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CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

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Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#111

Post by everforward »

beckford wrote: post #82
akerl_ wrote: post #15

EDIT: see DannyBee's comment below ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49266746 ). It does look like the CFTC has extrapolated the "nationwide" out of either some novel interpretation of the filing or just entirely fabricated it as their justification for their action. I've got no love for Kalshi, but "orders Kalshi to continue operate in New York" doesn't seem to be present anywhere in the actual release. The art…

The most important lines to me are the CFTC Chairman's quote: > These are financial exchanges that offer financial instruments and operate across state lines. They match the bid from a resident of one state with the offer of a resident from another state and submit the trade to a clearinghouse that backstops the transactions of customers throughout the country. New York has no business regulating these interstate fin…

That’s pretty normal though, and has been for ages. A lot of states have random laws around the things you can sell there, even though it would prevent an out of state entity from selling the product there.

Liquor laws come to mind, you usually need special distribution stuff per state.

It would be a wild expansion of the commerce clause to prevent states from regulating what can be sold inside the state.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#112

Post by freejazz »

brink wrote: post #33
quink wrote: post #18

Just listen to the overwhelming silence from the “states’ rights” crowd.

This has little to do with NY governing NY. NY was attempting to govern Kalshi in other states, which it doesn't have the authority to do.

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Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#113

Post by dannyw »

tadfisher wrote: post #103
decimalenough wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's kind of hard to take Kalshi out of this, since the whole premise for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's authority here is that Kalshi is a commodity futures trading exchange, not a gambling site.

Maybe an "event outcome prediction contract" simply ought not to be considered a "commodity" under any consistent interpretation of the law and the English fucking language.

I think it should be well defined. I personally think prediction markets for say, federal and state elections, are a net benefit.

It provides another source off information, and there’s much less insider trading risk.

“”Event outcome prediction contracts”” on sports, clinical trials, is late stage capitalism, and yes, bullshit.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#114

Post by dmix »

georgemcbay wrote: post #17

Wait, so all that Republican talk of support for state's rights was really just all about the racism this whole time? Shocker.

It's disingenuous to pretend the current US admin prioritizes state rights or separation of powers. They have very explicitly pushed an ideology of unitary power and maximizing their control of federal agencies over congress and state powers.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#115

Post by abduhl »

charcircuit wrote: post #87
skillina wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course not. If a building exists, there is a risk it burns down. Insurance just moves that risk around. The only way to eliminate the risk is to not build anything anywhere.

So what would be the difference between buying insurance against downtime of a service you depend on (eg. Cloudflare) vs making a bet on the prediction market that there will be downtime? Even without these markets there is risk that the service goes down. The existence of the prediction market doesn't cause it to be possible.

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Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#116

Post by [deleted] »

wahern wrote: post #72
nickff wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is a link to a post about the State of New York's case: https://www.shb.com/intelligence/newsletters/securities-liti... I am not sure about how the state regulation of betting will turn out (though I would have guessed that it is indeed pre-empted), but the nationwide injunction seems shaky given Trump v Casa: https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/24pdf/24a884_8n59.pdf

I don't think Casa applies here. A nationwide injunction is not the same thing as a universal injunction. A universal injunction benefits non-parties to a case. But if an injunction, especially a TRO, requires nationwide effect to protect the interests of NY, who is a party, then that's fine. Also note that Kalshi is based in NYC, AFAIU; it's not a situation of a state court trying to control the out-of-state actions…

[deleted]

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#117

Post by [deleted] »

galleywest200 wrote: post #94
beckford wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most important lines to me are the CFTC Chairman's quote: > These are financial exchanges that offer financial instruments and operate across state lines. They match the bid from a resident of one state with the offer of a resident from another state and submit the trade to a clearinghouse that backstops the transactions of customers throughout the country. New York has no business regulating these interstate fin…

Isn't this how gambling works though? You and I place a similar value of chips on a table, then the winner walks it over to a third party (the counter at the casino) to exchange the chips for currency?

[deleted]

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#118

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

galleywest200 wrote: post #94
beckford wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most important lines to me are the CFTC Chairman's quote: > These are financial exchanges that offer financial instruments and operate across state lines. They match the bid from a resident of one state with the offer of a resident from another state and submit the trade to a clearinghouse that backstops the transactions of customers throughout the country. New York has no business regulating these interstate fin…

Isn't this how gambling works though? You and I place a similar value of chips on a table, then the winner walks it over to a third party (the counter at the casino) to exchange the chips for currency?

It's a relatively uncommon structure for gambling, and things that do work that way (like casual sports bets between friends) are often exempt from local gambling laws. Traditional sports betting was done directly between a gambler and their sportsbook of choice at whatever profit-maximizing odds the bookie chose.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#119

Post by pbh101 »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #91
akerl_ wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea; interstate commerce being the domain of the federal government is one of the more tested legal concepts we have here.

Just around, or slightly around the level of testing that Roe vs Wade prior to Dobbs. Or a bakers dozen of other established precedents that were "one of the more tested legal concepts" until ... recently.

Generally speaking, no: there’s a significant difference in precedent between the two. IANAL, but interstate commerce is explicitly written into the Constitution as the jurisdiction of the federal government and was tested (and generally serially expanded) in court multiple times long before Roe.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#120

Post by georgemcbay »

dmix wrote: post #114
georgemcbay wrote: post #17

Wait, so all that Republican talk of support for state's rights was really just all about the racism this whole time? Shocker.

It's disingenuous to pretend the current US admin prioritizes state rights or separation of powers. They have very explicitly pushed an ideology of unitary power and maximizing their control of federal agencies over congress and state powers.

The Republicans don't just control the executive, they also control both chambers of Congress (and, lets be real, the Supreme Court as well).

The fact that they don't act like it and just allow the executive to do whatever it wants doesn't absolve them of responsibility for what the executive does.

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