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Nvidia's Risky Business

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Re: Nvidia's Risky Business

#11

Post by spwa4 »

tolugenius wrote: post #2

More interesting take on Nvidia's position than I've come across before. One thing to be noted is 1) Nvidia is already making moves in robotics so even if their position in AI (moreso llms) diminished, they certainly have another big avenue arguably harder to just get into (although I'm not sure what efforts Google is doing for the tpu in robotics). Another point is Nvidia is still the main player in the west , that…

Google has their robotics models, for example:

https://deepmind.google/models/gemini-robotics/

Google is mostly the party behind the whole VLA principle.

Re: Nvidia's Risky Business

#12

Post by ekianjo »

wongarsu wrote: post #3
tolugenius wrote: post #2

More interesting take on Nvidia's position than I've come across before. One thing to be noted is 1) Nvidia is already making moves in robotics so even if their position in AI (moreso llms) diminished, they certainly have another big avenue arguably harder to just get into (although I'm not sure what efforts Google is doing for the tpu in robotics). Another point is Nvidia is still the main player in the west , that…

Even in the west, Nvidia's dominance is bound to weaken. There is a notable uptick of articles on HN about people running large models on AMD hardware. And while I don't know official sales figures, I know we have trouble getting our AMD system delivered AMD's software story is still a lot worse than Nvidia's. But patching up vllm to run one or two models you care about on AMD hardware is a much easier proposition th…

amd is not putting nearly enough effort to improve their software its almost suspicious

Re: Nvidia's Risky Business

#15

Post by flyinglizard »

claytonjy wrote: post #10
u1hcw9nx wrote: post #4

Ever free newsletter and talking head spouts narratives like this free. If you want something that quantifies and gives actionable information, you must do it yourself or pay for it. What are your below $2000/month sources for good analysis?

you might be looking for SemiAnalysis? I only read the free portions of articles but they have various paid options, mostly targeting investors with information and tools. https://semianalysis.com/

To me they come across as overzealous peddlers and hacks on some market pumping mission.

Re: Nvidia's Risky Business

#16

Post by kaonwarb »

u1hcw9nx wrote: post #9
tguedes wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The website from this article. It's not free. Ben Thompson releases 1 free article a week but the other 3 articles published each week requires a $15/month subscription. Ben Thompson is also very influential in Silicon Valley and the overall tech/media industry.

I know him, I subscribed for a while. Even his paid content is lacking. I'm looking more Valens Research kind of analysis. SemiAnalysis is also good in the higher tier. ps. Being influential in Silicon Valley just means you are influential, it does not mean substantial. Leopold is still influential and gets money thrown at him at $100s of million despite having no substance.

Criticism with no justification behind it is cheap.

Re: Nvidia's Risky Business

#17

Post by jcfrei »

In many investment theses - like Nvidia's bet that demand for compute will keep growing - the first order assumption is usually correct. Yes, demand for more compute, chips, infrastructure is huge and each year some additional data centers will be built. Where such investment bets usually fail is in the second-order assumptions: Ie. the expectation of the growth of demand. This is where there's a high chance that the current expectations are likely exaggerated. So: demand is likely to persist for the foreseeable future but not increase every year. And that can upend the whole investment story. That can be enough to make these bonds a huge burden for Nvidia in the end. Not because people stopped buying more compute but because they stopped buying more every year.

Re: Nvidia's Risky Business

#18

Post by [deleted] »

u1hcw9nx wrote: post #4

Ever free newsletter and talking head spouts narratives like this free. If you want something that quantifies and gives actionable information, you must do it yourself or pay for it. What are your below $2000/month sources for good analysis?

[deleted]

Re: Nvidia's Risky Business

#19

Post by BigTTYGothGF »

u1hcw9nx wrote: post #4

Ever free newsletter and talking head spouts narratives like this free. If you want something that quantifies and gives actionable information, you must do it yourself or pay for it. What are your below $2000/month sources for good analysis?

If you have to ask you're not going to benefit from it.
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