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Mass Shootings, Political Correctness, and Magical Thinking

diegobasch.com

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Re: Mass Shootings, Political Correctness, and Magical Thinking

#71

Post by Anechoic »

hga wrote: post #54
rictic wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putting weapons in the hands of teachers and other school officials makes intuitive sense, however the case where it will need to be used is very rare, yet to be useful the weapons will need to be readily available at all times. As a result, it's plausible that the total magnitude of injury would be higher due to accident, misuse, etc.

It is plausible, but on the other hand, how rare are fires in schools? We extensively prepare for those (and as it goes, something like 19 out of the top 20 mass murders in the US were arsons). "Readily available" can be addressed by concealed handguns that aren't too easy to get to; you might have to give an attacker a "first bite of the apple" in favor of making them too accessible. On the other hand, a few M4s in…

how rare are fires in schools? We extensively prepare for those

Teachers/staff prepare for those by knowing how to evacuate students from the schools and calling 911. They aren't expected to actually fight fires, aside from using a fire extinguisher.

"Readily available" can be addressed by concealed handguns that aren't too easy to get to; you might have to give an attacker a "first bite of the apple" in favor of making them too accessible. On the other hand, a few M4s in a quick to open safe in the principle's office ought to be doable, as long as the staffers there have the right attitudes, to "march towards the sound of canons".

In order for that to be effective and safe, those teachers/staffers will have to regularly train with those weapons in addition to their other duties. Look at the NYPD - we have a population (police) that are trained to use firearms and have to qualify at certain intervals and yet their rates of accidental firings were so high that they needed to have their handguns modified to reduce those accidents. Despite their training, their hitrate when they actually use their weapons on duty is abysmal.

Unless you have teachers/staff that are already firearms enthusiasts, they are probably going to be reluctant to add range time to their calendar, and putting a firearm in the hands of a poorly trained user will end badly.

Re: Mass Shootings, Political Correctness, and Magical Thinking

#72

Post by hga »

mc32 wrote: post #65
csense wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But is that the best comparison? Yes, it is. You have a limited amount of resources -- in this case, tax dollars and political capital. If you're spending dollars or votes to save lives, you should spend them on the thing which saves the most lives per dollar spent. > What about comparing it to frequency and impact in other countries? Another commenter on this article said that this comparison indicates that gun co…

I think that makes sense. I think what I was reading sounded like "there might be less gun violence over there, but don't look into why, it's not worth your while". My thought was that maybe it is worth our while to look into why. when one decides upon controlling guns, it would be prudent to grandparent people in. New rights revocation would only be applied to the upcoming generations. This way you don't alienate a…

You think parents and grandparents care that little about their descendents' future? That they're that selfish? (Do note we apparently have very different worldviews, my side sees widespread gun ownership as a good thing; you don't have to agree with that, just agree that there are 10s of millions like me.)

I'm afraid you're wrong, and are proposing just another way to spark the 2nd American Civil War, which I'd rather avoid. (I'm assuming you won't repeal the 2nd Amendment first, since I can't see that happening politically in the foreseeable future.)

Re: Mass Shootings, Political Correctness, and Magical Thinking

#73

Post by grecy »

diego wrote: post #59
grecy wrote: post #44

Not once does the author dare to compare homicide rates to other developed countries. You're almost twice as likely to be killed by a gun because you live in the United States vs. the next developed country (Finland). You're 2.6 times as likely to be killed than the next country, Canada. Something is very wrong here. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentiona...

Author here, see my previous post plotting homicides vs gun ownership across countries: http://diegobasch.com/homicides-vs-gun-ownership Yes, the average American (not necessarily you, it varies a lot depending on where you live) is more likely to be killed by a gun than the average person in Finland. That is completely irrelevant to my post. It's not a competition among countries, it's about making the US better. "D…

> It's not a competition among countries, it's about making the US better.

But you conclude there is no need to fix the current problem. Comparing America to other Developed countries clearly shows there is.

Re: Mass Shootings, Political Correctness, and Magical Thinking

#74

Post by metalsahu »

Steko wrote: post #47

"I would start by measuring the magnitude of mass shootings as a problem... That’s an average of 18 deaths per year. For comparison, three times as many die from lightning strikes." This is a bullshit red herring designed to ignore 99.8% of the gun homicides that take place each year in the US [1]. Gun control works to control much more than just mass shootings. [1] Using 8K as a rough estimate for annual gun deaths…

I think most people have trouble visualizing effects of policy because the changes are not immediate and hence not discernible. So instead of trying to convince people why gun control can help reduce mass shootings, lets do the opposite. Let me try to convince you to legalize the use of bazookas, a portable antitank weapon. Do we feel safer in this new world? You need to draw a line in the sand for controlling the use of lethal weapons and I think that line starts with assault weapons - rifles that can mow down an entire room in a minute.

Another flawed argument is that these incidents are small anomalies which can't be controlled by regulatory changes. Yes, if you can categorically prove that this is just a blimp on the charts. Anecdotally it feels like this is spreading, increasing in frequency. At what point are you going to put your foot down and push for changes? Some social behaviors tend to be pretty viral, inspiring a new set of perpetrators. Lets treat this with caution and not bury it under the carpet of data & statistics.

