Live data from Hacker News

Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

nytimes.com

81–83 of 83 posts

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#81
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So you are postulating a world where more people compete for a fixed set of goods and services? Is that what I said? I thought I said there's a delay between an increase in demand and an increase in supply, which results in an increase in the price level. In a world of constantly increasing demand you have a constantly increasing price level. In other words, real inflation. In a world of stagnating population growt…

You were describing a world in which regulatory and material constraints prevent growth in supply to meet demand. As a simplified model, consider an economy consisting of only medical services (one of your supplied examples). Then: Real GDP per capita = gross medical services provided / population If population goes up but gross medical services stay flat, real gdp per capita falls. Nominal GDP per capita can rise of…

> Being temporary just means that real GDP per capita will eventually reach it's previous level - a temporary Malthusian nightmare rather than a permanent one.

Human beings aren't static units of consumption and production.

Most productivity gains which result in real GDP per capita growth can only manifest themselves at specific economies of scale. Economies of scale realized after specific demand levels are reached as a result of growing populations.

The pressures which lead to innovation are directly tied to the pressures caused by additional demand and insufficient supply.

Can you name a single country with a decreasing population and a growing GDP? Or even a growing per capita GDP?

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#82
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You were describing a world in which regulatory and material constraints prevent growth in supply to meet demand. As a simplified model, consider an economy consisting of only medical services (one of your supplied examples). Then: Real GDP per capita = gross medical services provided / population If population goes up but gross medical services stay flat, real gdp per capita falls. Nominal GDP per capita can rise of…

> Being temporary just means that real GDP per capita will eventually reach it's previous level - a temporary Malthusian nightmare rather than a permanent one. Human beings aren't static units of consumption and production. Most productivity gains which result in real GDP per capita growth can only manifest themselves at specific economies of scale. Economies of scale realized after specific demand levels are reached…

Remember what this article is about?

Japan.

  Population
  2005 	127,767,994 	+0.7%
  2010 	128,057,352 	+0.2%
  2012 (est.) 	127,530,000 	−0.4%
Per Capita GDP continues to rise.

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=ja&v=67

EDIT: This is, of course, also not related to inflation, as Japan has had deflation for years.

http://www.rateinflation.com/inflation-rate/japan-historical...

So perhaps I am not wrong on a profound level after all, considering my views are echoed by reality? Just throwing it out there...

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#83
post #82
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Being temporary just means that real GDP per capita will eventually reach it's previous level - a temporary Malthusian nightmare rather than a permanent one. Human beings aren't static units of consumption and production. Most productivity gains which result in real GDP per capita growth can only manifest themselves at specific economies of scale. Economies of scale realized after specific demand levels are reached…

Remember what this article is about? Japan. Population 2005 127,767,994 +0.7% 2010 128,057,352 +0.2% 2012 (est.) 127,530,000 −0.4% Per Capita GDP continues to rise. http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=ja&v=67 EDIT: This is, of course, also not related to inflation, as Japan has had deflation for years. http://www.rateinflation.com/inflation-rate/japan-historical... So perhaps I am not wrong on a profound level after…

Why are you using purchasing power parity data? Japanese people don't live in America. They live in Japan. You are introducing local factors from the US into the data.

According to this:

https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&...

Japan's population begins to stagnate around 1996 or so.

Use this chart and restrict the data from 1996 to today.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-per-capita-at-curr...

Now use this chart:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/gdp-growth-annual

Again, restrict from 1996 and onward. Then select trend. A nice downward line trending toward 0.

The true effects of a stagnating population won't be felt for years. As the article notes, Japan's population is aging rapidly. That means fewer and fewer productive members.

Post reply on HN