> We can now generate a single 15-day forecast in less than a minute on a TPU, empowering forecasters to quickly evaluate the probability distribution of potentially devastating tail-risks.
Crazy
DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones
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Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones
#12They should try to forecast earthquakes, that would really be a breakthrough If anything better than random comes out
This was my immediate hope too, as fault line resident
Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones
#13[flagged]
Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones
#14> We can now generate a single 15-day forecast in less than a minute on a TPU, empowering forecasters to quickly evaluate the probability distribution of potentially devastating tail-risks. Crazy
"This has surprised scientists, and it remains an open research question to fully understand how our models produce such accurate predictions at this resolution."
Also crazy.
Seems important to understand why something does what it does, in the very least to know when it might not?
Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones
#15Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wake me up once commercial airplanes can take advantage of this and take us across the Atlantic in less than 5 hours.
planes fly above the weather, so kinda irrelevant. you can cross the atlantic fast with something like the Concorde
Well, that explains why even cyclones don't make us faster!
Obviously the technology I'm talking about would involve the planes going into the cyclone so plane can go faster.
Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones
#16I just discovered typhoon/cyclone predictions and they're insane. I get mine via https://zoom.earth (whose iPhone app is terrific). Here's a selection from Typhoon Dolphin, currently sitting off the east coast of China. Dolphin continues its slow, trochoidal Z motion, generally heading westward deeper into the East China Sea. Over the past 12 hours, the system completed another cyclonic loop and has decelerated, exhi…
If you’re just getting into this tropical tidbits[0] is my go to for more raw data. Less pretty than zoom earth but also an interesting place to see what the models are predicting on each of their runs which is then interesting to compare to actual forecast guidance.
Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones
#17Maybe was this that was the last drop for Sundar. Demis: "I have a new amazing breakthrough" Sundar: "Great! We really need a answer to Sol and Fable" Demis: "They are completely owned in typhoon forecasting"
Ironically typhoon forecasting, at this moment, is more valuable. These predictions are matters of life, death, and billions of dollars in damage.
Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones
#18Maybe was this that was the last drop for Sundar. Demis: "I have a new amazing breakthrough" Sundar: "Great! We really need a answer to Sol and Fable" Demis: "They are completely owned in typhoon forecasting"
Ironically typhoon forecasting, at this moment, is more valuable. These predictions are matters of life, death, and billions of dollars in damage.
Valuable, agreed. But lucrative?
Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones
#19They should try to forecast earthquakes, that would really be a breakthrough If anything better than random comes out
Google has the early warning system that gives people maybe 20-30s to e.g. turn off gas, stop vehicles, get under something solid. There was a lot of news recently about how this saved many thousands of lives in Venezuela I think it was. But hey let's all keep shitting on Google because their coding agent is slightly worse than SOTA.
This needs to be tied to a whole house shutoff system because if I get an alert I’m not thinking about shutting off my gas or water. Having a system that shut those off immediately would be great
Re: DeepMind's WeatherNext model achieves breakthrough forecasting cyclones
#20They should try to forecast earthquakes, that would really be a breakthrough If anything better than random comes out
Google has the early warning system that gives people maybe 20-30s to e.g. turn off gas, stop vehicles, get under something solid. There was a lot of news recently about how this saved many thousands of lives in Venezuela I think it was. But hey let's all keep shitting on Google because their coding agent is slightly worse than SOTA.
> But hey let's all keep shitting on Google because their coding agent is slightly worse than SOTA.
Reminder, we can do two or even more things. In fact, we can even simultaneously hold contradictory opinions.