such crisis to come - the shortage of anything related to AI/robotics (from electricity to materials needed to produce robots and for the robots to produce even more robots). I think we have a runaway situation - the more of AI/robots produced, the more is demand for such production. The difference from classic production/manufacturing here is that AI/robots is a consumer itself. In the past the only consumers were people and human population growth is slow whereis AI/robots "population" is starting to explode. (Like Industrial Revolution on steroids - back then getting a steam engine to power your machinery was not just a jump in productivity, it was a jump without which you couldn't compete, and so everybody was getting it https://c8.alamy.com/comp/2RFT119/illustration-of-factories-... (and just for fun compare to https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/6BC2YPEXOZCGJKEO4LWH7CTLI... ) - fortunately for England back then getting a steam engine to produce more steam engines to thus make more and longer jumps in productivity didn't really work that fast and efficient whereis today the situation is becoming more favorable for such productivity multiplication)

Wrt. the memory efficiency - considering that AI is going to be the main workload by far and thus will vacuum in majority of the available optimization resources - be it humans or coding AI - i think it will be even less chances that any meaningful resources will be spent on optimizing on the fringe, ie. the users' OS/browser/etc.

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#432

Post by pertymcpert »

mvdtnz wrote: post #148
florakel wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you provide evidence for your claim? Most people take this statement at face value and I don’t understand why. I do some volunteer work supporting elderly people that have issues adapting to a digital only world and I am always pleasantly surprised by the performance of their old iPhones all the way down to the 8 (old phones they get from their kids) Also the coming iOS 27 release supposedly has some big performa…

Apple is known to slow older devices intentionally. They have admitted it. https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-67911517

You say that like what they were doing was a bad thing. It was a feature.

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#433

Post by josephg »

BobbyTables2 wrote: post #429
josephg wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> software grows more demanding over time. Nah. Adding more features to software doesn’t make software run slower. The problem is that software developers only optimise enough to make it run fast on our own computers. Because we keep getting new computers, we get lazier over time and software gets slower. Electron is the most obvious example of this sort of thing, but examples are everywhere once you start looking.

That may be true but it did get slower. Maybe new fancy UI effects, etc. Apple also seems hellbent on fully utilizing all available space on the low end model. IOS+ System Data is about 30GB. The original iPhone had a 4GB model and had space left over for the user to use!

> That may be true but it did get slower.

Yes. Microsoft is scrambling at the moment because the macbook neo only has 8gb of ram and runs great. Windows 11 can't compete on that hardware because it's so bloated.

I find it strange given microsoft made windows 3.11, which ran fine on computers with just 4mb of ram. Windows 11 is of course more complex than windows 3.11. But not so much that it should need literally 2000 times as much ram.

In some ways, the memory apocalypse is a great thing. The windows start menu should never have been made in javascript and react. I'm hoping our industry uses this as a push to make our software small and fast again. If ram is 5x more expensive, we should aim to make 2gb of ram be more than enough for regular computing tasks.

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#434

Post by mrheosuper »

nullbyte wrote: post #97
jayd16 wrote: post #32

Any new fabs on the horizon or do the powers that be expect the music to stop sooner than that?

CXMT is a memory fab that just opened in China. They achieved a 90% yield on DDR5. Hopefully that could ease up the supply squeeze.

CXMT has been in a game for a while, at least since 2025, because my SBC is using their LPDDR4 RAM.

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#435

Post by crm9125 »

techteach00 wrote: post #210

There is no law that states memory must be a consumer product. I truly believe the era of personal computing was a beautiful blip that our masters are beginning to take away from the general public. It could be terminals and time sharing for the foreseeable future through "smart" phones.

[dead]

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#436

Post by preg_match »

josephg wrote: post #298
preg_match wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every time I upgrade iOS past a few major versions there is significant slow down. I don’t think it’s done on purpose, it’s just that software grows more demanding over time.

> software grows more demanding over time. Nah. Adding more features to software doesn’t make software run slower. The problem is that software developers only optimise enough to make it run fast on our own computers. Because we keep getting new computers, we get lazier over time and software gets slower. Electron is the most obvious example of this sort of thing, but examples are everywhere once you start looking.

I agree, it’s not a natural phenomenon per-se and it is getting worse. I think this consumer hardware problem will actually help get us back on track, to a degree.

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#437

Post by mbesto »

robmccoll wrote: post #369

Just had an HDD in my array die. Thought I'd replace it and add another spare. The prices are up 300% from 2 years ago. For spinning disks. Why?

(1) Because they can. Implied

(2) If you're WD, Seagate, etc. you may shift all your fabs to higher growth areas which means you create less supply for less demand products (spinning disks)

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#438

Post by diogenescynic »

Inflation, cost of living, purchasing power... I feel like life is getting really difficult right now for most people in ways it hasn't been in decades. I don't think memory prices going up this much this fast is good. I think it's a sign of how bad things are and that we are heading in a terrible direction. I think we're going to get a BIG wave of inflation in 2027.

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#439

Post by dosisking »

Aditya_Garg wrote: post #302
pjc50 wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't even short Bitcoin, and that's been on the way out since the AI rise.

Shorting bitcoin would be a huge mistake IMO. Willing to be on the opposite of that trade as well!

So you bought at 125k? That would have been a pretty good short

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#440

Post by SV_BubbleTime »

diogenescynic wrote: post #438

Inflation, cost of living, purchasing power... I feel like life is getting really difficult right now for most people in ways it hasn't been in decades. I don't think memory prices going up this much this fast is good. I think it's a sign of how bad things are and that we are heading in a terrible direction. I think we're going to get a BIG wave of inflation in 2027.

Life on earth today has objectively never been better in the history of our entire species. Try to retain some perspective.
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