Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support • Hacker News Board

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#21

Post by mrec » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 11:26 AM UTC

amelius wrote: post #20

mrec wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is that conventional strike can provide a meaningful deterrent, even without the NATO umbrella or a domestic nuclear capability. If Putin had known in 2022 what this utterly gratuitous war would end up costing Russia, there's no way he would have gone ahead with it.

The problem is this: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/30/us-firm-drone-... If you can't defend yourself, then it is increasingly difficult to attack.

You seem to be only applying this observation to one side, though. Russian arms manufacturing has come under attack too.

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#22

Post by epolanski » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 11:27 AM UTC

greedo wrote: post #16

epolanski wrote: post #2

Both this event as well as the Iranian campaign expose the low stock piles that most NATO countries are facing. But it's also exposing the effectiveness of asymmetric warfare. A single patriot missile, a single one, costs around $ 4 million, and its the only weapon that may intercept missiles that cost 1.5 up to 40 times less. Even when taking the major Russian ballistic missiles like the Kh101, the Iskander and Kali…

PAC-3 MSE can take down Iskanders. Not a very favorable exchange rate when you fire 2-3 per Iskander, but still doable. If NATO was fighting Russia, launch aircraft (and airbases) would be prime targets. Ukraine fights the way it does because of very limited funds and resources.

Not really, interception success rate fell from 37% to 7% as Iskanders got upgraded.

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#23

Post by epolanski » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 11:29 AM UTC

consumer451 wrote: post #17

epolanski wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are more likely to be misses than deliberate attacks. There's no value in striking apartment blocks void of military equipments. You don't spend money to do so if you can hit more precious military or logistic or energy infrastructure.

There are way too many residential buildings hit for it to be an accident, all the time. It’s a part of Moscow’s strategy to weaken civilian resolve. They did the same thing in Chechnya.

That's speculation.

Let alone the fact that you can weaken civilian resolve better by hitting logistical hubs and energy infrastructure.

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#24

Post by rstuart4133 » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 11:56 AM UTC

amelius wrote: post #20

mrec wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is that conventional strike can provide a meaningful deterrent, even without the NATO umbrella or a domestic nuclear capability. If Putin had known in 2022 what this utterly gratuitous war would end up costing Russia, there's no way he would have gone ahead with it.

The problem is this: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/30/us-firm-drone-... If you can't defend yourself, then it is increasingly difficult to attack.

I have no idea what a drone factory is, but my mental image is a building with drone parts on one side, people assembling with glue, screwdrivers and soldering irons in the middle, and finished drones in boxes at the far end. It that building is destroyed by a missile you've lost a few drones and a building. No people were hurt, so just move to a new building.

The images out of Russia are a little different. Billions of dollars of plant and equipment blown up, hundreds of ships disabled, entire Wildberry warehouses covering acres going up in smoke. It doesn't seem to be in the same ballpark as a few days outage while you move stock and employees to a new location.

Maybe I'm missing something.

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#25

Post by consumer451 » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

epolanski wrote: post #23

consumer451 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are way too many residential buildings hit for it to be an accident, all the time. It’s a part of Moscow’s strategy to weaken civilian resolve. They did the same thing in Chechnya.

That's speculation. Let alone the fact that you can weaken civilian resolve better by hitting logistical hubs and energy infrastructure.

In any case, if you are watching the invader launch Shaheds into your country, and know that many will hit buildings full of people, that has to be factored in as well. Even if it cost $1M to take down a $25k Shahed, but it saved a life/lives, I could see a decision maker still doing that. I am certainly glad that I am not in the position to make such a decision.

Of course, unless you have 40x the budget of the enemy forever, it's not sustainable. Also, how fast can you produce your $1M missile, vs. the enemy's $25k Shahed?

I have been arguing that Shahed-style (cheap/easy to build/very long-range) cruise missiles completely changed the nature of warfare, for years now. A saturation attack like that is currently possible for a non-peer to pull off, and is currently not fully defendable.

US and other military procurement folks have been asleep at the wheel on this for what, 4 years now? The proof is what Iran was able to do. How did not they see this coming? This should be a huge public scandal.

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#26

Post by tim333 » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 5:14 PM UTC

epolanski wrote: post #2

Both this event as well as the Iranian campaign expose the low stock piles that most NATO countries are facing. But it's also exposing the effectiveness of asymmetric warfare. A single patriot missile, a single one, costs around $ 4 million, and its the only weapon that may intercept missiles that cost 1.5 up to 40 times less. Even when taking the major Russian ballistic missiles like the Kh101, the Iskander and Kali…

Ukraine deal with the "50k Shahed drone is on course to hit your command center" stuff by having a lot of cheaper interceptors to take them out - some drones, some cheaper SAMs, some aircraft.

It was a bit of a mistake of the US not to use that stuff for Iran which the Ukrainians would have been delighted to supply.

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#27

Post by tim333 » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC

epolanski wrote: post #22

greedo wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

PAC-3 MSE can take down Iskanders. Not a very favorable exchange rate when you fire 2-3 per Iskander, but still doable. If NATO was fighting Russia, launch aircraft (and airbases) would be prime targets. Ukraine fights the way it does because of very limited funds and resources.

Not really, interception success rate fell from 37% to 7% as Iskanders got upgraded.

Software upgrades too - just make them fly a somewhat random path.

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#28

Post by tim333 » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 5:43 PM UTC

amelius wrote: post #4

epolanski wrote: post #2

Both this event as well as the Iranian campaign expose the low stock piles that most NATO countries are facing. But it's also exposing the effectiveness of asymmetric warfare. A single patriot missile, a single one, costs around $ 4 million, and its the only weapon that may intercept missiles that cost 1.5 up to 40 times less. Even when taking the major Russian ballistic missiles like the Kh101, the Iskander and Kali…

If defensive weapons don't work because too expensive, then the only way out seems to be M.A.D. which Ukraine can only attain if they join NATO.

You don't have to go to MAD, just retaliate on a similar level. Ukraine should have ballistics that can hit Moscow soon. There's also hitting the launchers and missile factories though I'm not sure Ukr has the ability to do so.

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#29

Post by [deleted] » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 5:47 PM UTC

mrec wrote: post #14

amelius wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a numbers game and I don't know if the numbers are in favor of Ukraine anymore, given this lack of defense weapons.

My point is that conventional strike can provide a meaningful deterrent, even without the NATO umbrella or a domestic nuclear capability. If Putin had known in 2022 what this utterly gratuitous war would end up costing Russia, there's no way he would have gone ahead with it.

[deleted]

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#30

Post by tim333 » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 6:45 PM UTC

burnt-resistor wrote: post #19

(Fedorov isn't coming back as defense chief.) ABMs are very slow to build, expensive, and doubtfully effective red herrings. PAC-3 manufacturing: regardless of having perfect, prioritized intellectual property sharing arrangements, it would still involve competing with limited quantities from monopoly critical suppliers and delay from deep levels of supply chain parts and assemblies vendors. It would be better to cat…

I'm not totally convinced it's all over for Fedorov. Zelensky may not be keen but the people, parliament and funders have a say too.