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Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

severe-weather.eu

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Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#81

Post by lukeify »

timr wrote: post #72
defrost wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your linked figure confirms that 2018 was cooler than things are today. The chapter 11 temperature over view is concerning for the consequences: The frequency and intensity of hot extremes will continue to increase and those of cold extremes will continue to decrease, at global and continental scales and in nearly all inhabited regions with increasing global warming levels. This will be the case even if global warmin…

> Your linked figure confirms that 2018 was cooler than things are today. So? what does that have to do with the question at hand? An 8 year change is irrelevant in the world of climate science. It's statistical noise in a system where cycles run for decades. Weather, not climate. > The chapter 11 temperature over view is concerning for the consequences: ...and then you quote the part that says exactly what I explain…

As the original poster you replied to, why do you think it's exaggeration to predict that people will die from increasingly strong heatwaves? This is already happening [0]. And: "For 2022, it was estimated that between 60,000 and 70,000 people in Europe died from heat (Ballester et al., 2023; Ballester et al., 2024)"

It's extremely hypocritical of you to accuse me of exaggerating when your own presentation of facts is selective and not-representative of what we are seeing globally. An El Niño will only exacerbate heatwaves in some parts of the planet over the next 24 months.

[0]: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/ukhsa-report-shows-2877-e...

[1]: https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/observatory/topics/he...

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#82

Post by sans_souse »

xrd wrote: post #30

I really tried to get through this. But sentences like this were confusing to me: In simple terms, the ocean surface anomalies are just the surface footprint of this massive subsurface warm core.

Yea, I will admit my imagination started to go off as I read that

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#83

Post by danw1979 »

throwaway473825 wrote: post #57
anon7000 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look, I think you made some good points, but at the same time, humans have become better at handling the climate because we’ve been able to predict it and have found solutions to certain known issues. What happens when it gets less predictable, like when certain regions get much less water for an extended period, is very much unknown. Your last claim makes no sense. Is there actually a widespread political effort to…

Regarding air conditioning in Europe, I suspect that there are other interests at play given that there has been zero pushback against air conditioning in cars. Air conditioning in buildings is likely viewed as a threat to gas providers as most modern cooling devices also have a heating mode that competes directly with gas heating.

At least here in the UK, recent revisions to the default planning rules around heat pumps (“Permitted Development” legislation) removed the restriction that an install be “used solely for heating purposes” and revised this to “not be used solely for the purpose of cooling”.

The Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant also permits cooling - it’s based on the heating credentials of a unit only.

So in Britain at least, installing cooling systems in private residences seems to be getting easier.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#84

Post by AnIrishDuck »

xrd wrote: post #30

I really tried to get through this. But sentences like this were confusing to me: In simple terms, the ocean surface anomalies are just the surface footprint of this massive subsurface warm core.

Area vs volume.

If these are the temperatures on the surface, think of the depths. There is a whole additional dimension to multiply (integrate) across.

The added energy is far greater than you might think simply by looking at the surface.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#85

Post by timr »

lukeify wrote: post #81
timr wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your linked figure confirms that 2018 was cooler than things are today. So? what does that have to do with the question at hand? An 8 year change is irrelevant in the world of climate science. It's statistical noise in a system where cycles run for decades. Weather, not climate. > The chapter 11 temperature over view is concerning for the consequences: ...and then you quote the part that says exactly what I explain…

As the original poster you replied to, why do you think it's exaggeration to predict that people will die from increasingly strong heatwaves? This is already happening [0]. And: "For 2022, it was estimated that between 60,000 and 70,000 people in Europe died from heat (Ballester et al., 2023; Ballester et al., 2024)" It's extremely hypocritical of you to accuse me of exaggerating when your own presentation of facts i…

You need to bring evidence, not press releases.

Your first link says that more people died this year, relative to predictions for this year, because of a single heat wave. This has ~nothing to do with the discussion at hand, and is a classic example of the sort of hyperbole I am talking about.

