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AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

blog.florianherrengt.com

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Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#811

Post by lilbigdoot »

inigyou wrote: post #654
Silhouette wrote: post #452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with making programming a regulated profession is who gets to define the regulations. You are probably imagining that it would be expert developers with a track record of success. I would bet on it being the people who write lots of blog posts and books about programming and give lots of conference keynotes - whether or not those people have any evidence base to support their advocated policies or any per…

Once I was talking about a video game and mentioned a global variable holding a reference to the player character and got the eyes wide open horrified look. Those people would be writing the regulations.

I am a FP nerd and I approve this message

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#813

Post by harrouet »

Inspiring article, I will keep the following bits:

- with AI, bad engineers (bad designs?) lead faster to catastrophe - Frontier AI companies pay their SW engineers very much

--> we need highly-skilled sw engineers and the lesser ones will get out.

Kind of what outsourcing did but x100.

As a manager, I'll still have to think how I grow young SW engineers to top SW managers.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#814

Post by ChrisMarshallNY »

Hi Florian,

Sorry to post this publicly, but there does not seem to be any other way to contact you. Your GH page is fairly locked-down, and the link there, is dead.

Your “Hire Me” and LinkedIn links in your blog are kaput (for me). It may have to do with UK LinkedIn not talking properly with US LinkedIn. I can find your profile there, but not through your blog links.

@dang @tomhow I may ask you guys to delete this, if it gets ack'd.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#815

Post by DC-3 »

edot wrote: post #706
level87 wrote: post #474

It’s difficult to have spent a long time learning something, only for that thing to suddenly become accessible to anyone; something that was once scarce and valuable is now abundant and cheap. There are still machinists doing things by hand, but for real production or prototyping, most will now use a 5-axis CNC machine. It still requires an operator of sorts, but much of the work that once required skilled manual mac…

My understanding of manual machining in the modern day is that only really big or really specialty jobs (as in, just a weird process that there isn’t a good CNC machine for) are done manually anymore. But specialty and low volume, which is exactly where LLMs are nice because I can spec it exactly how I want. I wonder what the software equivalent of “big” is. Like, you need a part made on a lathe with a 3 foot diamete…

The equivalent is probably weird, proprietary DSLs / standard libraries that AI has not been able to ingest so it performs poorly on. But maybe these days LLMs don't even really struggle with these sorts of domains.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#816

Post by joegibbs »

johnnyanmac wrote: post #709
edot wrote: post #699

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s his point, there isn’t one. You don’t need bespoke software anymore. We’ve got the basics already, all the standards we’d ever need, the agents can figure out how to put them together for whatever thing specific you need.

Well I'm not sure if that's a convincing premise, then. If micro libraries customized for the user's needs was all that was needed we wouldn't have most of the net moated out by overly invasive social media. Even if people could find the tools, they won't seek it if a one button solution can come to them. But we can't outcompete Instagram in a prompt, nor some popular app.

There’s probably already a LibTouchupGl available since 2005, a perfect touchup tool in 83kb, but nobody had heard of it. On the other hand people can just say “ChatGPT do everything” and it can

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#817

Post by CM30 »

I think this might be the key point to be honest, though not quite in the way the article suggests:

> My bet is that AI pushes salaries further apart. To be employable, there's a bar you have to clear and that bar is whatever the current best model du jour can do.

Since well, there are a lot of jobs in the tech industry that for all extents can be 'solved' with AI. Like if you're developing themes and plugins for a CMS (like say, WordPress), something like Claude can do a very passable job at that exact type of work.

So, only the more senior developers are even needed in that type of work anymore. And even they only need to review what the LLMs provide and fix issues maybe 10% of the time.

Hence the most basic, most entry level friendly engineering opportunities are likely about to be decimated. If your work involves building simple themes and plugins, managing the website of a small to medium sized business or being contracted to build sites for mum and pop companies, then your job security right now is questionable at best.

Being better/more skilled than AI is basically the bar you need to clear to find meaningful employment in this field now.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#818

Post by bandrami »

timr wrote: post #605
WalterBright wrote: post #596

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He went in for a monitored taking of the test.

Sure, sure. So now we have the worst of all possible worlds: an expensive interview process where the candidate has to be onsite, and a stupid evaluation mechanism that doesn't at all reflect real-world job requirements. And in exchange for the inconvenience of an in-person interview, the candidate gets treated like a number and is met with a stupid memorization gauntlet that tests a skill that quite literally will n…

The only job application process I've ever walked out on in the middle of was 25 years ago, when I was taking a proctored computer skills test and it dinged me for pressing the Windows key rather than moving the cursor to the Start button and clicking it.

So this is a new presentation of an old problem, I guess is the takeaway there.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#819

Post by roenxi »

breezybottom wrote: post #695
ElProlactin wrote: post #590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For one, the industry never did professionalize to begin with, certainly not in the way accountants, lawyers etc did. "Professionalize" is an interesting way to frame this. As Milton Friedman argued, occupational licensure is almost always pursued by the practitioners rather than consumers. The licensing boards are mostly run by practicing lawyers and CPAs, so you have practicing lawyers and CPAs determining who ca…

Milton Friedman was a libertarian crank. I'm a consumer and I'm quite happy that doctors and lawyers are licensed.

You can also buy from companies that hire licensed software engineers if you want to? The main thing that would stop people patronising licensed individuals is if there was no obvious skill gap between a licensed and unlicensed practitioner that justifies the price gap.

People don't need a government body to tell them to check for credentials. If people care they can ask (I had to give a copy of my degree certificate thingo to my employer a job or two ago, they cared that I was qualified). The whole and only point of mandating licensing is to raise prices for consumers.

EDIT

Just while I'm thinking about it, the law is expected to be easy enough for everyone to follow while simultaneously there is is an absurd legal fiction that only a licensed professional can talk sensibly about the law. It is internally inconsistent that lawyers would require a license.

Re: AI is removing the middle class of software engineering?

#820

Post by BatteryMountain »

overgard wrote: post #375
Syntaf wrote: post #35

> bad engineers were always a liability This part of the article hits home for me. With AI, "bad" engineers can now amplify their "bad" engineering x10 across the organization. The most egregious of these cases for me is often long tenured engineers who have lost interest in the craft, creating a dangerous combination of having enough merit to ship but not enough interest to make what they ship _good_. I am still a f…

I kind of think the whole "Learn to Code" push of the 2010s was one of the worst things that happened to our industry. Call me a gatekeeper if you want but, we ended up with a lot of people that just can't do the job. The problem is our industry mostly doesn't have any sort of reasonable mentorship or apprenticeship culture, so we've always left it to the engineers to teach themselves. Sink or swim. The problem is th…

I've seen a lot of Wordpress theme jockies in my country call themselves engineers and demand very high fees.. yet half of them do not know how the db works, when/how/when not to use queues, do not care about security ("the client will pay us to upgrade the site to be more secure"), do not know anything about real compilers, type safety etc. In my mind they were a scourge because we are not at the same level at all yet some of them earned more money/status than my peers. Some cases they have caused harm but nothing ever happened to them. So yeah, good the frog is being boiled now. Same with consultancies. They've been milking the system for 20 years, selling "dev hours". They are all getting eaten alive and I'm here for it.
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