Re: Mass Shootings, Political Correctness, and Magical Thinking

#75

Post by Todd »

hga wrote: post #49
csense wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> tasers A melee weapon versus a deadly ranged weapon is going to be a poor matchup. > guns with rubber bullets If you're the good guy who's doing the most damage, but it's non-lethal, non-debilitating damage, you'd better be prepared to draw aggro. My guess is that only a teacher with a gun would have had a decent chance of ending the massacre early. My understanding of tactics is largely based on video games. Anyon…

You're absolutely right; I have done a fair amount of tactical learning and training and have been shooting since 1st grade or so in 1967 (sic). Tasers can be ignored by many people and defeated by thick clothing and perhaps leather jackets. If you desperately need to stop someone ASAP, rubber bullets are subpar unless they approach lethal energies, for obvious reasons, and a lot of school teacher types wouldn't be a…

The taser and rubber bullet example was just an example. They could also have a cabinet with three M4s. The point is that it would be great if we could discuss defensive and offensive measures. There are many teachers who have concealed permits (and thus the FBI background check) who are forced to leave their weapon at home. Many of them would be perfectly capable of wielding a weapon and it would cost schools next to nothing. Again, just examples. It's great to see the point being discussed.

Re: Mass Shootings, Political Correctness, and Magical Thinking

#76

Post by grecy »

RyanMcGreal wrote: post #63
Todd wrote: post #16

I'm not looking forward to the coming months. It's going to be a political circus, with each side clamoring to push or protect their already strongly held beliefs and positions. I really wish we would have a meaningful debate over the best tools and strategies for protecting people in large groups in public places. Because of the delay of so-called first responders, it is really left to the people who are there to ta…

America has got to be the only country in the industrialized world where it seems reasonable to respond to mass shootings (and shootings in general) by suggesting that more people should have guns. Here's a scatter plot of firearms per 100,000 and gun homocides per 100 for OECD countries: http://i.imgur.com/ZAI3T.png Needless to say, the dot in the top right corner is the USA> Data is from here: http://www.guardian.c…

I believe this is because America was founded by violence, and the "I'll shoot you if you try to take what's mine" mentality that continues to this day.

It's not a peaceful place.

Re: Mass Shootings, Political Correctness, and Magical Thinking

#77

Post by amckenna »

rickmb wrote: post #58

The scale of the problem isn't in itself an argument for doing or not doing something about. The emotional impact is most definitely an important factor, and not something that can simply be argued away with numbers. Most people don't live in fear of cancer or lightning strikes, unless they find themselves in the middle of an asbestos filled building or right underneath a lightning storm. The knowledge however that s…

The fear of lightning while in a thunderstorm is rational, the fear of a rogue shooter (outside of a war zone or extremely violent neighborhood) is not.

People's fear, by in large, is not rational. Many people would get into a car on a rainy Friday night with little hesitation or thought of risk, yet they are deliberately putting themselves in harms way.

What the author is trying to get across is that public policy should focus on things it can track its effectiveness on and things it can solve.

When choosing where to spend time and money, the odds are exactly what people should be focusing on.

Re: Mass Shootings, Political Correctness, and Magical Thinking

#78

Post by jack-r-abbit »

bsg75 wrote: post #61
gonzo wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

perhaps we could employ retired police officers as "school guards". They have the training. Many of them are still in their 40s and 50s.

In some states, non-active LEOs (Law Enforcement Officers) would be prevented by law from being armed, especially as private citizens on school property. H.R.218 is not widely accepted enough to provide for this ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_Enforcement_Officers_Safety... ) In my state many middle and high schools have assigned SROs (School Resource Officers / Deputies), whose primary role is not protection, but…

just to clarify, I was not advocating prison like barriers. I don't know the name of the type glass that is not bullet proof, per se, but even when penetrated with a bullet it still would not allow entry. I've seen glass that has the criss-cross wires in it that is not bullet proof, but the wires make it very difficult to smash out/though. Obviously I don't know the specifics of exactly how he gained entry other than the reported "shot his way in". But if it had taken him 30-60 secs longer to get in... would some lives have been saved?

Re: Mass Shootings, Political Correctness, and Magical Thinking

#79

Post by joshuahedlund »

tthomas48 wrote: post #41
pc86 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something gun control advocates seem to forget is that gun ownership is a Constitutional right for Americans. You cannot compare it to driving a car, or buying a television, or buying something from Amazon. If you're going to compare to something else for the purposes of limiting and regulating it, you need to compare to voting, assembling, practicing your faith or some other Constitutional right. When you are requir…

Remember it's an amendment . Which means it can be repealed. We also at one point had an amendment outlawing all liquor and then another that repealed it. The inverse could be done easily with the 2nd. I'd imagine it's something that won't be out of the question in about 20-40 years. Gun owners are overwhelmingly white, male and older. A demographic that is dying of old age.

This is a trend I would expect too, but the data does not appear to support it. Gun control has actually become consistently less popular over the last two decades[1]. I actually don't have a clue why, as it seems to counter other various demographic/political trends.

[1]http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/files/2012/07...

Re: Mass Shootings, Political Correctness, and Magical Thinking

#80

Post by hga »

purephase wrote: post #55
jbellis wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, but a common argument from gun owners is that if you're feeling homicidal, you'll find a way to commit murder with or without a gun. Looking at all homicides vs gun ownership seems to bear that out. In fact, there appears to be a negative correlation with gun ownership: http://diegobasch.com/homicides-vs-gun-ownership (Can we start abbreviating Correlation Is Not Causation as CINC now? In any case, if you're go…

Outside of higher-yield weapons like bombs, guns are the fastest, lightest and easiest-to-use methods for murdering the most number of people in the shortest amount of time. It seems insane to me (as a Canadian citizen) that the pro-gun folks continue to peddle that safety comes from increasing the number of "responsible" carriers. Here are the issues that I see with this: 1. The assumption that all gun users are tra…

Errr, you're ignoring the highest casualty mass murders, at least in the US, which were done by arson. Maybe not "fastest", but otherwise very "competitive" with firearms. I can't track a list down, but in a recent discussion someone mentioned counting something like 19 out of the top 20 mass murders in the US.
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