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CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

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Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#151

Post by inigyou »

aliasxneo wrote: post #30
akerl_ wrote: post #15

EDIT: see DannyBee's comment below ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49266746 ). It does look like the CFTC has extrapolated the "nationwide" out of either some novel interpretation of the filing or just entirely fabricated it as their justification for their action. I've got no love for Kalshi, but "orders Kalshi to continue operate in New York" doesn't seem to be present anywhere in the actual release. The art…

It seems that New York is asking the court for a temporary restraining order that would prohibit Kalshi from offering all event contracts nationwide. I also have zero love for Kalshi, but I can see why such a request would be concerning, regardless of whether I think Kalshi is a degenerate trash heap.

When Texas shut down porn sites internationally, this didn't happen, the order from Texas was allowed to stand. This is because Texas is a red state and NY is blue.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#152

Post by tsimionescu »

charcircuit wrote: post #142
tsimionescu wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a framing that obscures rather than illuminating. Perhaps in this specific case, the prediction market bet acts as insurance (and even then, only for those market participants who are actual Cloudflare customers; many others are simply taking a bet). But the prediction market allows bets of many other kinds, many of which do not act as insurance against anything. Sports bets are the most obvious, but also ele…

>many others are simply taking a bet Which can provide much needed liquidity to the market.

That's irrelevant. It's still gambling, or even worse - direct payment for successfully attacking Cloudflare's infrastructure.

The point overall is that the "prediction markets" don't act as real insurance, it's just a tangential side effect for a minority of participants.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#153

Post by clickety_clack »

Terr_ wrote: post #20

> said Chairman Michael S. Selig. “Congress did not intend for derivatives exchanges to be regulated under a patchwork of state gaming laws. Ah yes, "derivatives" which are "not intended to fall under gaming laws" such as... *checks Kalshi website* 58 million dollars riding on which team is the 2027 NFL champion. Oh yeah, totally a financial derivative there, not related to gambling at all. *sigh*

See here, I’m just a poor NFL Championship farmer. Without these futures to give me some certainty around prices, it’s just too risky to plant these crops. You city folk think that NFL Championships grow in your fancy stadiums, and you never see all the work I put into feeding and watering all these athletes. It’s risky enough as it is, the crop can fail due to weather, or even something so small as Dave forgetting to wear his lucky socks when a game is on.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#154

Post by AlotOfReading »

nickff wrote: post #145
tyre wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the gp just means, “if we put aside that this is a contentious company.” I’m not sure that interstate commerce should apply here—it seems correct that a state can ban gambling, even if it is on the Internet against out-of-state US nationals—but if the CFTC is asserting its pre-emption under existing law, it needs to assert it (as it is doing so here.) It’s pretty clear that this is (a) gambling and (b) explic…

If Wickard v Filburn is still good law, I don’t understand how the betting market is anything but interstate commerce. Futures trading is betting, especially where they’re settled in cash.

States have been individually regulating gambling within their borders since they were English colonies. No one interpreted it as interstate commerce until PASPA in 1992, which was gutted by Murphy.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#156

Post by Izkata »

mrandish wrote: post #124
aliasxneo wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems that New York is asking the court for a temporary restraining order that would prohibit Kalshi from offering all event contracts nationwide. I also have zero love for Kalshi, but I can see why such a request would be concerning, regardless of whether I think Kalshi is a degenerate trash heap.

In saying, "New York seeks a temporary restraining order prohibiting KalshiEX, LLC from offering all event contracts nationwide" the CFTC's press release substantially misrepresents the filing by the NY AG. On page 29, the filing requests "Permanently enjoining Respondent and its principals, agents, and employees from operating an unlawful gambling business, or otherwise advancing gambling activity, or profiting from…

Take out some of the "or"s that obscure it and you get "or otherwise advancing gambling activity from New York, without being licensed by the New York State Gaming Commission". Seems very straightforward to me.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#157

Post by mminer237 »

bhouston wrote: post #93
akerl_ wrote: post #15

EDIT: see DannyBee's comment below ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49266746 ). It does look like the CFTC has extrapolated the "nationwide" out of either some novel interpretation of the filing or just entirely fabricated it as their justification for their action. I've got no love for Kalshi, but "orders Kalshi to continue operate in New York" doesn't seem to be present anywhere in the actual release. The art…

Your claim here is wrong: > 2. The State of NY files for a temporary restraining order requiring Kalshi to halt trading nationally, not just in NY. The State of New York did *NOT* file a temporary restraining order, neither in NY or nationally. Please find a citation of that if you want to claim it is true. Rather the State of New York filed suit here to stop operations in New York: https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/20…

New York did file for a TRO: https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nysd.66...

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#158

Post by miohtama »

inigyou wrote: post #151
aliasxneo wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems that New York is asking the court for a temporary restraining order that would prohibit Kalshi from offering all event contracts nationwide. I also have zero love for Kalshi, but I can see why such a request would be concerning, regardless of whether I think Kalshi is a degenerate trash heap.

When Texas shut down porn sites internationally, this didn't happen, the order from Texas was allowed to stand. This is because Texas is a red state and NY is blue.

Porn sites do not have CFTC to defend them.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#159

Post by miohtama »

galleywest200 wrote: post #94
beckford wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most important lines to me are the CFTC Chairman's quote: > These are financial exchanges that offer financial instruments and operate across state lines. They match the bid from a resident of one state with the offer of a resident from another state and submit the trade to a clearinghouse that backstops the transactions of customers throughout the country. New York has no business regulating these interstate fin…

Isn't this how gambling works though? You and I place a similar value of chips on a table, then the winner walks it over to a third party (the counter at the casino) to exchange the chips for currency?

In gambling, you are betting against the sportsbook run by the house, not peers.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#160

Post by mminer237 »

DannyBee wrote: post #60
akerl_ wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I (unfortunately) think that the NY AG screwed up our opportunity to press that question by aiming nationally. The CFTC got to skip that and just shut down the national TRO. I'd love to see another state push for a state-specific restriction and see how that plays out.

Except they haven't, because they did not request national relief. They requested state-specific relief.

I think the issue is that Kalshi is based in New York, so banning them from operation in New York is effectively shutting them down.
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