The second link says that heat events kill people in the UK. Fine. It links to a single paper claiming that:

> half of the heat-related deaths in Europe in the summer of 2022 have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change (Beck et al., 2024).

Regardless of the quality of the cited paper, this is a far cry from evidence of a trend.

> It's extremely hypocritical of you to accuse me of exaggerating when your own presentation of facts is selective and not-representative of what we are seeing globally.

You're literally exaggerating, right now. I quoted the latest IPCC report and told you factually what it says. You linked to a press release and a UK climate portal page that don't support what you're insuinating.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#86

Post by chrischen »

dluan wrote: post #68
fHr wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If only China and US could get their shit together....

China is the only country that is seriously doing anything about anything. They've single handedly built more renewable energy capacity than every other country combined, they've pulled millions of diesel and gasoline cars off roads, reforested one of the world's biggest deserts, this year they've finally reduced coal usage, and next year the long awaited Tokamak is set to fire for the first time. The US is busy send…

To be fair, closing the straight of hormuz has probably put a dent in carbon emissions.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#87

Post by lukeify »

timr wrote: post #85
lukeify wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As the original poster you replied to, why do you think it's exaggeration to predict that people will die from increasingly strong heatwaves? This is already happening [0]. And: "For 2022, it was estimated that between 60,000 and 70,000 people in Europe died from heat (Ballester et al., 2023; Ballester et al., 2024)" It's extremely hypocritical of you to accuse me of exaggerating when your own presentation of facts i…

You need to bring evidence, not press releases. Your first link says that more people died this year , relative to predictions for this year , because of a single heat wave. This has ~nothing to do with the discussion at hand, and is a classic example of the sort of hyperbole I am talking about. The second link says that heat events kill people in the UK. Fine. It links to a single paper claiming that: > half of the…

> This has nothing to do with the discussion at hand

This is a topic concerning El Niño. You acknowledge that the downstream consequences of El Niño effects is amplified heatwaves, presumably. Heatwaves already kill people in many continents globally. It stands to reason _strong_ heatwaves will probably raise mortality further; which is _directly related_ to my original comment.

I don't engage with people who aren't willing to be honest with what the data supports.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#88

Post by timr »

lukeify wrote: post #87
timr wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need to bring evidence, not press releases. Your first link says that more people died this year , relative to predictions for this year , because of a single heat wave. This has ~nothing to do with the discussion at hand, and is a classic example of the sort of hyperbole I am talking about. The second link says that heat events kill people in the UK. Fine. It links to a single paper claiming that: > half of the…

> This has nothing to do with the discussion at hand This is a topic concerning El Niño. You acknowledge that the downstream consequences of El Niño effects is amplified heatwaves, presumably. Heatwaves already kill people in many continents globally. It stands to reason _strong_ heatwaves will probably raise mortality further; which is _directly related_ to my original comment. I don't engage with people who aren't…

> I don't engage with people who aren't willing to be honest with what the data supports.

OK, whatever. But what was I dishonest about? Cite the figures. Should be pretty easy.

...oh, and by the way:

> You acknowledge that the downstream consequences of El Niño effects is amplified heatwaves, presumably.

In some places, sure. In others (i.e. the western pacific), it leads to regional cooling.

Let's at least get our facts straight.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#89

Post by jauntywundrkind »

jauntywundrkind wrote: post #16

Meanwhile West Antarctic ice shelf barely clutching on. No direct link, but click the "anomaly" map button just underneath the map. Hello all these similar 10+ °C anomalies that have sat around. Some colder spots too that have hung around! But yikes. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world

Sorry, just below the graph, just above the map.

I at least think of El Nino kind of running into South, building up in the Pacific. But the heat cuts across, then down, and pools in Antarctica here, is how I read it.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#90

Post by otterley »

pasquinelli wrote: post #71
simulator5g wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah yes it could have been so easy: All we needed to do was convince everyone in the world to behave a certain way.

individual people don't matter, they're peanuts. otoh the single biggest consumer of fossil fuels is the US DOD. and why is that, really?

Is this actually true? That sounds suspicious. I’d love to see that data.
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