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Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

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Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#91

The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.

Losing the reserve currency doesn't happen in a vacuum. It happened to the British and Dutch because their empires were dismantled. So, yeah, it could happen to the US, slowly, over time (it already is). But nobody wakes up tomorrow and says they no longer want USD. Where are you parking the money, yuan?

> nobody wakes up tomorrow and says they no longer want USD

Depends what happens tomorrow

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#92

It will be interesting to see how much of Thucydides Trap plays out in currency and trade as opposed to military conflict. I am hopeful that economic and financial warfare absorbs the brunt of the power struggle.

China has some internal documents that address the Thucydides Trap with a Chinese idiom, "There are no just wars in the Spring and Autumn Period."

> China has some internal documents

how did you get to see them? that must be a very interesting story.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#93

The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.

One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric.…

Demand destruction will collapse profits and accelerate the oil/dollar downfall. Saudi Arabia can profitably pump oil probably under $10/barrel. If demand drops, thats where oil should be.

China with [EVs|Solar|BESS|Turbines] will replace all of the fossil fuel countries (US, middle-east, Russia). This is probably the biggest transition in the history of mankind. This is energy production, storage and all the appliances that use electricity. After this, its incredibly hard for any other country to compete.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you elaborate a little? I suspect it is a well known concept, but its the first time I heard of it in this context.

Essentially its the idea that the interaction between an incumbent power and rising "challenger" power inevitably leads to war between the two. I was expressing my hope that if this does happen, the war can play out in less destructive arenas - one of which is in the competition for reserve currency status which the US has held for the whole of the modern era. This article possibly points at China's first shots in th…

> Essentially its a very old (~2.5k year) idea that the interaction between an incumbent power and rising "challenger" power inevitably leads to war between the two.

It sounds plausible, but if it is this old there must be a long list of examples. What are some of them?

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#95
post #30
post #19

Is it a yuan or is it a Renminbi?

It's a little confusing, but technically RMB (renminbi) is the official name of the currency and CNY (yuan) is the base unit of the currency. Think of it like the difference between USD ("US Dollar") vs "dollar and cents", except there is no fractional yuan equivalent of cents, so it's all just yuan.

No there are cents, they are called fen (分).

It's in Japan that it's all just Yen.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#96

Not a good thing. China is an authoritarian regime, which we need to reduce dependency on, not increase it.

I’m impressed. I had to scroll down ten top level comments in order to find a contentless but-China-regime comment. Good work HN.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#97
post #18
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It means the dollar is dying.

People have been saying the dollar is dying since the 19th century. They said it again during the Great Depression, the end of Bretton Woods and the 2008 Financial crisis..

Those people were right, it’s just that it will take more time that what they though.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#98
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rising power challenges the fading imperial hegemony. In this case, CNY displacing USD.

Is China still rising or already in decline?

their yough unemployment rate sure is rising, it sure ain't great to be young Chinese looking for job now

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/15/business/china-youth-unem...

https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d01203/

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1pedov5/oc...

also there are salary paycuts for people who already have work, my Chinese clients tried this, but not gonna accept it, I will rather lose such client than lower my rate, I am losing money by not increasing my rates over many years already despite huge EU cummulative inflation and EU salaries growth

by my experience visiting country after almost 10 years last year just by looking at salaries, restaurant prices, real estate prices/rent their economy seems to be stagnating in last 10 years, restaurant meal cost pretty much same as 10 years ago, same goes for entry level salaries like waitress, cook and other you can see in street

they are getting stronger overall, though doesn't seem like middle class is benefiting from it, my CN family bought apartment many years ago and they would have problem to sell it for same price, let alone make any profit on it

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you elaborate a little? I suspect it is a well known concept, but its the first time I heard of it in this context.

Essentially its the idea that the interaction between an incumbent power and rising "challenger" power inevitably leads to war between the two. I was expressing my hope that if this does happen, the war can play out in less destructive arenas - one of which is in the competition for reserve currency status which the US has held for the whole of the modern era. This article possibly points at China's first shots in th…

Its not an old idea at all. Its from a 2012 article by Graham Alison followed by a 2017 book on the rise of China specifically that Xi Jinping read and referenced.

Its claimed to be an old idea, but its actually only recently become popular

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