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2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

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Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#281

Post by crote »

docjay wrote: post #277
cortesoft wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The alternative is to have shortages. If there is demand for N chips at $X price, but you only have N/2 chips, then half the people aren't going to be able to buy them. The people who really need the chips, and would be willing to pay a lot more than $X for them, will be competing with people who are only willing to pay $X for them. You will end up getting scalping and shortages and hoarding. Since people know that t…

If demand outpaces supply then there’s a shortage no matter what you do. I don’t believe scalpers are an issue in B2B; these aren’t concert tickets being sold to the general public. It’s clear you grasp the economic theory as it’s taught, but my comment was meant for you to question it. If someone is hungry you can charge more for food. The market allows and encourages it. But don’t mistake that for “willingness” and…

> If demand outpaces supply then there’s a shortage no matter what you do.

Demand is elastic. If the price of potatoes rises to $1000 / kg most people will switch to using pasta or rice for their dinner instead. There might be a shortage of potatoes at $1 / kg, but not at $1000 / kg.

If my 7-year-old computer were to die tomorrow I would've normally replace the entire thing. It has had a good life, the newer generations of hardware are a decent bunch faster, and it would be nice to get some additional features. With current RAM prices? No way I can afford to upgrade to DDR5, I'll have to get a replacement AM4 motherboard / CPU to fix it.

> I don’t believe scalpers are an issue in B2B

They are called "speculators". DRAM is a commodity and is traded no different from, say, potatoes. It's why there are companies like DRAMeXchange. DRAM module assemblers like Kingston, G.Skill, and Corsair will buy chips from whoever gives them the best deal. Similarly, anyone assembling hardware using DRAM will have stockpiled it when the AI boom became noticeable - with some almost certainly selling it off now that it has become too valuable to use for cheaper products.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#284

Post by undersuit »

Melatonic wrote: post #276
undersuit wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Optane on a cheap adapter is superior in just this Swap application because the 16GB M.2 are very cheap, the 2x lanes aren't under utilizing your 4x motherboard M.2 slot when used with an adapter, and Optane has better write endurance and latency then even the newest flash.

Read more about it. Not sure on endurance but does it really do that well on latency ? Curious if you have any resources. Some boards have a lot of spare m2

https://cdn.multitronic.fi/media/a/3/mmo_41700684_1565162938...

I suggest using an 1x PCI-e adapter because putting a M10 in a M.2 slot is likely going to only have 2 of 4 PCI-e lanes in use. You have to figure out the tradeoff of using a Swap on your, now very expensive as well, Flash storage that may have flashier sequential read and write speeds but doesn't have the ability to sustain random read and write performance which is what a Swap is going to use the most.

There are faster Optane drives that use 4 PCI-e lanes or even PCI-e 4.0, but they get pricey quickly, so you should just buy ram then. The deal is the 16GB Optane on an unused 1x PCI-e slot.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#285

Post by tjwebbnorfolk »

docjay wrote: post #277
cortesoft wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The alternative is to have shortages. If there is demand for N chips at $X price, but you only have N/2 chips, then half the people aren't going to be able to buy them. The people who really need the chips, and would be willing to pay a lot more than $X for them, will be competing with people who are only willing to pay $X for them. You will end up getting scalping and shortages and hoarding. Since people know that t…

If demand outpaces supply then there’s a shortage no matter what you do. I don’t believe scalpers are an issue in B2B; these aren’t concert tickets being sold to the general public. It’s clear you grasp the economic theory as it’s taught, but my comment was meant for you to question it. If someone is hungry you can charge more for food. The market allows and encourages it. But don’t mistake that for “willingness” and…

When demand exceeds supply you have two options: make the people who value those goods the highest compete with each other to pay the natural market price for them, or have a lottery with price ceilings. Price ceilings create inefficiency, and they create black markets.

In a lottery, the goods are misallocated to a bunch of people who aren't getting the most value out of the goods, creating economic inefficiency. A bunch of GPUs would be sitting in warehouses waiting to be resold (either when the price goes up, or in the inevitable black market), or in my basement screwing around with them, instead of being deployed in a way that the most people can benefit from creating maximum economic value from their deployment.

Your gaming PC isn't as economically valuable as JPMorgan using AI for fraud detection, for example.

Moreover, if you are appointed god and force everyone to sell GPUs at one dollar just because you want cheap GPUs, then this is the last batch of GPUs that will ever be produced and you'll have a shortage until the end ot time.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#286

Post by [deleted] »

beloch wrote: post #60

AI companies would do well to realize that civil disobedience is a thing. Take what's currently happening to Flock cameras as an object lesson. People are so fed up with Flock that they're cutting their cameras down en masse, sometimes wiping them clean from entire jurisdictions. Tens of thousands of other people in those jurisdictions are cheering them on, even offering alibis for them before they've been caught. La…

[deleted]

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#287

Post by Melatonic »

undersuit wrote: post #284
Melatonic wrote: post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Read more about it. Not sure on endurance but does it really do that well on latency ? Curious if you have any resources. Some boards have a lot of spare m2

https://cdn.multitronic.fi/media/a/3/mmo_41700684_1565162938... I suggest using an 1x PCI-e adapter because putting a M10 in a M.2 slot is likely going to only have 2 of 4 PCI-e lanes in use. You have to figure out the tradeoff of using a Swap on your, now very expensive as well, Flash storage that may have flashier sequential read and write speeds but doesn't have the ability to sustain random read and write perform…

What about using one of those fancier enterprise Optane drives (that are also larger) either as a swap or - dedicated drive for writing or reading huge amounts of small files ? The Intel P5800x is the opposite of cheap but from tests I'm seeing the latency and performance is very impressive for some niche use cases

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#289

Post by milch »

pdimitar wrote: post #234
throwatdem12311 wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Motherboard. New motherboard…so new cpu socket (mine was Broadwell)…and new ram needed. GPU is mostly fine and can probably reuse that but it’s Vega so not the greatest I was due for an upgrade but the prices of everything is ridiculous. The thought of pc-of-Theseus’ing my busted ass PC is just sad. Thank god I bought a PS5 Pro before Sony started jacking up the prices. I remember when buying a $300 GPU was extravaga…

Why don't you just get a MB only for now? What mandates an entire new batch of hardware?

I've been in the same boat since it seems something about the memory controller on my gaming PC's MB is broken, but price wise it feels like it just doesn't make sense. I could get something from eBay relatively cheap but then I'd probably spend an hour disassembling and reassembling just to maybe learn that the eBay unit has some equivalent issue or is slightly broken in some other way. I could old new stock for outrageous prices. Right now I'd rather just wait until either an upgrade would be REALLY worth it or at least prices come down.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#290

Post by Krssst »

throwatdem12311 wrote: post #238
pdimitar wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why don't you just get a MB only for now? What mandates an entire new batch of hardware?

I’ve been pricing out my various options but the notion of replacing a 10 year old motherboard with another 10 year old motherboard is kinda lousy. The PC I replaced when I bought this one was such a huge improvement. My options basically boils down to fixing trash that’s falling apart or a sidegrade at best for the same price as what I bought a beast of a PC for 10 freaking years ago. Depressing.

Buying a cheap secondhand motherboard is still less lousy than losing access to a game collection. I did that with a 13 years old computer and it cost 50€.

I agree that the current situation sucks, but I don't think one can say it locks someone on your situation out of your game collection.

(edit: misremembered, $2000 is not the price of the game collection)

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