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Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

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Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't know the meaning of the words. Ask the Philippines how unpredictable China is in the South China sea.

You don't know who is the President of the USA.

And how is that relevant? You have a bad habit of routinely making extremist statements without backing them up. It is not the first time I have seen you do it.

The US is not an authoritarian regime. To call it infinitely worse than China in this regard is false, and is a laughable claim. The President will be out in a few years.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#282

The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.

It’s very unlikely that the USD will lose its status particularly to the Yuan. You can do that mental calculation yourself. Would you convert all of your lifesavings from USD to Yuans today or in the next 10 years? The answer is probably “not a chance”. The reason is simple, liquidity and trust. China has no comparable open and independent financial institutions international central banks can trust, nor can they have them without surrendering control over their monetary policy. So as long as there’s no alternative to the USD (BRICS will likely fail), it will continue being the default global currency for reserves, debt and trade.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#283
post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In some countries it's well over 50%. China of course being one of them As always with these stats, I like to check whether that includes plug in hybrids, and it does. Those are still mostly dependent on fossil fuels, although they use less. Pure BEV adoption seems to depend on your radius from Norway: https://www.autonergy.co/blog/global-ev-adoption-leaderboard... (France should really be doing better, after all m…

Thats personal vehicles. But if China is going full speed with electric trucks, that will be the fastest gamechanger. Diesel trucks run 300K miles, under 5mpg, consume a gazillion gallons. Electric truck fuel costs are probably 10%. Its really sad that India is pro fossil fuel, it has an opportunity to follow China's strategy.

You will find Chinese electric trucks making inroads (heh) everywhere from UK and Europe (1) to Africa (2)

now that it's a proven business model in the centre of the these things, of course.

1) https://octopus.energy/big-on-batteries-octopus-and-catl-tea...

2) https://mybroadband.co.za/news/motoring/648661-electric-truc...

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#284

I wonder if it has anything to do with the currency apparently being backed by an immense reserve of oil (proven to the world by this year's geopolitical events), then coal, and then a massive amount of renewable solar, hydro, wind kWh's and infrastructure to deliver it to homes and shops. More and more it feels like a nation's kWh throughput is the new metric to track its global influence in manufacturing, industry,…

I've always sort-of-joked[1] about a "Blood Standard": your status as reserve currency is proportional to the percentage of the world population your nation can murder in 12 months.

Puts a hard floor on nations with strategic nuclear deterrents - they can never fall below a fairly high threshold, no matter how much of a "Security State Zombie" their national economies have become.

[1] I'm not 100% sure it's all me joking anymore.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#285

Ah, yes, the best way to react to increased authoritarianism in the US is to checks notes begin doing more business with a country that is the final word in authoritarianism.

Grow up man, we need people to grow up and see the world for what it really is before we can fix it

You go against the government (for real) in ANY country you get a bullet, simple as that...

That is everywhere...

In USA, China, Russia, Paraguay, Laos, or wherever you go look...

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#286
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

their yough unemployment rate sure is rising, it sure ain't great to be young Chinese looking for job now https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/15/business/china-youth-unem... https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d01203/ https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1pedov5/oc... also there are salary paycuts for people who already have work, my Chinese clients tried this, but not gonna accept it, I will rather lose such…

Yeah, but have you seen their EVs that cost $30,000 and have fold out kitchens and a movie theater in the rear?

I'm not sure that's relevant if you aren't paid so might self to feed yourself.

Also 30k USD is a lot of money everywhere except for in the US

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#287

The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.

If you are trying to apply lessons from the gold standard era to lessons in the current era of non-convertible fiat currencies, then you are going to draw the exact opposite of the correct conclusions. There is a fundamental difference in how global capital flows work when the world uses specie flows versus when the world does not.

Here is one hint. The reason why currencies like the Spanish dollar or Dutch guilder became standards were primarily questions of prestige and minting quality as you held those currencies in your own possession. But everyone could recognize a guilder and so when dealing with a foreigner, it was easier to have them.

In that type of environment, being a global export power meant that you were a global gold issuer because you sold your goods to the rest of the world, got their gold (or silver), melted it down, and issued your own stamped gold or silver coins, that circulated all over the world.

If that is your mental model of foreign trade today, then please read a bit further in your history books, because we live in the world of non-convertible fiat money. This means that when China sells $100 of stuff to America, it doesn't get to take that money home, the money is kept in an American bank account, with the name of that chinese seller as the beneficiary of the account. It's a non-convertible currency. A dollar is always a dollar, China can't melt it down and convert it to a Yuan.

So now, to be the reserve currency doesn't mean that your specialized minting tech is being stored in central banks all over the world, it means that central banks all over the world have deposit accounts in your banking system. And that can only happen by being the world's largest importer, the exact opposite of the situation in the age of the Dutch trading empire. Your entire analysis is backwards.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really, kindness also exists. It is the escape hatch from the evolutionary zero sum game and let's you pick a better equilibrium (bargaining vs pure Nash). We can just not fight. There is enough room and resources,we can get more of them and build more efficient tech, and we are all more alike than different.

Kindness is an unstable equilibrium unfortunately. Mother nature is totally uninterested in it. Otherwise we would still all be protolife quasi-cells, because consuming other cells and not sharing resources isn't kind. Maybe you argue that we are human and intelligent, so we can override this inconvenience with a system of our own design. My response would be "Sure, put your guns down and burn them, I won't stop you.…

Thats your take, I tend to not agree. Nature, with all its balance by destruction, has one approach but we humans can and do things differently in some cases, for our greater benefit.

We don't kill weak links in our population just like mother nature intended and keeps doing left and right everywhere all the time, a good chunk of this forum would not pass those harsh and often random tests yet its/ours added value is non-trivial and surpasses any additional effort by society (at least I like to think that).

'Everything good in this world is kindness'. I have yet to meet a person, situation or story where this would not apply.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric.…

EVs don’t need renewables. What makes them attractive despite the bad marketing in the West is that they can be powered by anything that can create electricity, like coal; which is something China has a lot of The transition to EVs is key to the national security of many countries that currently do not have energy security like China and even most if not all member countries in the EU.

China doesn't have a lot of coal, at least not relevant to their energy requirements. They still have to import a huge amount and remain vulnerable from an energy security perspective.

https://www.iea.org/countries/china/coal

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Losing the reserve currency doesn't happen in a vacuum. It happened to the British and Dutch because their empires were dismantled. So, yeah, it could happen to the US, slowly, over time (it already is). But nobody wakes up tomorrow and says they no longer want USD. Where are you parking the money, yuan?

It seems that people forecasting the collapse of the dollar are mostly doing it from a social perspective i.e. "America is collapsing under the weight of private healthcare, anti-immigration, tariffs, and the erosion of our allies; the dollar is done for" But the reality is that financial markets don't really have a soul, and just care about economics. By all accounts, the American economy is doing excellent right no…

Its international strength is collapsing due to weight of Iran war, being untrustworthy partner, rupture from allies who supported it before and China going up. That means countries doing different long term strategic decisions, because they have no other reasonable choice.

Overall and overtime, that will weaken demand for dollar and what kind of trades other countries are willing to enter.

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