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Qwen 3.8 27B is excellent, but it defaults to overthinking things

simonwillison.net

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Re: Qwen 3.8 27B is excellent, but it defaults to overthinking things

#131
post #91
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tried yesterday on my own laptop (a UltraCore 7 255H without dedicated GPU,with 32 GB RAM), it wasn't even starting thinking, even on a small context window (65k)

I think not much can run without a dedicated GPU

What's the story with Mac laptops? Worth a try?

Re: Qwen 3.8 27B is excellent, but it defaults to overthinking things

#132
I run mine on an M5 Max with just 48GB of (V)RAM, and it fits nearly twice in Q4. Works perfectly. I'm kinda glad I didn't spend the extra $2400 to get 128. We don't really need more... and that's a good thing (tm). God knows I thought about it in store. But I thought... maybe this year will be the year of the local model? Maybe soon we won't need that much RAM? I was right.

The fact that it runs at 15tk/s in power saving mode, and 30 in perf. mode blows my mind. I can run the model in the background, coding something for me in OpenCode, hosted in LMStudio, while doing something else. What a world we live in.

Having something close to human intelligence (at least for reasoning and code), running on a laptop, is amazing.

Re: Qwen 3.8 27B is excellent, but it defaults to overthinking things

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All white collar work will be done by AI soon, there won’t be scaling down, just scaling up. I do food trucks and festivals and I’ve got AI doing so much of my non-meatspace work now that I’m buying $10-$20 a day in tokens. At that rate, hardware starts to look cheap, and I have less of a use case for it than most white collar workers.

I would also be interested in what you use AI for. Is it marketing? bureaucracy?

Yes. Bureaucracy for sure when I throw festivals. ChatGPT pulls permits for me. (I think that uses a lot of tokens because of the browser control?) Manages the admin side along with some tools I built in Lovable via mcp servers.

Marketing definitely. My food truck side is relatively high volume and it manages my kitchen and warehouse side, basically generating all of the instructions my employees follow, managing and updating my PoSes, creating signage assets for specials, etc.

Reels/posts production and managing ad spend.

Here’s a fun one. I switched payroll providers after several years and suddenly my unemployment insurance rate went from 0.8% to 12.75% which is borderline debilitating to me. I knew something was wrong but not what and I work a lot of hours and calling the state takes forever and is usually unhelpful.

ChatGPT figured out that it was a penalty rate and dug in for me. Turns out because I’m seasonal and have no payroll for one quarter of every year, Gusto did not file a quarterly wage report, so even though I owed nothing I was delinquent. Gotta love government, it’s the only place where you can be delinquent for $0.

ChatGPT filed the report and requested a retroactive re-rate, which they granted. I’m sure I would have figured this out eventually but it would have taken hours, or $5 in tokens.

Re: Qwen 3.8 27B is excellent, but it defaults to overthinking things

#134

I feel like the current “reasoning” that LLMs are doing has got to be a dead end eventually. Every time I have to read another answer with “but wait” and “Actually,” as they “reason” their way to a (sometimes) better answer, I feel like there’s got to be a way to just shortcut to the actual correct answer instead of burning all these token going in circles mimicking actual thought

I was pretty happy with Depseek Pro in Opencode util I discovered I can see the thinking trace by clicking on the "thinking..." communicate. All those seemingly unnecessary "but wait" messages are frustrating to read. But at least to some extent it's just model taking time thinking through the problem, and the trace produced doesn't have to be representative of what happens internally: https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.15758

Re: Qwen 3.8 27B is excellent, but it defaults to overthinking things

#135
post #30

To me, the amazing thing is that we now have local models that rival the reasoning of high end models from about a year ago. I hope this trend continues.

Unlike cloud infra in general which offers things like automatic backups, regional redundancy, and effectively unlimited scalability, it seems like the value proposition of cloud LLM gets ever shakier. * Many businesses don't need frontier level intelligence anyway. * It's completely stateless. If your local LLM machine catches fire? Nothing was lost. Buy another.

Centralized inference can easily increase batch size, leading to huge efficiency gains in the usual scenario where most users have just one or very few session. Using local resources efficiently requires some way to increase the batch size. I'm not sure if we are there yet.

Re: Qwen 3.8 27B is excellent, but it defaults to overthinking things

#137
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think not much can run without a dedicated GPU

What's the story with Mac laptops? Worth a try?

The author tested in on an M5 laptop too:

> It feels pretty slow on both the M5 Mac and the DGX Spark.

Re: Qwen 3.8 27B is excellent, but it defaults to overthinking things

#138
post #123
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It should just about be usable in 32GB.

On a consumer hardware it would be nicer. With no GPU/iGPU or a 6-8GB VRAM.

It would be somewhat slow on a CPU only machine, but it still works.

Besides, Macbooks with 32GB RAM is consumer hardware, just maybe on the higher end.

Re: Qwen 3.8 27B is excellent, but it defaults to overthinking things

#139
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole cloud story lies on two aspects: - Hyperscaling “we are going to serve billions of people in our applications”, which is becoming increasing unlikely as regional tech companies become more dominant than than the global one (this one is as much about geopolitics as technology) - Operations is hard, in which case non-frontier models should be increasingly capable. Devops for small-ish deployment is one of the…

I don’t disagree but saying “cloud will change in the next 8-20y-ish” is a bit of a non-argument, you’re not really stating any thesis to speak of; Change is a given over that time frame.

Ah it was not explicit enough.

They will die, for some definitions of death -- I don't think they disappear, but they should be a niche, rather than the dominant doctrine.

Re: Qwen 3.8 27B is excellent, but it defaults to overthinking things

#140
post #66

“The fact that a 17GB file can do all of this stuff on my home machines is a miracle. Once again, I’m delighted and amazed at how much progress local models have made this year.” I think that should be the blinking headline - this shows what can be done with consumer hardware.

I thought the same thing, and I generally do a lot of animation in my work, and the results in motion graphics with Qwen are impressive, I really fell in love with it

Curious how you are using it? Making blender plugins?
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