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Grok 4.6

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Re: Grok 4.6

#31

Post by extr »

causal wrote: post #23

Anyone else find it weird how within 2 months of Fable releasing all the major labs suddenly had Fable-level models? Trying to think of explanations: 1) AI researchers talk and change companies often, so techniques circulate. This feels implausible because training and shipping a new model ought to take longer than 2 months? 2) Distillation - also implausible for the reason above. 3) Benchmark hacking. AI companies h…

It's because Fable is just synthetic RL tasks + scale. The secret has been out for awhile now.

Re: Grok 4.6

#32

Post by Traubenfuchs »

causal wrote: post #23

Anyone else find it weird how within 2 months of Fable releasing all the major labs suddenly had Fable-level models? Trying to think of explanations: 1) AI researchers talk and change companies often, so techniques circulate. This feels implausible because training and shipping a new model ought to take longer than 2 months? 2) Distillation - also implausible for the reason above. 3) Benchmark hacking. AI companies h…

> other reasons

Maybe research is sufficiently public and simple to reproduce or the next steps of how to improve things are sufficiently obvious to the smart people working on frontier AI.

Re: Grok 4.6

#33

Post by bottlepalm »

causal wrote: post #23

Anyone else find it weird how within 2 months of Fable releasing all the major labs suddenly had Fable-level models? Trying to think of explanations: 1) AI researchers talk and change companies often, so techniques circulate. This feels implausible because training and shipping a new model ought to take longer than 2 months? 2) Distillation - also implausible for the reason above. 3) Benchmark hacking. AI companies h…

I think model level is more a function of the state of hardware. Once it exists and is available (and if a lab can afford it), then they can train their own 1T, 5T, coming up next 10T model.

Re: Grok 4.6

#34

Post by jerf »

causal wrote: post #23

Anyone else find it weird how within 2 months of Fable releasing all the major labs suddenly had Fable-level models? Trying to think of explanations: 1) AI researchers talk and change companies often, so techniques circulate. This feels implausible because training and shipping a new model ought to take longer than 2 months? 2) Distillation - also implausible for the reason above. 3) Benchmark hacking. AI companies h…

Possibility: They're all hitting the same plateau of what LLMs can do with their current architectures.

I'm not stating this as a fact, but it's a hypothesis I'm keeping in my mix.

Re: Grok 4.6

#35

Post by tonyhart7 »

Jcampuzano2 wrote: post #26

As polarizing as grok is, it was basically inevitable for it to start being a real competitor given how much investment SpaceX made into its own inference capabilities. Seems if you are okay with it, there's no reason to use anything but the highest effort levels of some other frontier models for the price. I think Grok provides healthy competition to the other labs, though I do think they bank on groks reputation ma…

more competition is always good

Re: Grok 4.6

#36

Post by amberjack »

Still not dead somehow even though they've been renting out datacenter capacity and other (seeming) problems with people leaving and so on. Quite impressive unless it's just been benchmaxxed.

Re: Grok 4.6

#38

Post by becquerel »

causal wrote: post #23

Anyone else find it weird how within 2 months of Fable releasing all the major labs suddenly had Fable-level models? Trying to think of explanations: 1) AI researchers talk and change companies often, so techniques circulate. This feels implausible because training and shipping a new model ought to take longer than 2 months? 2) Distillation - also implausible for the reason above. 3) Benchmark hacking. AI companies h…

More compute is coming online at all times.

Re: Grok 4.6

#39

Post by causal »

glimshe wrote: post #29
causal wrote: post #23

Anyone else find it weird how within 2 months of Fable releasing all the major labs suddenly had Fable-level models? Trying to think of explanations: 1) AI researchers talk and change companies often, so techniques circulate. This feels implausible because training and shipping a new model ought to take longer than 2 months? 2) Distillation - also implausible for the reason above. 3) Benchmark hacking. AI companies h…

4) There's nothing terribly special about Anthropic. No moat.

Agreed, but my suspicion is tied to the timing. Catching up eventually is to be expected. Having similar jumps in capability ready at the same time is odd.

Re: Grok 4.6

#40

Post by Jcampuzano2 »

causal wrote: post #23

Anyone else find it weird how within 2 months of Fable releasing all the major labs suddenly had Fable-level models? Trying to think of explanations: 1) AI researchers talk and change companies often, so techniques circulate. This feels implausible because training and shipping a new model ought to take longer than 2 months? 2) Distillation - also implausible for the reason above. 3) Benchmark hacking. AI companies h…

I'm pretty sure both Anthropic and OpenAI haven't necessarily been secretive that they have internal models that are much more capable than commercially available ones.

It's probably a mix of all of that plus simply always keeping one in the chamber to 1up everyone else when the time is right.

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