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Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

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Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#351

Post by ben_w »

8note wrote: post #248
WillAdams wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the point of a futures market is to have a reliable supply which matches demand and allows everyone who works to produce and use a given commodity to have a reasonable expectation of demand and how production should be matched to it. Goldman-Sachs should _not_ be inserting themselves into profiting on the poor's daily bread. https://theecologist.org/2011/sep/13/how-goldman-sachs-start...

the point of a system is what it does. if the futures market lets a bank make money off bread, thats the point of it

The profit to be made on futures trading is there to supply the capital needed to fund the benefit to the people selling those futures, i.e the farmers.

Accurately and fairly pricing risk is a whole field in its own right, one whose surface I have only lightly touched upon in my life by learning of actuaries and Black-Scholes. Free lunches don't tend to last long in finance, which means all profit margins everywhere, from share dividends and growth, to tresury bonds, to futures, to mortgages, tend to similar risk-adjusted real return.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#352

Post by ben_w »

cvwright wrote: post #324
8note wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

rich americans will have their steaks. poor americans will starve outside the walls

I come from a lower class US background. I assure you, take one look at us and you’ll instantly see that very few of us are in any danger of starving.

While this is absolutely the case today, and obviously so, history has shown governments are quite capable of starving their people, they have managed this even by mismanagement while those regions still exported food.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#353

Post by mh- »

burnt-resistor wrote: post #110
mh- wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in Waco right now and the car said it was 107 today. If one more person says "but it's a dry heat"...

Car temperature sensors tend to be inaccurate because they're often in the Sun or some other place affected by baking a car not in a garage. Check a thermometer in the shade. The weather data stations reported an average of 101 ℉ / 38 ℃ for Waco. It's hot, and especially feels worse with Southern subtropical humidity. OTOH, 101 in California with 0-15% humidity, it would just be a bit annoying. Higher humidity makes…

I'm aware of this phenomenon and it's why I specified "the car said". However, I find it a more useful temperature reading if that's where I'm spending my time - walking around on the street.

Knowing what the temperature is at a far-flung regional airport in a shaded housing is not especially interesting to me. I understand the scientific value of collecting that data, but just in terms of lived experience.

And yes, I live in SoCal where it's rarely above 20% humidity when this hot, which is why I was whining about it there. :)

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#354

Post by SJC_Hacker »

dluan wrote: post #95
chrischen wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, closing the straight of hormuz has probably put a dent in carbon emissions.

Temporarily, all of the middle east oil infrastructure will be rebuilt because their biggest customer still has no real tangible plan to wean itself off.

China is their biggest customer

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#355

Post by burnt-resistor »

mh- wrote: post #353
burnt-resistor wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Car temperature sensors tend to be inaccurate because they're often in the Sun or some other place affected by baking a car not in a garage. Check a thermometer in the shade. The weather data stations reported an average of 101 ℉ / 38 ℃ for Waco. It's hot, and especially feels worse with Southern subtropical humidity. OTOH, 101 in California with 0-15% humidity, it would just be a bit annoying. Higher humidity makes…

I'm aware of this phenomenon and it's why I specified "the car said". However, I find it a more useful temperature reading if that's where I'm spending my time - walking around on the street. Knowing what the temperature is at a far-flung regional airport in a shaded housing is not especially interesting to me. I understand the scientific value of collecting that data, but just in terms of lived experience. And yes,…

I'm not blaming, I'm just saying it's usually an upper estimate. Although, in winter prior to warm up, it could be below ambient.

SoCal anywhere near the coast of LA-SD, people complain if it's not 66-73 ℉ like they're dying. ;D I don't need to tell you but go inland or over a valley, and the mercury climbs like a lost balloon.

The inland valley way, way NorCal by Sac could be 110 ℉ @ 5% humidity, is hot-ish but not bad. There, it's easy to get dehydrated, as opposed to somewhere like NYC, Florida, or here where summers include free in-clothing showers and saunas. :)

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#356

Post by sfn42 »

alt227 wrote: post #282
sfn42 wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The global average temperature was about 1.5C lower back then.

You miss the point, the warming of El Nino is relative. El Nino warmed the earth more back then relative to average temperatures than it currently is now.

You are missing my point. The planet is warmer now, less stable. That makes a smaller relative amount of warming take us even further away from what used to be normal.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#357

Post by hananova »

tzs wrote: post #278
hananova wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did not see any cookies on my machine. Maybe it sets cookies outside of the EU?

It uses a session cookie to remember that you are logged in. Commenting requires being logged in, so it definitely tried to set one on your machine. Maybe you've got an extension or something that prevents the cookie from actually getting stored?

I think you and I interpreted "this site" differently. I interpreted it as the site being linked to, this referring to the subject of the comment. I think you're interpreting it as hacker news?

At this point I'm not sure what was actually meant. The website of the article doesn't set any cookies on my machine, and HN's session cookie likely doesn't need ePrivacy directive consent since it's actually functional.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#358

Post by js8 »

timr wrote: post #244
mr_toad wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Go back and compare some of the earlier IPCC reports and see which bits have been left out. The worst case scenarios keep getting removed, and the best case scenarios are based on projections of CO2 emissions which are highly unrealistic. Official reports have been downplaying the impact for decades, while countries have been setting climate targets that they had no intention of achieving.

Arguing that the IPCC report is "downplaying the impact" because of corruption -- which is what you seem to be doing, without evidence -- is an implausible assertion. The far more likely conclusion is that you're wrong.

They are not saying what the cause of the "downplay" is. It might be as simple as when scientists speaks publicly and present a consensus, they will stay on the safe side and give conservative estimates.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#359

Post by everforward »

vrganj wrote: post #133
roenxi wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean sure but if we're just going to give people the money to buy food what is the complaint about big corporations charging more? It isn't like anyone would be unable to afford food, because a welfare state would imply a standing agreement to buy everyone food at the taxpayer's expense if required. And it is entirely reasonable for prices to go up when there is a shortage, the people who built up stockpiles in adv…

> the people who built up stockpiles in advance need to be compensated for their foresight Why? And it's not foresight that sets those people apart, it's having the resources to hoard the food and the ethical framework that allows them to profiteer off their fellow humans misfortune. Why should we reward that? > Someone has to be stockpiling food. Sure, like a government or a coop or a commune or whatever. Some insti…

It cost them more than normal food to maintain the stockpile. I’m not for profiteering but maintaining a stockpile implies excess production that spoils rather than being sold.

It does seem fair to pay enough to cover that at least.

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