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The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

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Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

#21

Post by zmgsabst »

khriss wrote: post #17

Aaaaaand right on cue the flagging brigade promptly flagged this to get it off the front page. What's stunning is that there doesn't seem to be a single way in which the United States has come out ahead on this conflict. We have * Established that US zero ability or will to protect it's 'allies' in region beyond Israel. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthen…

I agree with you right until the end:

This is closer to the end of the Roman Republic — and strange events such as threats against Greenland and Canada can be interpreted in that context as well.

That is, we’re not seeing the downfall of the US empire but the downfall of the US republic that will eventually retreat to North America and retrench its position — hence moving Canada and Greenland (and Cuba and…) from informal relations with a hegemon to formal vassals of an empire. And emerge as an actual empire, much like Rome before.

While I understand the emotional temptation, using the word “empire” in place of “hegemony” can lead to inaccurate predictions — eg, total US collapse versus pullback for retrenchment and reformation.

Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

#22

Post by cindyllm »

bell-cot wrote: post #15
ExoticPearTree wrote: post #9

Crazy idea: what if the US starts minding its own business and stops bombing countries just because it can?

How many hours do you think our current President could stick to that strategy, if it didn't instantly - Poof! Magic! - make everything better?

[dead]

Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

#23

Post by nevi-me »

khriss wrote: post #17

Aaaaaand right on cue the flagging brigade promptly flagged this to get it off the front page. What's stunning is that there doesn't seem to be a single way in which the United States has come out ahead on this conflict. We have * Established that US zero ability or will to protect it's 'allies' in region beyond Israel. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthen…

Well, people don't want to talk politics, but will gladly engage in climate conversations and other random things that are affected by politics, because the one thing where people are chosen to lead on popularity than merit is not interesting while it affects us and is currently causing more deaths than anything else (DOGE defunding, 'eradicated' viruses returning, unauthorised wars).

The front page only has so much space anyways, and they can't flag everything forever.

Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

#24

Post by nevi-me »

ggm wrote: post #4

I'm down for a good political rant as much as the next guy but I can't make an HN moment in this. Is it about department of war using AI instead of people to decide things? Or Amazon's material losses in DC assets?

Could you make an HN moment out of the climate, belly fat discussions? You could have at least read the article instead of asking about things not mentioned.

Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

#26

Post by ljf »

zmgsabst wrote: post #21
khriss wrote: post #17

Aaaaaand right on cue the flagging brigade promptly flagged this to get it off the front page. What's stunning is that there doesn't seem to be a single way in which the United States has come out ahead on this conflict. We have * Established that US zero ability or will to protect it's 'allies' in region beyond Israel. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthen…

I agree with you right until the end: This is closer to the end of the Roman Republic — and strange events such as threats against Greenland and Canada can be interpreted in that context as well. That is, we’re not seeing the downfall of the US empire but the downfall of the US republic that will eventually retreat to North America and retrench its position — hence moving Canada and Greenland (and Cuba and…) from inf…

To add to this, in the same way that Rome and the Roman Empire in some ways lived on through the Catholic Church, I think the 'church of capitalism' will mean that the American empire lives in far far into the future, and retains some of its power.

Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

#27

Post by bell-cot »

green_wheel wrote: post #7

It's hard to overstate how poorly this whole thing was thought out and executed. They obviously had no plan for what we'd do when Iran seized the strait. This is going to go down as the definitive beginning of the decline leading to the eventual end of US global hegemony. To think anyone ever mentioned defending Taiwan from China lol

Your phrasing implies that someone with real authority tried to think it out, and had realistic plans.

Vs. I see an angry, frustrated C-in-C, who has maybe a 1-move look ahead, playing out his emotions. Hopefully he is too weak to flip the chess board.

Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

#28

Post by watwut »

nevi-me wrote: post #23
khriss wrote: post #17

Aaaaaand right on cue the flagging brigade promptly flagged this to get it off the front page. What's stunning is that there doesn't seem to be a single way in which the United States has come out ahead on this conflict. We have * Established that US zero ability or will to protect it's 'allies' in region beyond Israel. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthen…

Well, people don't want to talk politics, but will gladly engage in climate conversations and other random things that are affected by politics, because the one thing where people are chosen to lead on popularity than merit is not interesting while it affects us and is currently causing more deaths than anything else (DOGE defunding, 'eradicated' viruses returning, unauthorised wars). The front page only has so much…

People talk politics and want to talk politics here. But, there are groups of people who flag politically uncomfortable stories.

And it is systematic. I yes, I read new so I dont buy the neutrality or randomnness of put of topic claims.

Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

#29

Post by matusp »

zmgsabst wrote: post #21
khriss wrote: post #17

Aaaaaand right on cue the flagging brigade promptly flagged this to get it off the front page. What's stunning is that there doesn't seem to be a single way in which the United States has come out ahead on this conflict. We have * Established that US zero ability or will to protect it's 'allies' in region beyond Israel. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthen…

I agree with you right until the end: This is closer to the end of the Roman Republic — and strange events such as threats against Greenland and Canada can be interpreted in that context as well. That is, we’re not seeing the downfall of the US empire but the downfall of the US republic that will eventually retreat to North America and retrench its position — hence moving Canada and Greenland (and Cuba and…) from inf…

The transformation from Roman republic to Roman empire was mainly about how the top-level government is organized. It was not about the relations with vassals/periphery. The Roman republic was as imperialistic as empire in this regard. In fact, most of the Roman conquering was already done when the republic ended.

Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US

#30

Post by bell-cot »

bpodgursky wrote: post #12
green_wheel wrote: post #7

It's hard to overstate how poorly this whole thing was thought out and executed. They obviously had no plan for what we'd do when Iran seized the strait. This is going to go down as the definitive beginning of the decline leading to the eventual end of US global hegemony. To think anyone ever mentioned defending Taiwan from China lol

Well, Iran is a huge mess, but in terms of strategic lessons, it actually tips the balance closer to "Taiwan, with US help and proper preparation, can deny China control of the strait of Taiwan" (and vice versa, of course). It's clear that asymmetric warfare is good now at denying access to ocean and turning it into no-man's-zone. In a lot of ways, helping defending Taiwan (a very well-scoped objective, "do not let C…

> actually tips the balance closer to "Taiwan, with US help and proper preparation, can deny China control of the strait of Taiwan"

Sadly not true. So long as the US is unwilling to launch a large-scale invasion and occupation of Iran, Iran can make the strait riskier than commercial shipping traffic is comfortable with. Vs. occupation of Taiwan seems to be the CCP's goal.

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