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U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

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Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#351

Post by rented_mule »

mjburgess wrote: post #144
astro1234 wrote: post #105

As a data scientist it is very frustrating to see a consistent lack of error bars on these numbers or any discussion about the magnitude of uncertainty around them by all news reports every time these numbers get released

If honest, the error bars would be so large as to make drawing conclusions from these numbers seem pointless. Certainly, both jobs growth and jobs loss are within the CI. What's actually being tracked by people using this data is the delta from previous years -- which, conditioning on the same collection methodology etc -- is more reliable. The actionable piece of info is sign(delta)

Something the best data scientist I ever worked with was adamant about... there is almost never an inherent "speed bump" at 0. If error bounds expand on both sides of 0, we have no idea if the true sign is positive or negative. There is no "directional" read in that case. There are some areas where 0 has a special meaning, but that's rare and the cause of that needs to be understood before assuming that's the case. Everywhere else, 0 is just another point on the number line.

> the error bars would be so large as to make drawing conclusions from these numbers seem pointless

That is often the case, and being truly data based requires acknowledging that. We can then act based on other data, or admit that we're falling back to intuition and abandoning data based decision making for now.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#354

Post by wat10000 »

mapontosevenths wrote: post #341
wat10000 wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a large number of people don't "believe" things in the same way that the typical commenter here would understand it. Your average rationalist techie would consider a "belief" to be some factual statement about the world, backed up with some justification, with some confidence level. "Tariffs help the economy" would mean some probabilities about likely outcomes for different actions, based on some kind of econ…

This statement seems to align with the world the way I've observed it to be, and I'd never considered it this way before. It really would explain a lot if true. So is the theory that they don't say it because they actually believe it, they say it because they want YOU to believe it? Or is it that they believe it just because they wish it were true?

It's more subtle than that, to the point that I have some trouble putting it into words.

It's a real belief, but it's a different kind of belief. A rationalist belief has structure behind it, even if only implied. There's a whole framework of, you believe X, what would it look like if X were true, or what would it look like if X were false? What's the basis for thinking that X true? How confident are you? What would change your mind? But for the kind of belief I'm talking about, none of that is there. It's not that it hasn't been done or that it's not sufficiently rigorous, but that it's just not even a consideration. It's not part of the concept of believing something.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#355

Post by maerF0x0 »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #145
maerF0x0 wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen on youtube how people said a major reason housing is a big employer and housing has not fallen in price is due to their industry's attitude and resistance to introducing technological advancements. in fairness also regulation makes it hard when it specificies the solutions not the parameters (just to illustrate the idea not an actual rule: you must have X thickness of PVC versus your pipe must withstand X p…

Demonstrating the waste of time that 99.9% of Youtube videos offer. Construction has seen tremendous technological advances, from materials to tools, even down to software that monitors workplace events. All of these have led to conditions where it is expected for an entire house to go from start to finish in 100 days. A house with very high standards of plumbing, electrical, hvac, insulation, and other essentials co…

And yet so much stick built instead of manufactured, for example.

And I agree that the standards have been rising such as better R-values, car charging, AC, cat5 etc.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#356

Post by lotsofpulp »

maerF0x0 wrote: post #355
lotsofpulp wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Demonstrating the waste of time that 99.9% of Youtube videos offer. Construction has seen tremendous technological advances, from materials to tools, even down to software that monitors workplace events. All of these have led to conditions where it is expected for an entire house to go from start to finish in 100 days. A house with very high standards of plumbing, electrical, hvac, insulation, and other essentials co…

And yet so much stick built instead of manufactured, for example. And I agree that the standards have been rising such as better R-values, car charging, AC, cat5 etc.

Because stick built is superior to manufactured for 95% of situations and buyers. There is a reason why it’s so ubiquitous. The US is blessed to have access to cheap sticks.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#358

Post by Varelion »

netrap wrote: post #112
Varelion wrote: post #108

Who actually believes these numbers?

weird dejavu because this exact comment was on the last one of these job lost updates i saw

When you line the government with yesmen,they will taylor or they'll get fired, so I would expect HN to catch on that fast

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#359

Post by litoE »

nunez wrote: post #170

> The BLS said employment contracted the most in “local government education,” which declined by 50,000 roles, likely reflecting teachers during summer break. This is not entirely accurate. AFAIK, teachers usually remain on payroll throughout the summer. This stat _might_ be talking about contractual teaching roles, like adjuncts or subs, but it's hard to say from that BLS category.

> teachers usually remain on payroll throughout the summer.

That is not exactly accurate. When I was teaching, my salary was for 9 months only. I was paid in 12 monthly installments to smooth out my income, but technically I was not on the University's payroll during the summer months. That allowed me to seek full-time employment elsewhere (e.g. consulting) during the summer which was not allowed during the other 9 months.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#360

Post by mapontosevenths »

wat10000 wrote: post #354
mapontosevenths wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This statement seems to align with the world the way I've observed it to be, and I'd never considered it this way before. It really would explain a lot if true. So is the theory that they don't say it because they actually believe it, they say it because they want YOU to believe it? Or is it that they believe it just because they wish it were true?

It's more subtle than that, to the point that I have some trouble putting it into words. It's a real belief, but it's a different kind of belief. A rationalist belief has structure behind it, even if only implied. There's a whole framework of, you believe X, what would it look like if X were true, or what would it look like if X were false? What's the basis for thinking that X true? How confident are you? What would…

I think I get it? A belief is something that some people do, to other it is something that was done to them.

I remember it being like that was I was a child and one day realizing that it didn't have to be, that I could decide for myself what I believed in. Maybe some folks never have that realization?

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