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CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

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Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#181

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

pbh101 wrote: post #119
PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just around, or slightly around the level of testing that Roe vs Wade prior to Dobbs. Or a bakers dozen of other established precedents that were "one of the more tested legal concepts" until ... recently.

Generally speaking, no: there’s a significant difference in precedent between the two. IANAL, but interstate commerce is explicitly written into the Constitution as the jurisdiction of the federal government and was tested (and generally serially expanded) in court multiple times long before Roe.

Birthright citizenship is explicitly written into the Constitution, yet about a month ago, 2 SCOTUS justices provided opinions and votes suggesting that this detail doesn't matter much.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#182

Post by johnnyanmac »

dannyw wrote: post #113
tadfisher wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe an "event outcome prediction contract" simply ought not to be considered a "commodity" under any consistent interpretation of the law and the English fucking language.

I think it should be well defined. I personally think prediction markets for say, federal and state elections, are a net benefit. It provides another source off information, and there’s much less insider trading risk. “”Event outcome prediction contracts”” on sports, clinical trials, is late stage capitalism, and yes, bullshit.

>It provides another source off information, and there’s much less insider trading risk.

You see another source of information. I see another point of potential corruption. Statistics is already hard enough to do right without the extremely perverse incentives that gambling brings.

That said, gambling is still legal. Put it under its proper regulations and there's not really much I can say against it. Unless there is in fact regulations around gambling with election races.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#183

Post by dcrazy »

Kiln6125 wrote: post #175
amazingman wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Insurance against loss due to ... paying for insurance? The language of the thing is compelling at first glance, but it doesn't actually parse. Sharing your gambling wins with patrons to attract more patrons is not insurance .

Not quite. The two cases are "team loses, everyone goes home and doesn't buy loads of drinks" in which case you get the payout from having bet (sorry, purchased insurance) on that team losing, offsetting your loss from not getting the money from drinks. Alternatively, the team wins, you lose your bet (insurance pay) but everyone gets loads of drinks and you make your money that way.

That’s the opposite bet from what the bar owner placed.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#184

Post by triceratops »

subtlejellyfish wrote: post #171
triceratops wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's no equivalent instrument for sports. Options on the sports team's parent company. I mean you want to hedge against financial losses due to on-field performance but also commercial performance, right? What is the utility of hedging purely against on-field performance?

1. Very few sports teams I can think of have publicly traded parents 2. On field performance has little to do with financial gains/losses outside of gambling.

> Very few sports teams I can think of have publicly traded parents

Sure, but those are also the only kind where buying options to hedge losses makes sense. For privately owned teams, only the owner(s) ha(s|ve) any reason to try to hedge losses. They can buy some kind of "missed the playoffs" insurance, if anyone will sell it. Mostly though it's part of the game and they just deal with.

> On field performance has little to do with financial gains/losses outside of gambling.

Turning sporting outcomes into derivatives doesn't make it "not gambling" just because you say "but muh hedging strategy". On-field performance impacts commercial appeal and revenue. But ultimately hedging is about covering negative financial impacts, not betting on sporting outcomes. I think we're in agreement on this.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#185

Post by vharuck »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #181
pbh101 wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Generally speaking, no: there’s a significant difference in precedent between the two. IANAL, but interstate commerce is explicitly written into the Constitution as the jurisdiction of the federal government and was tested (and generally serially expanded) in court multiple times long before Roe.

Birthright citizenship is explicitly written into the Constitution, yet about a month ago, 2 SCOTUS justices provided opinions and votes suggesting that this detail doesn't matter much.

4, actually.

3 voted to allow the executive order rescinding birthright citizenship.

1 voted against the order, but on the reasoning that it violated a law from the early 1900s, not the Constitution.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#186

Post by TheCoelacanth »

mminer237 wrote: post #160
DannyBee wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except they haven't, because they did not request national relief. They requested state-specific relief.

I think the issue is that Kalshi is based in New York, so banning them from operation in New York is effectively shutting them down.

I don't see the relevance. If they don't want to follow New York law, they should move somewhere else.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#187

Post by seanw444 »

dannyw wrote: post #76
decimalenough wrote: post #4

Am I reading this right? The state of New York wants Kalshi to stop offering prediction gambling, excuse me, "event contracts" in New York, and the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission just ordered Kalshi to keep operating in New York regardless?

Yes. If you take Kalshi out of it, that’s exactly how the law is supposed to work. The State of New York does not have the power to compel NYSE to stop operating in New York either, irrespective of what laws NY passed, as that is with the SEC. They also can’t enforce a law saying companies in New York must file 10Qs every month or something. Again, federal. See: supremacy clause, interstate commerce. (The latter has…

The interstate commerce clause is hilarious. It's the ultimate freebie for the feds. They can argue their case for pretty much anything they want with it.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#188

Post by TheCoelacanth »

waterheater wrote: post #44
quink wrote: post #18

Just listen to the overwhelming silence from the “states’ rights” crowd.

Most people invoke the "states' rights" platitude when the federal government oversteps on constitutional matters that haven't been specifically legislated. In this case, Congress already passed a law regulating these activities, and it seems pretty clear-cut that Kalshi engages in interstate commerce, so New York will likely lose if this gets to the Supreme Court. That's not to say I think event prediction markets a…

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates (checks notes) trading of commodities futures.

It's a pretty wild interpretation to claim that the Knicks winning is a commodity.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#189

Post by throwaway-blaze »

somat wrote: post #167
aliasxneo wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems that New York is asking the court for a temporary restraining order that would prohibit Kalshi from offering all event contracts nationwide. I also have zero love for Kalshi, but I can see why such a request would be concerning, regardless of whether I think Kalshi is a degenerate trash heap.

It sounds like it's more, New York wants to halt Kalshi's New york operation, however Kalshi is headquartered in New York, so this would stop all of Kalshi's operations.] If New York has this jurisdiction(management of for profit incorporation's in New York) Kalshi would have to reorganize somewhere else to continue operations.

Kalshi is a Delaware corporation.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#190

Post by somat »

throwaway-blaze wrote: post #189
somat wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sounds like it's more, New York wants to halt Kalshi's New york operation, however Kalshi is headquartered in New York, so this would stop all of Kalshi's operations.] If New York has this jurisdiction(management of for profit incorporation's in New York) Kalshi would have to reorganize somewhere else to continue operations.

Kalshi is a Delaware corporation.

Fair enough, Their headquarters however are in New York. An interesting case to be sure.
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