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Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

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Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#261

Post by brazukadev »

decimalenough wrote: post #47
pizzathyme wrote: post #22

The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.

The yuan will never become a reserve currency as long as China maintain tight currency controls around importing and exporting it. It's very difficult to (legally) send CNY out or China. The euro is in a much better position to be adopted as an alternative, but its share of global reserves has been flat at around 20% for years. https://data.imf.org/en/news/imf%20data%20brief%20march%2027

The yuan doesn't need to become a reserve currency for it to impact the US dollar. 15%+ of global trade is Chinese import/export. China is the biggest buyer and seller to most countries.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#262

Post by WarmWash »

igorkraw wrote: post #257
WarmWash wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a fundamental attribute of reality. Take it up with mother nature, because power struggles exist everywhere, even in dumb systems with no intelligence. Weak things go away, strong things stay around. Weak things need to become stronger than strong things to displace them.

Not really, kindness also exists. It is the escape hatch from the evolutionary zero sum game and let's you pick a better equilibrium (bargaining vs pure Nash). We can just not fight. There is enough room and resources,we can get more of them and build more efficient tech, and we are all more alike than different.

Kindness is an unstable equilibrium unfortunately. Mother nature is totally uninterested in it. Otherwise we would still all be protolife quasi-cells, because consuming other cells and not sharing resources isn't kind.

Maybe you argue that we are human and intelligent, so we can override this inconvenience with a system of our own design. My response would be "Sure, put your guns down and burn them, I won't stop you."

Again, it's an unstable equilibrium. Power on the other hand is dramatically more stable.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#263

Post by rsanek »

thelastgallon wrote: post #93
jillesvangurp wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric.…

Demand destruction will collapse profits and accelerate the oil/dollar downfall. Saudi Arabia can profitably pump oil probably under $10/barrel. If demand drops, thats where oil should be. China with [EVs|Solar|BESS|Turbines] will replace all of the fossil fuel countries (US, middle-east, Russia). This is probably the biggest transition in the history of mankind. This is energy production, storage and all the applian…

China is much more of a "fossil fuel country" than the US. They've got a ways to go to even catch up.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/energy-mix?tab=stacked-di...

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#264

Post by Al-Khwarizmi »

DrBazza wrote: post #230
jillesvangurp wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric.…

I did a lazy ask google, and it thinks less than 3% of crude oil is used for energy. The vast bulk of oil being used: 'transportation (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel), heavy machinery, and non-energy uses like asphalt and plastics rather than power plants'. That is of course, one of the big problems of 'going green' - electricity production is low hanging fruit and understood by the general public. When that's 'solved' (…

Around 50% is used for road transport, though, which is poised to be replaced and was one of the parent poster's main points.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#265

Post by kasey_junk »

swat535 wrote: post #242
intrasight wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither the word "free" nor "float" is present in that article - so I'd say no the article does not discuss that.

China's goal is weakening the dollar, I don't think they are after reserved currency status. In any case, moving from USD -> Yuan would pose the same risk as people may perceive with USD today. Having a single currency controlled by one nation is too risky.

China doesn’t broadly want a weaker dollar, at least not against the yuan. Until very recently they actively worked to strengthen the dollar in the pair.

Chinese currency policy is broadly about controlling their domestic population not about foreign policy. Between keeping their domestic manufacturing industry going and keeping their more affluent populations power in check you’ll find most of the motivation for what they do on currency policy.

This move gives one less reason to allow a currency transaction and thus one less way for domestic manufacturers (and importantly their management) to get around those capital controls.

As European Chinese business increased that became more important and Duetche is dominant in fx, being able to handle effectively everything now means European businesses won’t complain either.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#266

Post by codedokode »

soco wrote: post #215
codedokode wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you used cash as a reasonable person you would not even notice that cards aren't working.

How many shops will be open without power? No till, no light, no refrigerator... not sure how much will help you having cash, beyond a couple of very basic needs - I can't even tell which, nor can you, it's gonna be an adventure either way.

Bread doesn't need a refrigerator and you can sell it directly from a truck.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#267

Post by yorwba »

rzerowan wrote: post #238
samrus wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China with [EVs|Solar|BESS|Turbines] will replace all of the fossil fuel countries (US, middle-east, Russia) I dont agree with china having the same position as the FF exporters. Simply because with renewables, you export the means to produce energy rather than the energy itself. So in terms of monetary value, china will be selling alot less panels than the FF countries sell oil. And other countries can also manufa…

ACtually no , even with the export of primary goods that go into the manufactue of renewables like solar the price differential still favours China. A recent example is the boom of local solar manufacture in India whil relies on solar modules imported from china.The assembled panes are still 2X the price of a similar fullly aseembled one from China. And not due too subsidies of labour - a lot of the value chain is hi…

China indeed makes very cheap solar panels, inverters and batteries, but that just means that they take up a smaller share of the cost of a complete installation, which also includes labor and additional hardware for the mounting system. So solar panels doubling in price won't double the cost of new solar capacity, let alone the cost of electricity from existing installations. That reduces the political leverage a lot compared to oil, where a supply disruption affects prices on fairly short time scales.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#268

Post by xingped »

avisser wrote: post #235
xingped wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a little confusing, but technically RMB (renminbi) is the official name of the currency and CNY (yuan) is the base unit of the currency. Think of it like the difference between USD ("US Dollar") vs "dollar and cents", except there is no fractional yuan equivalent of cents, so it's all just yuan.

So the conversation might go, "Hi we're Deutsche Bank - we're able to clear renminbi transactions up to one million yuan." ?

That would most likely be the most correct way to say it, yes.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#269

Post by Al-Khwarizmi »

mirmor23 wrote: post #178
mschuster91 wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And your gasoline pump works perfectly fine without power? Most decent emergency / contingency plans will have the fire department, police or whatever local group show up at one or two designated gas stations to provide power, or require these stations to have on-site emergency power.

> Most decent emergency / contingency plans will have the fire department, police or whatever local group show up at one or two designated gas stations to provide power, or require these stations to have on-site emergency power. this is just nonsense. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iberian_Peninsula_blackou... while traveling i got caught up in this. no restaurants, no credit cards working, no grocery stores, no…

As a local, it was actually rather fun. And my kid was amazed. For a traveler it must have sucked, though (and also for some people with special needs, and in places where it's actually common, etc.).

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#270

Post by aprentic »

andsoitis wrote: post #92
aprentic wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has some internal documents that address the Thucydides Trap with a Chinese idiom, "There are no just wars in the Spring and Autumn Period."

> China has some internal documents how did you get to see them? that must be a very interesting story.

It depends on what you find interesting. No crazy spy stories but I've been learning Chinese, so I've spent more time looking at things that are only written or said in Chinese.

Project 2025 wasn't really secret but it wasn't in the public consciousness until about a year later https://trends.google.com/explore?q=project%20202&date=today...

China also has a bunch of political philosophy nerds that crank out wonky policy papers. I keep finding references to this one by Wu Bikang, https://www.rmlt.com.cn/2014/0403/253621.shtml

I'm still very bad at Chinese and I don't assume that I understand that paper well, even with translations, but that paper clearly interprets the Thucydides trap very differently from how it's discussed here.

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