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Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

reuters.com

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Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#41

Post by jimbo808 »

fooker wrote: post #38
jimbo808 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s no reason to assume frontier-level intelligence eventually collapses all the way onto a midrange consumer GPU. In fact, there are quite a few reasons not to assume that (information-theoretic constraints, etc).

There's no information theoretic constraint we know of that prevents this. You will almost surely win a Turing award if you can prove this. It's almost a given that whatever is frontier intelligence today will run on a potato in a few years.

Kinda silly to follow your “prove it” challenge with an absurd claim you most certainly cannot prove, much less support with evidence.

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#42

Post by jkahrs595 »

gymbeaux wrote: post #11

What would happen to Nvidia, Anthropic, OpenAI, if tomorrow someone released an open weights model on HuggingFace that matched performance and accuracy of Opus 5 running locally on an RTX 5070? That won’t happen tomorrow, but it will likely happen someday… what’s the plan beyond “don’t be the one holding the bags?”

Workloads will inflate just as they have been. Remember when llm assisted development used to be good only for a function, then a whole file, then a handful of files, then a code base, then a full stack, etc etc etc.

People will claim to have “enough” even though they already have the equivalent of last years capabilities locally.

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#43

Post by fooker »

jimbo808 wrote: post #41
fooker wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no information theoretic constraint we know of that prevents this. You will almost surely win a Turing award if you can prove this. It's almost a given that whatever is frontier intelligence today will run on a potato in a few years.

Kinda silly to follow your “prove it” challenge with an absurd claim you most certainly cannot prove, much less support with evidence.

It was not a "prove it" challenge.

I'm pointing out that there's no known information theoretic constraint about the impossibility of frontier AI models being improved to fit/run on a small GPU.

Please do not make up plausible sounding science facts.

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#44

Post by amazingamazing »

jimbo808 wrote: post #41
fooker wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no information theoretic constraint we know of that prevents this. You will almost surely win a Turing award if you can prove this. It's almost a given that whatever is frontier intelligence today will run on a potato in a few years.

Kinda silly to follow your “prove it” challenge with an absurd claim you most certainly cannot prove, much less support with evidence.

I will not claim a 5070, but there is already evidence in nature that you can get very good general intelligence with an order of magnitude less wattage.

There are constraints of course- training takes way longer.

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#45

Post by asveikau »

HDBaseT wrote: post #28
cmiles8 wrote: post #26

Nvidia is turning into a savings and loan company that happens to design computer chips on the side. What could possibly go wrong.

The loans will just take longer to repay. There is a market for Anthropic & OpenAI, it just likely doesn't have the 200B profit each year required for the maths to make sense. If shit hits the fan, the companies collapse, then Nvidia gets their money from the investors anyways.

I'm hoping when the shit hits the fan, you can get a sick GPU for cheap.

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#46

Post by notatoad »

gymbeaux wrote: post #11

What would happen to Nvidia, Anthropic, OpenAI, if tomorrow someone released an open weights model on HuggingFace that matched performance and accuracy of Opus 5 running locally on an RTX 5070? That won’t happen tomorrow, but it will likely happen someday… what’s the plan beyond “don’t be the one holding the bags?”

probably not all that much... the market would dip, just like every time a new open weights model gets announced. but hundreds of millions of people aren't going to immediately self-hosting their own models.

the biggest winner in that scenario would be ai providers, who suddenly have a capable model that they can serve much more efficiently. and the incumbents have a whole lot of compute. wouldn't anthropic and openAI just start offering that open weights model at prices that nobody else could compete with?

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#47

Post by zhivota »

notatoad wrote: post #46
gymbeaux wrote: post #11

What would happen to Nvidia, Anthropic, OpenAI, if tomorrow someone released an open weights model on HuggingFace that matched performance and accuracy of Opus 5 running locally on an RTX 5070? That won’t happen tomorrow, but it will likely happen someday… what’s the plan beyond “don’t be the one holding the bags?”

probably not all that much... the market would dip, just like every time a new open weights model gets announced. but hundreds of millions of people aren't going to immediately self-hosting their own models. the biggest winner in that scenario would be ai providers, who suddenly have a capable model that they can serve much more efficiently. and the incumbents have a whole lot of compute. wouldn't anthropic and openA…

They could but then their valuation is no longer justifiable, which breaks a lot of things downstream (loans being the biggie). They'd rather lose money than start making money in a non defensible way.

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#48

Post by gonzo41 »

asveikau wrote: post #45
HDBaseT wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The loans will just take longer to repay. There is a market for Anthropic & OpenAI, it just likely doesn't have the 200B profit each year required for the maths to make sense. If shit hits the fan, the companies collapse, then Nvidia gets their money from the investors anyways.

I'm hoping when the shit hits the fan, you can get a sick GPU for cheap.

it'll be a rack based GPU without video ports. The only thing getting sick GPU's will be landfill when they all burn out and the data center rationalization happens.

Re: Nvidia dramatically reduces amount of OpenAI infra financing it may guarantee

#49

Post by Taikhoom10 »

fooker wrote: post #39
Taikhoom10 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uh no, NVDIA helping startups get financing so they can buy NVDIA chips is inherently damaging because eventually the debtors will not help with the financing and startups will not be able to buy chips.

Again, this is how all of economics works. A Toyota dealership arranges a loan for you. Through a bank for a used vehicle, sometimes through Toyota itself for new cars. A house builder will routinely take on part of the loan providing burden to get some of the interest. Even someone selling you their thirty year old house will often provide seller financing. You may have ideological opinions against this, which is fi…

No, I get this; it is not a problem. It becomes one when they cannot pay back this financing, in the event that they cannot build a sustainable business, which they cannot, because the capital cycle leads to overinvestment, meaning the financiers cannot meet their returns.

https://s-1.vercel.app/posts/the-capital-cycle-theory/

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