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Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

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Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#11

Post by epolanski »

consumer451 wrote: post #6
epolanski wrote: post #2

Both this event as well as the Iranian campaign expose the low stock piles that most NATO countries are facing. But it's also exposing the effectiveness of asymmetric warfare. A single patriot missile, a single one, costs around $ 4 million, and its the only weapon that may intercept missiles that cost 1.5 up to 40 times less. Even when taking the major Russian ballistic missiles like the Kh101, the Iskander and Kali…

> If a 50k Shahed drone is on course to hit your command center or expensive aircraft… I used to think like this as well, then I realized “how much do I value an apartment building full of people?” - which are often Russia’s targets.

Those are more likely to be misses than deliberate attacks. There's no value in striking apartment blocks void of military equipments.

You don't spend money to do so if you can hit more precious military or logistic or energy infrastructure.

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#12

Post by epolanski »

EA-3167 wrote: post #5
epolanski wrote: post #2

Both this event as well as the Iranian campaign expose the low stock piles that most NATO countries are facing. But it's also exposing the effectiveness of asymmetric warfare. A single patriot missile, a single one, costs around $ 4 million, and its the only weapon that may intercept missiles that cost 1.5 up to 40 times less. Even when taking the major Russian ballistic missiles like the Kh101, the Iskander and Kali…

All of this is predicated on the reality that 70%+ of Americans don't want to be in this war, none of our allies want any part of it either, and the person who started it is a coward who expected to get an easy win. Now we're stuck with said coward unwilling to take the loss and make a deal, but also unwilling to escalate and takes greater risks to use weapons like JDAM's that are in sufficient stock to level whole c…

Not sure what does it have to do with Patriot stock piling or the effectiveness of asymmetric warfare.

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#13

Post by garciansmith »

jemmyw wrote: post #9
EA-3167 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of this is predicated on the reality that 70%+ of Americans don't want to be in this war, none of our allies want any part of it either, and the person who started it is a coward who expected to get an easy win. Now we're stuck with said coward unwilling to take the loss and make a deal, but also unwilling to escalate and takes greater risks to use weapons like JDAM's that are in sufficient stock to level whole c…

I didn't really understand your comment. More than 50% of Americans poll as supporting Ukraine, with something like an even split between too much, too little, and enough, meaning sentiment is generally weighted that the US should be involved or do more. Polling in Europe is more supportive. But you used the word 'want'. I don't imagine anyone wants to be involved. Everyone who is wants the other side to stop fightin…

EA-3167 is referring to Iran, not Ukraine.

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#14

Post by mrec »

amelius wrote: post #10
mrec wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not the only way. Sending drones against Russia's oil industry and logistics centres is having a pretty spectacular effect too, and Russia's having no luck defending against those either.

It's a numbers game and I don't know if the numbers are in favor of Ukraine anymore, given this lack of defense weapons.

My point is that conventional strike can provide a meaningful deterrent, even without the NATO umbrella or a domestic nuclear capability. If Putin had known in 2022 what this utterly gratuitous war would end up costing Russia, there's no way he would have gone ahead with it.

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#15

Post by EA-3167 »

garciansmith wrote: post #13
jemmyw wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't really understand your comment. More than 50% of Americans poll as supporting Ukraine, with something like an even split between too much, too little, and enough, meaning sentiment is generally weighted that the US should be involved or do more. Polling in Europe is more supportive. But you used the word 'want'. I don't imagine anyone wants to be involved. Everyone who is wants the other side to stop fightin…

EA-3167 is referring to Iran, not Ukraine.

Thank you, that’s correct.

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#16

Post by greedo »

epolanski wrote: post #2

Both this event as well as the Iranian campaign expose the low stock piles that most NATO countries are facing. But it's also exposing the effectiveness of asymmetric warfare. A single patriot missile, a single one, costs around $ 4 million, and its the only weapon that may intercept missiles that cost 1.5 up to 40 times less. Even when taking the major Russian ballistic missiles like the Kh101, the Iskander and Kali…

PAC-3 MSE can take down Iskanders. Not a very favorable exchange rate when you fire 2-3 per Iskander, but still doable.

If NATO was fighting Russia, launch aircraft (and airbases) would be prime targets. Ukraine fights the way it does because of very limited funds and resources.

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#17

Post by consumer451 »

epolanski wrote: post #11
consumer451 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If a 50k Shahed drone is on course to hit your command center or expensive aircraft… I used to think like this as well, then I realized “how much do I value an apartment building full of people?” - which are often Russia’s targets.

Those are more likely to be misses than deliberate attacks. There's no value in striking apartment blocks void of military equipments. You don't spend money to do so if you can hit more precious military or logistic or energy infrastructure.

There are way too many residential buildings hit for it to be an accident, all the time.

It’s a part of Moscow’s strategy to weaken civilian resolve. They did the same thing in Chechnya.

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#18

Post by selivanovp »

amelius wrote: post #10
mrec wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not the only way. Sending drones against Russia's oil industry and logistics centres is having a pretty spectacular effect too, and Russia's having no luck defending against those either.

It's a numbers game and I don't know if the numbers are in favor of Ukraine anymore, given this lack of defense weapons.

Numbers have never been in Ukraine's favor. With provided funds and tech by EU and US to mass produce long range weapons Ukraine managed to shorten the gap somewhat, but they're still losing, and they're a "zombie" country that is still afloat just because tens of billions are pumped into their economy and military every year.

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#19

Post by burnt-resistor »

(Fedorov isn't coming back as defense chief.)

ABMs are very slow to build, expensive, and doubtfully effective red herrings. PAC-3 manufacturing: regardless of having perfect, prioritized intellectual property sharing arrangements, it would still involve competing with limited quantities from monopoly critical suppliers and delay from deep levels of supply chain parts and assemblies vendors.

It would be better to catch SSM launchers on roads, rails, and inland waterways and dismantle the supply chain that produces/imports them and their parts with long range kinetic sanctions. (Kill the archer and arrow maker, not the arrows.)

Incidentally, someone in Russia may have believed they had a surplus of S-400's because it was using them as SSMs in nightly strikes on civilians rather than as SAMs and ABMs even though its last reported manufacturing capacity was only 40 units/month.

SAM - Surface-to-Air Missile

SSM - Surface-to-Surface Missile

ABM - Anti-Ballistic Missile (Anti-SSM)

Re: Mykhailo Fedorov reveals struggle to secure Patriot missiles and Western support

#20

Post by amelius »

mrec wrote: post #14
amelius wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a numbers game and I don't know if the numbers are in favor of Ukraine anymore, given this lack of defense weapons.

My point is that conventional strike can provide a meaningful deterrent, even without the NATO umbrella or a domestic nuclear capability. If Putin had known in 2022 what this utterly gratuitous war would end up costing Russia, there's no way he would have gone ahead with it.

The problem is this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/30/us-firm-drone-...

If you can't defend yourself, then it is increasingly difficult to attack.

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