The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US
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Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US
#2[dead]
Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US
#3Professor Robert Pape (University of Chicago) has 2 substacks where he have been discussing the exactly topic heavily, as well as having webinar/ live discussions with some heavy hitters about the topic. Unfortunately both of the substacks are both subscription-only
https://professorrobertpape.substack.com/
https://escalationtrap.substack.com
I would rather not paraphrasing or rewrite in my interpretation too much, as the topic is difficult enough as-is. But the short version is that the mainstream analysis of "worst case" is nowhere near his level of worst-case scenario and that the US has no control of the situations any more (the US can still control its actions, but Iran is already emboldened enough to take actions on its own strategic plan). The worst-case scenario has Iran with nuke as the baseline, and Iran also growing to be the dominant regional power in Middle East, on-par with Russian in the peak strength in 2010s.
Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US
#4I'm down for a good political rant as much as the next guy but I can't make an HN moment in this.
Is it about department of war using AI instead of people to decide things? Or Amazon's material losses in DC assets?
Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US
#5> No one seems to have a solid strategy to win the war in Iran.
> “What do you mean by ‘win’?”
I doubt that the US regime leader and its military leaders know what a win looks like. Given that Trump and the regime have launched terror on countries to distract from their own accountability and to keep corruption at highs; a cynnical non-US reader/observer could say that they're "winning" at manipulating markets and lining their pockets through military corruption. Not mentioning local terrorism via ICE, the weaponising of the justice system, and corrupt lawsuits to shake down opponents and acquisition targets.
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I deliberately used "US regime" because why must Iran be labelled a regime when the US isn't?
The days of the US being a powerhouse will end, and we will remember it. Even their media are losing credibility.
Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US
#6> “I don’t believe that if you break it you necessarily own it,” one such hawk, a former U.S. official, told me when I asked if the U.S. would be responsible for fixing a failed Iran
Yes, we noted that republicans and especially conservatives dont believe that in general. Applies to billionaires too.
> The U.S. should preserve the naval blockade while preparing to stand with Iranians when they again demand a future free from repression.”
If only US stood for liberarion. We and also Iranians know all too well US is trying to destroy democracies and install puppet dictators.
Is Venezuela democratic now? US literally threatened civilization destruction, it literally talked about keeping Iranian regime and just changing head for someone making oil deals. What a liberation.
Even liberal Iranians are now thankful IRCG defended them against external aggressor. That was what journalists who had contacts in Iran said. Congrats.
Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US
#7It's hard to overstate how poorly this whole thing was thought out and executed. They obviously had no plan for what we'd do when Iran seized the strait. This is going to go down as the definitive beginning of the decline leading to the eventual end of US global hegemony. To think anyone ever mentioned defending Taiwan from China lol
Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US
#8I'm down for a good political rant as much as the next guy but I can't make an HN moment in this. Is it about department of war using AI instead of people to decide things? Or Amazon's material losses in DC assets?
One can post practically anything to HN it doesnt have to be just purely about technology.
Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US
#9Crazy idea: what if the US starts minding its own business and stops bombing countries just because it can?
Re: The Iran War Is a Whole New Level of Quagmire for the US
#10It's hard to overstate how poorly this whole thing was thought out and executed. They obviously had no plan for what we'd do when Iran seized the strait. This is going to go down as the definitive beginning of the decline leading to the eventual end of US global hegemony. To think anyone ever mentioned defending Taiwan from China lol
> To think anyone ever mentioned defending Taiwan from China lol
There are still countries willing to defend democracy out there - Ukraine/Europe/Canada/Japan/S-Korea/Australia.
Just not USA.