41–50 of 496 posts
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I, for one, would appreciate if we could just move on past these incessantly destructive power struggles as humanity.
Humans can not “move on” from human nature no matter how much people try to will it
It will be interesting to see how much of Thucydides Trap plays out in currency and trade as opposed to military conflict. I am hopeful that economic and financial warfare absorbs the brunt of the power struggle.
Can you elaborate a little? I suspect it is a well known concept, but its the first time I heard of it in this context.
Edit: credit LarsDu88 for correcting me on its age. I originally stated the idea was very old (2.5k years) but actually its a recent idea based on an ancient conflict between Athens and Sparta
The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.
I really hope this is one step into a more multipolar world, maybe without a single hegemon the world is easier to change for the better
The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.
while Yuan usage in trade will reduce the US influence, the amount of assets held in dollar nominated investments is so so much bigger, and this will very slowly change if it will at all.
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Can you elaborate a little? I suspect it is a well known concept, but its the first time I heard of it in this context.
Rising power challenges the fading imperial hegemony. In this case, CNY displacing USD.
The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.
The euro is in a much better position to be adopted as an alternative, but its share of global reserves has been flat at around 20% for years.
https://data.imf.org/en/news/imf%20data%20brief%20march%2027
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Relative to the US or Europe? I think you know the answer to that.
Relative to the US it’s not a straightforward answer but China is definitely not rising in the way it was a decade ago and has been outpaced by the us
But its relative GDP growth has been higher than the US for decades, is higher stil and is probably going to stay higher for years:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/real-gdp-growth?country=U...
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Can you elaborate a little? I suspect it is a well known concept, but its the first time I heard of it in this context.
President Xi of China mentioned it when the US President visited him in May. https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty-research/policy-topics/i...