Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

severe-weather.eu

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

331–340 of 401 posts

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#331

Post by tsoukase »

dev1ycan wrote: post #296

Lima, Peru... daytime and night time temps are +8-+3 (single day, might be the coldest of the year) degrees celcius, usually should be like 18-16 celcius daytime, it's at 26-21 (single day, might be the coldest of the year) with +6-+8 being the most common... already past mid winter and there hasn't been a single "cold" day yet. Pelicans are mass starving so are sea lions as cold based fish have left the shores, no l…

I am also up in the mountains. I confirm it's the warmest summer for four consecutive times. Something happened in 2023. We may call it a tipping point. Although I enjoy milder winters (goodbye skiing), the summers are not mild anymore.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#332

Post by [deleted] »

throw1234567891 wrote: post #325
SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A plant? You've lost me.

Hurt enough to not be able to physically do things around myself anymore, and not enough to die. Say: a spine broken at third vertebrae. Imagine, can’t even take your own life.

[deleted]

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#333

Post by bamboozled »

zkmon wrote: post #235
bamboozled wrote: post #10

All we needed to do was stop burning fossil fuels we really are fucking dense.

We wanted to exploit all natural resources to maximum extent using our science and tech without any regard to the side effects. The advantage is free. It helps our business. Business gains are human progress. Tech is wonderful. What are you talking about?

Solar and nuclear are also tech.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#334

Post by bbor »

ksec wrote: post #300
izend wrote: post #18

The strongest El Niño ever caused a massive famine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1877%E2%80%931878_El_Ni%C3%B1o...

That is the question I am trying to get from the article. Will this new "keep growing" strongest ever be as bad as the one in 1877. But it keep explaining what El Niño and Super El Niño and how it develops without giving me any context of how strong it will be.

Yes, AFAIU it is far and away the biggest in recorded history. That said, the 1877 one also lined up with one or two other meteorological events by chance that made the famine worse, and it’s my understanding that we don’t know if those will be present this winter or not.

It’s gonna be a weird one…

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#335

Post by bbor »

pelasaco wrote: post #211
defrost wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody in planet modelling has ever suggested that the 3 phase El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exists because of fossil fuel usage. An extreme swing, here and there, has always been part of its nature. The observed change is more and more extreme swings, greater amplitude, higher frequency.

> Nobody in planet modelling has ever suggested that the 3 phase El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) We saw already around 2020 or so that specialists opinions didn't really matter. Feelings and politicians opinions were more relevant... so "nobody in planet modelling" means nothing if Politicians and Activists tries to create this link.. Al Gore, if I remember correctly, and António Guterres, i think last month, tri…

It honestly blows my mind y’all are still around and up to the same ol tricks. Let me guess: you’re still mad about the hockeystick?

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#336

Post by 9dev »

silentmafia wrote: post #165
culi wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, we didn't have the World Food Programme in 1877 which lets us anticipate droughts distribution and crop failures months ahead of time. That being said, the existing energy crisis and fertilizer crisis can significantly compound the negative impacts of this El Niño even if we are able to anticipate it.

another excellent agency for mr. president to target

Give him some shiny toy to play with immediately so he is too distracted to fuck anything up too bad

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#337

Post by nozzlegear »

alt227 wrote: post #280
nozzlegear wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we had to choose between the US decreasing by 36%, and decreasing by 0%, I know which one I would choose if I cared about the climate (which I do).

You care about the climate and you think just cutting emissions in one part of the world to increase them in another is a good thing?

Are we going to pretend that the Chinese have no self determination, and if it weren't for their American overlords, those poor, simple Chinese wouldn't have been duped into pumping so much carbon into the atmosphere? Blaming the US for China's emissions is like a weird climate form of white guilt, it makes no sense and assumes the Chinese had no choice or free will.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#338

Post by dmix »

DangitBobby wrote: post #56
dmix wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and we didn't properly fund renewables because Republican administrations were in the pockets of big oil. The world is a lot bigger than the US and they've all followed pretty much the same trajectory the last two decades. A slow long term investment in R&D/manufacturing techniques, followed by increased adoption when it became economically competitive. Combined with varying levels of government incentives and meas…

I agree the US isn't the only country but I believe at that time we had the resources and clout to make green energy research happen everywhere and export our successes. We were still a global leader at the time both politically and technologically, especially where energy was concerned. And the world certainly took notice and set back the movement when the largest polluter per capita repeatedly signalled it had no i…

> to make green energy research happen everywhere and export our successes

China won there because they can build things, they are also built 60+ nuclear reactors over the past decade. That's the main difference between them and the west. It's not a lack of government grants for green R&D.

They made renewable energy affordable for both themselves and others... by allowing industry to operate efficiently and affordably.

Tesla couldn't build a Lithium Battery plant in California for their electric cars because made it impossible via environmental air regulations. But now the west is benefiting from Chinese production.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#339

Post by wookmaster »

throw1234567891 wrote: post #307
watwut wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have no idea who you are talking about. You want to imply doubt about climate change without saying it, using dog whistles and vague accusations of "feelings". You did not stated a single fact, you apparently dont know much about topic, but you know some experts and politicians opinions are wrong.

Tell us facts. Who’s facts are these facts.

Facts? 42 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide are released into the atmosphere by humans every year changing the atmosphere composition from ~300 ppm 100 years ago to ~420 ppm today. CO2 Is chemically stable in the atmosphere and can persist for centuries. CO2 catches thermal radiation from the earth and traps it.

These are all scientific facts that are indisputable. We can also show that its a fact heat affects weather and its not a very far stretch to trapping more heat every year with more CO2 affects global weather. Trapping more heat across the globe AKA global warming are indisputable facts. We can measure CO2 levels every year and global temperature trends.

Doesnt matter who says it, there's a ton of peer reviewed science for every statement there. What's to dispute?

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#340

Post by defrost »

throw1234567891 wrote: post #306
defrost wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody in planet modelling has ever suggested that the 3 phase El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exists because of fossil fuel usage. An extreme swing, here and there, has always been part of its nature. The observed change is more and more extreme swings, greater amplitude, higher frequency.

[flagged]

Near as I can parse that question, I'd suggest you start with intro calculus and physics, look into heat equations, springs and pendulums.

Level up into delayed oscillators, then look into those models with added noise.

It's a big field.

Post reply on HN