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CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

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Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#91

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

akerl_ wrote: post #32
aliasxneo wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems that New York is asking the court for a temporary restraining order that would prohibit Kalshi from offering all event contracts nationwide. I also have zero love for Kalshi, but I can see why such a request would be concerning, regardless of whether I think Kalshi is a degenerate trash heap.

Yea; interstate commerce being the domain of the federal government is one of the more tested legal concepts we have here.

Just around, or slightly around the level of testing that Roe vs Wade prior to Dobbs. Or a bakers dozen of other established precedents that were "one of the more tested legal concepts" until ... recently.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#92

Post by EGreg »

“New York intends to make event contract derivatives waste away under its iron curtain of state gaming laws before the courts get the chance to issue final rulings,” said Chairman Michael S. Selig.

President Donald J. Trump nominated Michael S. Selig to serve as the 16th Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on October 27, 2025. The U.S. Senate confirmed him on December 18, 2025, and he was sworn into office on December 22, 2025.

This is the time for crypto projects to enjoy Federal protection.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#93

Post by bhouston »

akerl_ wrote: post #15

EDIT: see DannyBee's comment below ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49266746 ). It does look like the CFTC has extrapolated the "nationwide" out of either some novel interpretation of the filing or just entirely fabricated it as their justification for their action. I've got no love for Kalshi, but "orders Kalshi to continue operate in New York" doesn't seem to be present anywhere in the actual release. The art…

Your claim here is wrong:

> 2. The State of NY files for a temporary restraining order requiring Kalshi to halt trading nationally, not just in NY.

The State of New York did *NOT* file a temporary restraining order, neither in NY or nationally. Please find a citation of that if you want to claim it is true.

Rather the State of New York filed suit here to stop operations in New York:

https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2026/governor-hochul-and-att...

Specifically the lawsuit asks for:

"Permanently enjoining Respondent and its principals, agents, and employees from operating an unlawful gambling business, or otherwise advancing gambling activity, or profiting from gambling activity, within or from New York or to persons in New York, without being licensed by the New York State Gaming Commission"

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#94

Post by galleywest200 »

beckford wrote: post #82
akerl_ wrote: post #15

EDIT: see DannyBee's comment below ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49266746 ). It does look like the CFTC has extrapolated the "nationwide" out of either some novel interpretation of the filing or just entirely fabricated it as their justification for their action. I've got no love for Kalshi, but "orders Kalshi to continue operate in New York" doesn't seem to be present anywhere in the actual release. The art…

The most important lines to me are the CFTC Chairman's quote: > These are financial exchanges that offer financial instruments and operate across state lines. They match the bid from a resident of one state with the offer of a resident from another state and submit the trade to a clearinghouse that backstops the transactions of customers throughout the country. New York has no business regulating these interstate fin…

Isn't this how gambling works though? You and I place a similar value of chips on a table, then the winner walks it over to a third party (the counter at the casino) to exchange the chips for currency?

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#95

Post by BLKNSLVR »

subtlejellyfish wrote: post #71
xp84 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ELI5 why it's better for you to place a $10,000 bet that, say, GOOG falls below $300 by February 2028, than to bet the same that the Pats win the Super Bowl? They're both gambling.

There's a legitimate, non-gambling use case: hedging against your existing position in GOOG. There's no equivalent instrument for sports.

That sounds _exactly_ like a gambling use case.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#96

Post by eclipticplane »

decimalenough wrote: post #78
dannyw wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. If you take Kalshi out of it, that’s exactly how the law is supposed to work. The State of New York does not have the power to compel NYSE to stop operating in New York either, irrespective of what laws NY passed, as that is with the SEC. They also can’t enforce a law saying companies in New York must file 10Qs every month or something. Again, federal. See: supremacy clause, interstate commerce. (The latter has…

It's kind of hard to take Kalshi out of this, since the whole premise for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's authority here is that Kalshi is a commodity futures trading exchange, not a gambling site.

When can I take delivery of my 2026 NBA Knicks team, that I purchased through the commodity futures market? I'm available Friday.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#97

Post by wredcoll »

charcircuit wrote: post #87
skillina wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course not. If a building exists, there is a risk it burns down. Insurance just moves that risk around. The only way to eliminate the risk is to not build anything anywhere.

So what would be the difference between buying insurance against downtime of a service you depend on (eg. Cloudflare) vs making a bet on the prediction market that there will be downtime? Even without these markets there is risk that the service goes down. The existence of the prediction market doesn't cause it to be possible.

There is no risk to me if the rockets lose their next game. Unless I bet $100 on them winning, then a risk appears.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#98

Post by akerl_ »

DannyBee wrote: post #85
akerl_ wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Edited my earlier comment to point here. Is your assessment that CFTC is pulling the broader impact fully out of the air, or are likely to try to spin the coverage of events in New York for participants outside of New York as counting as interstate commerce?

Oh worse than that. The "emergency powers" they speak of are 7 U.S.C. § 12a(9), and they are quite specific. It gives them the authority to direct a registered entity to do a few specific things. None of those things are relevant to here. It's stuff like emergency margin requirements, position limits, etc. Not "violate state law". It gives them no power to enable a registered entity to violate a TRO, or anything like…

Wanted to thank you for the highly informative breakdown, especially given we got here by me making the mistake of not pulling up the underlying complaint before commenting.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#99

Post by tyre »

decimalenough wrote: post #78
dannyw wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. If you take Kalshi out of it, that’s exactly how the law is supposed to work. The State of New York does not have the power to compel NYSE to stop operating in New York either, irrespective of what laws NY passed, as that is with the SEC. They also can’t enforce a law saying companies in New York must file 10Qs every month or something. Again, federal. See: supremacy clause, interstate commerce. (The latter has…

It's kind of hard to take Kalshi out of this, since the whole premise for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's authority here is that Kalshi is a commodity futures trading exchange, not a gambling site.

I think the gp just means, “if we put aside that this is a contentious company.”

I’m not sure that interstate commerce should apply here—it seems correct that a state can ban gambling, even if it is on the Internet against out-of-state US nationals—but if the CFTC is asserting its pre-emption under existing law, it needs to assert it (as it is doing so here.)

It’s pretty clear that this is (a) gambling and (b) explicitly excluded from the CFTC’s legal mandate (“gaming”), but obviously this is about corruption and not a good faith interpretation.

I expect this to go to the Supreme Court and for the Court to side with the corruption.

Re: CFTC declares market emergency, orders Kalshi to continue to operate in New York

#100

Post by dogtorwoof »

decimalenough wrote: post #4

Am I reading this right? The state of New York wants Kalshi to stop offering prediction gambling, excuse me, "event contracts" in New York, and the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission just ordered Kalshi to keep operating in New York regardless?

Prediction gambling excuse me event contracts excuse me insider trading excuse me that’s the whole point of prediction markets
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