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Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

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Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#131

Post by defrost »

pelasaco wrote: post #123
defrost wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody in planet modelling has ever suggested that the 3 phase El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exists because of fossil fuel usage. An extreme swing, here and there, has always been part of its nature. The observed change is more and more extreme swings, greater amplitude, higher frequency.

in one hand i wanted to highlight that if it was today, we - as civilization - would definitely create a link between the events, based on our "feeling" in another hand, i question if we really could rule out, since back in the days, everything that we have was coal.

If you care to get analytic, it's related to the insulation factor of the atmosphere, fairly consistent amounts of sunlight in (subject to know solar variation and orbit) that heats land and sea surface radiating thermal energy out to space with a "small" amount trapped to maintain a globally mean amount of energy that powers climate cells and cascades into other forms.

The global amount of coal use in the 1880s was non zero, sure, but overall the CO2 emissions from those tonnages were minuscule compared to modern emissions within the past 50 years .. and we have direct libraries of atmosphere created since the early years of the Cold War and many pocket captures for the past 200 years, with proxies (such as ice core bubbles) going back far longer.

ENSO predates heavy coal use - so it's not something created by human activity, and as noted the first uses of coal were barely enough to move the needle (recall that collieries kept records so we have a fair handle on tonnages extracted).

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#132

Post by cumshitpiss »

dgellow wrote: post #126
bamboozled wrote: post #10

All we needed to do was stop burning fossil fuels we really are fucking dense.

I’m a capitalist, but the only conclusion I can arrive at is that neo liberal capitalism makes it impossible to « do the right thing ». What we have is the logical result of the incentives at play

[dead]

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#133

Post by vrganj »

roenxi wrote: post #118
VorpalWay wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is another option than individuals vs corporations though: The government could and should provide for it's citizens. That is what a welfare state is all about: useing the taxes it collects from its citizens for the common good. I know, to the US centric crowd at HN that probably sounds insane, but as a Scandinavian this is what I would have expected in the past (though probably not these days).

I mean sure but if we're just going to give people the money to buy food what is the complaint about big corporations charging more? It isn't like anyone would be unable to afford food, because a welfare state would imply a standing agreement to buy everyone food at the taxpayer's expense if required. And it is entirely reasonable for prices to go up when there is a shortage, the people who built up stockpiles in adv…

> the people who built up stockpiles in advance need to be compensated for their foresight

Why? And it's not foresight that sets those people apart, it's having the resources to hoard the food and the ethical framework that allows them to profiteer off their fellow humans misfortune. Why should we reward that?

> Someone has to be stockpiling food.

Sure, like a government or a coop or a commune or whatever. Some institution who's interests are aligned with the community, not somebody who happens to have capital and wants to make a buck.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#134

Post by mitjam »

xrd wrote: post #30

I really tried to get through this. But sentences like this were confusing to me: In simple terms, the ocean surface anomalies are just the surface footprint of this massive subsurface warm core.

I stumbled across this too but going back to the picture made the sentence easy to understand. Maybe the sentence would have worked better if it was located before the picture. (The picture shows a ramp going up to the right deep under the ocean surface - the subsurface warm core)

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#135

Post by vrganj »

dgellow wrote: post #126
bamboozled wrote: post #10

All we needed to do was stop burning fossil fuels we really are fucking dense.

I’m a capitalist, but the only conclusion I can arrive at is that neo liberal capitalism makes it impossible to « do the right thing ». What we have is the logical result of the incentives at play

I have come to the same conclusion, but let me ask you, how can you still be a capitalist having had that insight?

Why would you support a system that you recognize makes it impossible to do the right thing even as we're dying from its consequences?

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#136

Post by epolanski »

deepsun wrote: post #130
ben_w wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many farmers are subsidised specifically so that food is over-produced in most years, specifically to ensure than in bad years people don't go hungry. Corporations may indeed be taking advantage of this, demanding prices so low that the farmers don't get the benefit of those subsidies. However: > buy the stuff and sell it at a premium later Is the point of a futures market. Futures let people trade a thing before the…

Another reason why most countries subsidise their agriculture is because in times of war you don't want your enemy to starve you. That's mostly about high calories foods, not fancy salads though.

It would be just easier to not wage war by the way.

Can't think of many countries besides Canada and US that would not starve in NATO if such a necessity arose, and that's because they produce lots of cereals.

All the other countries in NATO are major food importers.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#138

Post by vixen99 »

bamboozled wrote: post #10

All we needed to do was stop burning fossil fuels we really are fucking dense.

Not true. El Nino (increases CO2) and Albedo (long term - it's decreasing) are problematic issues in this area. If it's settled science why bother to even consider other factors? Doubtful if humanity would survive the catastrophe resulting from a global interdiction of the kind you suggest and we're not dense for understanding that. Greening of the planet (plants need carbon to grow) which has contributed $trillions to world productivity would also taper off. Moreover the related sulfate emissions actually mask warming - reductions in these emissions is related to some of the recent temperature increases. So you could likely get a temporary spike in warming. All that said, there are sensible routes to reducing human influence on the planet.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#139

Post by epolanski »

bamboozled wrote: post #10

All we needed to do was stop burning fossil fuels we really are fucking dense.

There's way more to climate change than fossil fuels: consuming less and changing diet.

A single cow alone requires lots of crop, water, and produces tons of methane (which is 200 times more dangerous than carbon dioxide).

Fishing is another earth destroying endeavor. A single boat, a single one, practicing bottom trawling is more dangerous to the environment than the emissions of tens of thousands of cars. In a single day it can have the same impact of deforestation on an area big as a montain.

Seriously, stop believing the fossil fuels gaslighting. They are indeed a problem, but the cause for climate change is all of our toxic habits and our incapacity to say "enough", take the bus or eath healthier (for us and the planet).

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#140

Post by well_ackshually »

roenxi wrote: post #118
VorpalWay wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is another option than individuals vs corporations though: The government could and should provide for it's citizens. That is what a welfare state is all about: useing the taxes it collects from its citizens for the common good. I know, to the US centric crowd at HN that probably sounds insane, but as a Scandinavian this is what I would have expected in the past (though probably not these days).

I mean sure but if we're just going to give people the money to buy food what is the complaint about big corporations charging more? It isn't like anyone would be unable to afford food, because a welfare state would imply a standing agreement to buy everyone food at the taxpayer's expense if required. And it is entirely reasonable for prices to go up when there is a shortage, the people who built up stockpiles in adv…

>the people who built up stockpiles in advance need to be compensated for their foresight.

Or we do what we've always done to war profiteers and hang them after taking their supplies, because hoarding food and expecting to be paid for it while people are dying is immoral and tends to get people a little bit pissed.

There's no fucking bet to be made that people will need to eat tomorrow, or have a house, or have water. Those are basic needs.

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