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Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

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Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#301

Post by ksec »

timr wrote: post #188
lukeify wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was inevitable we'd get to the point where climate change began substantially disrupting ecology and human livelihoods. Looks like we're ahead of schedule. People dying from extreme heatwaves, weather, and famines due to climate change has been predicted for decades at this point; and this is exactly the sort of climatic setup that will enable this to happen.

> People dying from extreme heatwaves, weather, and famines due to climate change has been predicted for decades at this point; and this is exactly the sort of climatic setup that will enable this to happen. Yeah, people have been "predicting" it, but the fact is that this is currently mostly hyperbole, driven by bad reporting and activist exaggeration. What is happening, right now, is that winters are mostly getting…

In other words, average temperature is higher is mostly because cold days are shorter and warmer a lot more than hot days is hotter?

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#302

Post by jdlshore »

WheatMillington wrote: post #297
lukeify wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was inevitable we'd get to the point where climate change began substantially disrupting ecology and human livelihoods. Looks like we're ahead of schedule. People dying from extreme heatwaves, weather, and famines due to climate change has been predicted for decades at this point; and this is exactly the sort of climatic setup that will enable this to happen.

Way more people die of being exposed to the cold than exposed to the heat. So you could make a good argument that weather events save more lives than they cost by increasing the temperature of marginal zones where people otherwise freeze.

> Way more people die of being exposed to the cold than exposed to the heat.

I was skeptical of this claim, so I looked it up. You’re right. Globally, about 9x as many people die due to cold-related causes than heat-related causes. It’s not freezing, though, but longer-term effects like kidney failure in elderly people. [1]

I’m still dubious about the argument that weather events could save lives, though, partially because climate change makes weather more extreme, not simply “more pleasant for people in colder climates.”

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/part-one-how-many-people-die-from...

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#303

Post by BigTTYGothGF »

ben_w wrote: post #206
WillAdams wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the point of a futures market is to have a reliable supply which matches demand and allows everyone who works to produce and use a given commodity to have a reasonable expectation of demand and how production should be matched to it. Goldman-Sachs should _not_ be inserting themselves into profiting on the poor's daily bread. https://theecologist.org/2011/sep/13/how-goldman-sachs-start...

A "reliable supply" is fundamentally not possible with all the vagaries of the natural world. Even the Code of Hammurabi makes reference to this*, and we still have "acts of god" in modern parlance. Futures significantly pre-date your link. * https://ehammurabi.org/law/48

We've made a couple advances in food production, storage, and distribution in the decades since Hammurabi last walked the earth.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#304

Post by [deleted] »

ben_w wrote: post #206
WillAdams wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the point of a futures market is to have a reliable supply which matches demand and allows everyone who works to produce and use a given commodity to have a reasonable expectation of demand and how production should be matched to it. Goldman-Sachs should _not_ be inserting themselves into profiting on the poor's daily bread. https://theecologist.org/2011/sep/13/how-goldman-sachs-start...

A "reliable supply" is fundamentally not possible with all the vagaries of the natural world. Even the Code of Hammurabi makes reference to this*, and we still have "acts of god" in modern parlance. Futures significantly pre-date your link. * https://ehammurabi.org/law/48

[deleted]

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#305

Post by theandrewbailey »

throw-the-towel wrote: post #272
Nursie wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s practically our city motto here in Perth, Western Australia. But it’s true, it’s easier to move around in 38C here than 31 and wet in Singapore. Of course you don’t want to be caught in the sun, and those 44C summer days really are something else

How come your air stays dry, when you're literally on the ocean coast?

Some quick research says that the ocean currents there flow north from Antarctica, so it's cold (not much evaporation), and wind mostly blows from the north and east, not from the ocean (west and south).

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#306

Post by throw1234567891 »

defrost wrote: post #109
pelasaco wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A modern 1877 scale event would probably immediately fuel (pun intended) a furious climate change debate, even though attributing the existence of the El Niño itself to fossil fuels would not be scientifically justified... or maybe was the 1877 El Niño caused by fossil fuels (so many Wars happened in those years) ?

Nobody in planet modelling has ever suggested that the 3 phase El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exists because of fossil fuel usage. An extreme swing, here and there, has always been part of its nature. The observed change is more and more extreme swings, greater amplitude, higher frequency.

[flagged]

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#307

Post by throw1234567891 »

watwut wrote: post #257
pelasaco wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

or the said "experts" hungry for media attention.. we saw it all

I have no idea who you are talking about. You want to imply doubt about climate change without saying it, using dog whistles and vague accusations of "feelings". You did not stated a single fact, you apparently dont know much about topic, but you know some experts and politicians opinions are wrong.

Tell us facts. Who’s facts are these facts.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#308

Post by throw1234567891 »

Noaidi wrote: post #6

People really don’t appreciate yet. How really bad this situation is and will be. They’re talking about 1.76°C higher temperatures next year because of this El Niño. Those are climate change temperatures that are not supposed to be around until 2035. So it’ll give us a sneak peek into our future. But the biggest effect and this is noted by many insurance companies now is going to be in places like India. But this is…

Our future is extinction regardless of what we do. It’s a matter of timescale. Plagues, wars, political unrest, asteroids, geological events on the continental scale, super volcano eruptions, poles flipping, the Earth coming closer to the Sun and then moving farther away, iron core rotation slowing down, the Sun swelling and dying. Unless we find a way to evolve into something capable of leaving this planet for good, we are going to go extinct. No carbon taxes and offsets are going to change anything. We are boiling as the proverbial frog, and everything we do is just ”feel good” measures.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#309

Post by lazide »

oklahomasports wrote: post #286
lazide wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Insurance companies pay out over two trillion in claims each year

And what does that have to do with acts of god, or address my comment at all?

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#310

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

throw1234567891 wrote: post #308
Noaidi wrote: post #6

People really don’t appreciate yet. How really bad this situation is and will be. They’re talking about 1.76°C higher temperatures next year because of this El Niño. Those are climate change temperatures that are not supposed to be around until 2035. So it’ll give us a sneak peek into our future. But the biggest effect and this is noted by many insurance companies now is going to be in places like India. But this is…

Our future is extinction regardless of what we do. It’s a matter of timescale. Plagues, wars, political unrest, asteroids, geological events on the continental scale, super volcano eruptions, poles flipping, the Earth coming closer to the Sun and then moving farther away, iron core rotation slowing down, the Sun swelling and dying. Unless we find a way to evolve into something capable of leaving this planet for good,…

Even if we leave the planet we're going to go extinct anyways, but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't try to slow it down.
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