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Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

nytimes.com

21–30 of 83 posts

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#21

I think immigration is the best solution. There's no shortage of babies and young people in the world. The article notes that liberal immigration policies are not popular. Well, maybe that's the problem. I suspect that immigration will gain popularity when the problems caused by the ageing population become sufficiently severe. The problem will solve itself at the right time.

Immigration "would be" the best solution but we are talking about Japan in here. Not an "immigrant friendly" country like Canada, Australia or the US. Simply put... Japan is "allergic" to foreigners.

Surprisingly the process to get a work/student visa in Japan is much more easier than in Australia or the US (I've applied to one or another in all these countries and it's such a breeze to do in Japan).

Despite that, immigration remains low. For the foreigners here, last time I checked it was basically composed of about 80% of foreigners from China, 15% from Korea and the remaining 5% from the rest of the world.

I suppose the difficulty of the language and geographic location has something to do. Racism as known in the West is rare, but the truth is, Japan has consistently failed to assimilate any foreign population and it is really difficult to explain how it is like. I guess it's definitely more like a Canadian "cultural mosaic" more than an American "melting pot". But the cultural mosaic has some sense of equilibrium. For the case of Japan it would look more like "patching the kimono with pieces of fabrics of different patterns".

The thing is, under the hood, legally speaking, Japan is very open and welcoming to foreigners, but it fails to keep them in or assimilate them.

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#22
post #17

These demographic trends are, unfortunately, only temporary. From the point of view of evolution, birth control is a disaster. I have done exactly the activity evolution has programmed me to do to continue the species, regularly, for over 20 years. Only twice did it result in children, and both times were conscious choices on my part. However evolution knows how to face these disasters. There is a small minority of p…

You said it, brother (sister?). In each country there are subcultures (religious fundamentalists, usually) that have birth rates well above replacement. Secular culture has managed to peel away many of their kids in recent decades but, with the kind of uninspiring, plasticky productions currently streaming out of Hollywood / big label music, that process is about to change. Let's just say, your radio is likely to play a lot more Christian rock in your old age.

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#23
I believe the article is incorrect about one thing. Japan has a formal army. It's constitution forbids it from declaring war, but it still has quite a large military for self defense. Though, like about half the article, that is apropos of nothing.

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#24

I think immigration is the best solution. There's no shortage of babies and young people in the world. The article notes that liberal immigration policies are not popular. Well, maybe that's the problem. I suspect that immigration will gain popularity when the problems caused by the ageing population become sufficiently severe. The problem will solve itself at the right time.

Immigration "would be" the best solution but we are talking about Japan in here. Not an "immigrant friendly" country like Canada, Australia or the US. Simply put... Japan is "allergic" to foreigners. Surprisingly the process to get a work/student visa in Japan is much more easier than in Australia or the US (I've applied to one or another in all these countries and it's such a breeze to do in Japan). Despite that, im…

Hi, when you say "open", you mean also for workers? Do you have any potential advice for somebody looking for a job over there?

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#25
post #2

This is pretty awful analysis. It conflates aggregate statistics (e.g. GDP) with per-capita ones (birth rates, cost per child). And it's headline is a clear lie designed to draw clicks. Demographic change is a real challenge, and all industrial societies are heading for that kind of cliff. Japan's is larger than most (but smaller than China's), and they are going to get there first. But this isn't the kind of disaste…

Yes, there are some statistical flaws in the article, but the general point that Japan's population aging and that this is a problem is true. You say that things will return to a steady state, but why do you believe that?

[deleted]

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#26

I think immigration is the best solution. There's no shortage of babies and young people in the world. The article notes that liberal immigration policies are not popular. Well, maybe that's the problem. I suspect that immigration will gain popularity when the problems caused by the ageing population become sufficiently severe. The problem will solve itself at the right time.

The Japanese are quite xenophobic and consider immigration to be a last resort. For this reason, they have invested (and continue to invest) large sums of money into robotics research, in an attempt to replace their working population without allowing mass immigration.

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#28

This is the opposite of a problem. Wether intentionally or not, Japan is showing the world the only way the whole _world_ can survive: by having less babies. To expect growth at a time of such overpopulation is cruel and hurtful to the entire human population.

No, as others have pointed out in the thread, you need 2.1-2.3 to reach replacement of population. In general, the planet can "easily" support the number of people we have. While I don't think there would be serious harm in a happy, voluntary reduction in the overall population, this isn't a sustainable long term (100's of years) trend. While I would like to think we're going to return to replacement levels of child…

At the current birthrate/deathrate, Japan's population will be 60 million by 2100. That's the same population as in the 1920s. So the same population but with almost 180 years of technologic and productivity advances? I think most people would like that.

Tokyo literally employees people to shove commuters into rush-hour trains. Who wouldn't want to live in a Tokyo with the same infrastructure but with 40% fewer people using it? Sounds pretty good to me.

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#29
post #22
post #17

These demographic trends are, unfortunately, only temporary. From the point of view of evolution, birth control is a disaster. I have done exactly the activity evolution has programmed me to do to continue the species, regularly, for over 20 years. Only twice did it result in children, and both times were conscious choices on my part. However evolution knows how to face these disasters. There is a small minority of p…

You said it, brother (sister?). In each country there are subcultures (religious fundamentalists, usually) that have birth rates well above replacement. Secular culture has managed to peel away many of their kids in recent decades but, with the kind of uninspiring, plasticky productions currently streaming out of Hollywood / big label music, that process is about to change. Let's just say, your radio is likely to pla…

I'd say it's a lot more likely to be playing Mariachi than Christian rock...

Re: Without Babies, Can Japan Survive?

#30
post #29
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You said it, brother (sister?). In each country there are subcultures (religious fundamentalists, usually) that have birth rates well above replacement. Secular culture has managed to peel away many of their kids in recent decades but, with the kind of uninspiring, plasticky productions currently streaming out of Hollywood / big label music, that process is about to change. Let's just say, your radio is likely to pla…

I'd say it's a lot more likely to be playing Mariachi than Christian rock...

You forget that Hispanics are also quite religious.
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