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Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

tomshardware.com

251–260 of 587 posts

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#251

After RAM prices climbed 200% between August and November of last year, a store associate at Micro Center encouraged me to buy some RAM sticks if I needed them because "prices might continue to rise for a few years". I told him that was ridiculous and nobody would tolerate it if prices got higher. How wrong I was...

If it makes you feel better. The US government looks like it might start removing some of the 28k troops that are stationed in South Korea over this. No reason to keep them in a country that enables this sort of behavior.

Probably for the best. No hosting nation of imperialism has ever benefited and now we see what the US is willing to throw away because their corporations are upset.

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#252
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm quite sure he's being sarcastic. "The best good ever is to maximise shareholder profits" is a tired and cliched caricature that some people unfortunately take seriously. But this is too on the nose.

I’ve been on HN long enough to know that a disturbing number of people do actually believe that line and act accordingly.

I've come to the same conclusion. Some believe that grownups shouldn't care about RAM prices going up.

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#254
post #56

I still hope all this will come crashing down, there will be an oversupply of components and RAM will be cheaper than paper.

While I share your optimism, I still don't fully understand why a crash will necessarily lead to an oversupply and lower prices for regular consumers. The components / RAM you are referencing are for enterprise use / data centers which in my limited understanding is not a 1:1 swap for the kind of components that your smartphone / car / fridge / gaming rig use. I would love for someone more informed than me to spell o…

Sounds to me like we'll all be using enterprise servers as home computers! Hell yeah!

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#255
post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

100% what I do. I buy a few years behind the leading edge, and keep the device until it either dies or will no longer do what I need it to do. My main desktop computer is Haswell era. Still does fine, for what I do.

Except staying on the edge costs exactly the same as not, when you take the resell value of the components on the second hand market into account. The problem is that some can afford to lock their capital in the hardware (via one-time investment) and some do not. R9700 will lose less than 30% of value in the upcoming 3 years. Give or take. Yet people buy ancient cards for way more than 30% of R9700's cost.

> ...when you take the resell value of the components on the second hand market into account.

When taking the resale value of used kit on the second-hand market into account, one must also take into account the hassle of selling on the second-hand market.

For me? Personally? That hassle absolutely eliminates any money I would get from any plausible sale price. If I'm getting rid of used kit, it's going to be as donations to people I personally know who will come and pick it up at the agreed upon time.

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#256

I’m even more confused by the economics of the frontier model businesses. Even if they got preferential prices, they are still paying an inordinate amount for their infrastructure. If it wasn’t economically feasible without VC/Nvidia money 3 years ago, how is it possibly economically feasible now at 10x prices for things like memory?

It's possible to be economically feasible. It requires the ability to pay off the capex. Not only do they have to pay off their loans in record time (prob 2-3 years), they also have to keep spending every 3 years because the failure rate of GPUs is something like 20%. In addition they need to complete building out the stuff they've started, which means not failing to acquire land, energy, and water (the most dangerously rare and absolutely necessary resource for AI), not dealing with collective bargaining, nor any increased shortages or price hikes in materials. So there is a lot of risk.

Ballpark that they need to make around 110 billion a year, each, to break even on these investments. Let's estimate 550 billion a year in necessary profit required for the major frontier companies. That means there needs to be 550 billion of money, available to customers today, that isn't being spent on anything else, that they will now spend on AI. Maybe some of that comes from increased value, efficiency, or layoffs. But 550 billion is not a small amount of money.

Spread over the whole globe, the cash is there. But it is a hunt for cash, combined with a battle to successfully complete their buildouts, keep them running, and make bank, before the bookie comes knocking.

The railroad panics of the 19th century (and subsequent depressions) happened because they over-leveraged private capital without the ability to profit from it quick enough. So it really is a question of 1) can they really build it all, and 2) will people really pay for it all. If either answer is No, we are looking at economic catastrophe.

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#258
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Memory fab build out times are years not months. The existing ones already run 24/7. If these companies could pull more supply out of thin air they would, but they cannot.

Would they? Cartels aren't known for massively increasing production to satisfy all demand. Far from it I'd say, they're more likely to expand supply to such a level that they can still reap massive profits. Very few countries/companies have the knowhow and willingness to be able to build more. OPEC is a perfect example of this behaviour. They set hearly production goals to keep prices high. Or the Quebec Maple Syrup…

> Cartels aren't known for massively increasing production to satisfy all demand.

Don't worry they will leave money on the table and lobby for protectionism when china comes and eats their lunch.

Re: Memory prices climb 500% in 12 months

#260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it makes you feel better. The US government looks like it might start removing some of the 28k troops that are stationed in South Korea over this. No reason to keep them in a country that enables this sort of behavior.

Probably for the best. No hosting nation of imperialism has ever benefited and now we see what the US is willing to throw away because their corporations are upset.

If there is something Korea doesn’t lack, it’s manpower.

The US troops are more likely there as a political shield. Indiscriminate bombing would kill them too, hence drag the US into war so any enemies of S Korea have to act judiciously.

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