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Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

reuters.com

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Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#131

Post by fg137 »

triceratops wrote: post #130
fg137 wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You should read what Ed Zitron is actually saying instead of just making things up. "is bearish on everything to do with AI", "(not) see the value in the technology" You totally got it wrong.

> "(not) see the value in the technology" To be fair, and I haven't read Zitron in the last 6 months because I have a busy life, previously he also said AI was mostly useless. If he's come around on coding agents, I don't know.

That's totally fine, just don't engage in discussions and post uninformed comments (which you haven't, it appears, but just as a principle)

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#132

Post by trollbridge »

lqstuart wrote: post #122
trollbridge wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A rapidly depreciating asset class of something that loses almost all its value in a few years and can't be repaired?

Worked for crypto altcoins, after a fashion, and these are almost entirely the same people

The best part about the AI boom is how much less I have to hear about crypto.

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#133

Post by fooker »

watwut wrote: post #109
fooker wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, this is how all of economics works. A Toyota dealership arranges a loan for you. Through a bank for a used vehicle, sometimes through Toyota itself for new cars. A house builder will routinely take on part of the loan providing burden to get some of the interest. Even someone selling you their thirty year old house will often provide seller financing. You may have ideological opinions against this, which is fi…

It is strained analogy, heavily. I am not paid by Toyota. I am vetted for my ability to pay the loan. Me buying a car with borrowed money is not circular financing. If most of Toyota earnings went from money they borrowed to me, it would be an issue. But, in fact, that is not how Toyota business works.

Car manufacturers, famously, have a pretty decent fraction of their revenue coming from their financing subsidiaries.

> I am vetted for my ability to pay the loan

Exactly!

Now see the article we are commenting on. Nvidia reduced the loan amount, presumably because they had doubts about OpenAI being able to pay it back.

The framework used to loan you money for buying a car and loaning a company billions of dollars to buy GPUs is largely the same. That's one of the accomplishments of modern economics.

Of course it can and does fail, but everything can go wrong.

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#134

Post by fooker »

bonesss wrote: post #94
fooker wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a problem when there's 10x leverage AND the underlying asset massively deprecates in value. Neither of those look likely yet.

Taking a multi-decade perspective, I wonder if our general analysis is focused too much on the initial wave of LLM tech and current gen GPUs. Owning a massive data center connected to water and power and network that can be targeted or converted to developing needs seems like a decent problem to have for the big cloud companies. We have compute hungry companies and media, in addition to cryptocurrencies etc, and we’l…

You're right.

This is more like a real estate cash grab.

I'd guess that it'll only get more and more difficult to obtain permits to do this in future. And expensive.

Similar to how if you want to buy land and build a house, it's pretty much impossible nowadays in the vicinity of a decently sized city.

But fifty year old houses are dime a dozen.

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#135

Post by jimbo808 »

fooker wrote: post #43
jimbo808 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kinda silly to follow your “prove it” challenge with an absurd claim you most certainly cannot prove, much less support with evidence.

It was not a "prove it" challenge. I'm pointing out that there's no known information theoretic constraint about the impossibility of frontier AI models being improved to fit/run on a small GPU. Please do not make up plausible sounding science facts.

Please do not assert I am making a claim I’m not making. Information-theoretic constraints exist. My comment does not require some specific, hard constraint to have been clearly defined, for my point to be valid.

If I were to say you could put a motorcycle in my car’s trunk, it would be perfect valid for me to say there are space constraints that make your idea unlikely. The same is true in this discussion, even though I have not computed the exact dimensions of the motorcycle and my car’s trunk.

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#136

Post by fooker »

jimbo808 wrote: post #135
fooker wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was not a "prove it" challenge. I'm pointing out that there's no known information theoretic constraint about the impossibility of frontier AI models being improved to fit/run on a small GPU. Please do not make up plausible sounding science facts.

Please do not assert I am making a claim I’m not making. Information-theoretic constraints exist. My comment does not require some specific, hard constraint to have been clearly defined, for my point to be valid. If I were to say you could put a motorcycle in my car’s trunk, it would be perfect valid for me to say there are space constraints that make your idea unlikely. The same is true in this discussion, even thou…

Your claim was about frontier intelligence and midrange consumer GPUs. That's a pretty specific constraint.

Sure, there could be some point between a midrange consumer GPU and a pocket calculator where you can't fit enough 'intelligence'. But we really have no idea if the constraint is information theoretic or something completely different. Demonstrating that is the hard part, not finding the exact number of bits.

Talking about motorcycles in car trunks is just lazy false analogy here.

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#137

Post by fooker »

amazingamazing wrote: post #44
jimbo808 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kinda silly to follow your “prove it” challenge with an absurd claim you most certainly cannot prove, much less support with evidence.

I will not claim a 5070, but there is already evidence in nature that you can get very good general intelligence with an order of magnitude less wattage. There are constraints of course- training takes way longer.

I wonder if we'll eventually find that Darwin style evolution gets us close to the global optima of intelligence given constraints like size and energy.

We don't really have the tools to reason about this stuff yet. Exciting times.

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#138

Post by [deleted] »

fooker wrote: post #136
jimbo808 wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please do not assert I am making a claim I’m not making. Information-theoretic constraints exist. My comment does not require some specific, hard constraint to have been clearly defined, for my point to be valid. If I were to say you could put a motorcycle in my car’s trunk, it would be perfect valid for me to say there are space constraints that make your idea unlikely. The same is true in this discussion, even thou…

Your claim was about frontier intelligence and midrange consumer GPUs. That's a pretty specific constraint. Sure, there could be some point between a midrange consumer GPU and a pocket calculator where you can't fit enough 'intelligence'. But we really have no idea if the constraint is information theoretic or something completely different. Demonstrating that is the hard part, not finding the exact number of bits. T…

[deleted]

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#139

Post by jimbo808 »

fooker wrote: post #136
jimbo808 wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please do not assert I am making a claim I’m not making. Information-theoretic constraints exist. My comment does not require some specific, hard constraint to have been clearly defined, for my point to be valid. If I were to say you could put a motorcycle in my car’s trunk, it would be perfect valid for me to say there are space constraints that make your idea unlikely. The same is true in this discussion, even thou…

Your claim was about frontier intelligence and midrange consumer GPUs. That's a pretty specific constraint. Sure, there could be some point between a midrange consumer GPU and a pocket calculator where you can't fit enough 'intelligence'. But we really have no idea if the constraint is information theoretic or something completely different. Demonstrating that is the hard part, not finding the exact number of bits. T…

Then I give up. Best of luck.

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#140

Post by lucianbr »

ethbr1 wrote: post #129
lucianbr wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is "the matter" completely lacks any substance. "An insider told me NVidia spent 10 billions on hamburgers yesterday." "An insider told me NVidia is thinking about maybe spending up to 10 billions on hamburgers or some foodstuffs by 2050". Can you spot any differences?

The former isn't of interest ti HN, the latter is, because we're current obsessed with the second derivative of hamburgers' growth curve.

May be so, still your quote doesn't make any sense as a reply to my comment.

"This article is about nothing". "Well of course it is, they say right on the page they talked to some people".

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