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Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

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Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#291

Post by tecleandor »

pelasaco wrote: post #123
defrost wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody in planet modelling has ever suggested that the 3 phase El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exists because of fossil fuel usage. An extreme swing, here and there, has always been part of its nature. The observed change is more and more extreme swings, greater amplitude, higher frequency.

in one hand i wanted to highlight that if it was today, we - as civilization - would definitely create a link between the events, based on our "feeling" in another hand, i question if we really could rule out, since back in the days, everything that we have was coal.

And you're saying that, based in you "feeling"? Nice.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#292

Post by birdsongs »

Chris660 wrote: post #268

I found myself moved by this recent interview with Prof. Kevin Anderson on the topic of climate change (and associated politics): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBFos_T7cT0 He paints quite a bleak picture of the situation we are in (I tend to agree), but there's also a glimmer of hope in there.

This was a really great listen, thank you!

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#293

Post by deepsun »

epolanski wrote: post #136
deepsun wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another reason why most countries subsidise their agriculture is because in times of war you don't want your enemy to starve you. That's mostly about high calories foods, not fancy salads though.

It would be just easier to not wage war by the way. Can't think of many countries besides Canada and US that would not starve in NATO if such a necessity arose, and that's because they produce lots of cereals. All the other countries in NATO are major food importers.

And the best way to ensure that no one attacks you it is to make strong army and economy.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#294

Post by 01100011 »

alt227 wrote: post #224
Noaidi wrote: post #6

People really don’t appreciate yet. How really bad this situation is and will be. They’re talking about 1.76°C higher temperatures next year because of this El Niño. Those are climate change temperatures that are not supposed to be around until 2035. So it’ll give us a sneak peek into our future. But the biggest effect and this is noted by many insurance companies now is going to be in places like India. But this is…

> But this is something the world has never seen and I mean that literally Lets not forget there have been bigger and hotter events than this in local past. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1877%E2%80%931878_El_Ni%C3%B1o... You may tie this in to climate change in general to prove your point, but this is a discussion about El Nino weather event and it is important to remember the current situation is not unprecedented.

It's hard to rationally discuss this with non-experts as you will immediately be labeled an AGW denying crank and downvoted to oblivion.

Yes, AGW is real. Yes, extreme weather and climate events have occurred before AGW. No, I am not saying that AGW is incapable of making these extreme events even worse.

For instance, California has experienced megadroughts lasting decades or hundreds of years in the relatively recent past.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#296

Post by dev1ycan »

Lima, Peru... daytime and night time temps are +8-+3 (single day, might be the coldest of the year) degrees celcius, usually should be like 18-16 celcius daytime, it's at 26-21 (single day, might be the coldest of the year) with +6-+8 being the most common... already past mid winter and there hasn't been a single "cold" day yet.

Pelicans are mass starving so are sea lions as cold based fish have left the shores, no long sleeves or sheets needed to sleep, it's been summer prety much all year... never seen this in 31 years of life... supposedly 98 was bad although this one is projected to be worse... summer temps might hit 39-34 celcius on average if things keep going this way when normally you have 31-27 degrees during summer, considering most houses don't have air conditioning I can definitely see a lot of heat related deaths happening and a potential food crisis forming.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#297

Post by WheatMillington »

lukeify wrote: post #12
Noaidi wrote: post #6

People really don’t appreciate yet. How really bad this situation is and will be. They’re talking about 1.76°C higher temperatures next year because of this El Niño. Those are climate change temperatures that are not supposed to be around until 2035. So it’ll give us a sneak peek into our future. But the biggest effect and this is noted by many insurance companies now is going to be in places like India. But this is…

It was inevitable we'd get to the point where climate change began substantially disrupting ecology and human livelihoods. Looks like we're ahead of schedule. People dying from extreme heatwaves, weather, and famines due to climate change has been predicted for decades at this point; and this is exactly the sort of climatic setup that will enable this to happen.

Way more people die of being exposed to the cold than exposed to the heat. So you could make a good argument that weather events save more lives than they cost by increasing the temperature of marginal zones where people otherwise freeze.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#298

Post by zahlman »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #162
zahlman wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Per capita CO2 emissions in the US are down about 36% from their 1973 peak ( https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions ).

So? It’s still multiples more than other places.

So, what exactly does "getting one's shit together" mean, if not a reduction in per-capita usage over time?

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#299

Post by zahlman »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #181
nozzlegear wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So it's a good thing ya doink

In response to fHr's comment of >If only China and US could get their shit together.... If people in the US are still consuming multiples more than people in other societies, then a decrease of 36% means the US still does not have their shit together. Presumably, zahlman's response of pointing out the 36% decrease was a refutation of fHr's claim for China and US to get their shit together. Although, also funny is tha…

> decline is partly (significantly?) due to exporting CO2 emissions from manufacturing to China

They didn't have to agree to it, you know. But you can look at consumption-based carbon accounting and still get a picture that the US is, indeed, getting its shit together.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#300

Post by ksec »

izend wrote: post #18

The strongest El Niño ever caused a massive famine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1877%E2%80%931878_El_Ni%C3%B1o...

That is the question I am trying to get from the article. Will this new "keep growing" strongest ever be as bad as the one in 1877.

But it keep explaining what El Niño and Super El Niño and how it develops without giving me any context of how strong it will be.

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