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U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

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Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#341

Post by mapontosevenths »

wat10000 wrote: post #280
mapontosevenths wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect that even his proponents knew better, they just didn't care as much about the economy as they did culture wars nonsense and religious woo-woo.

I think a large number of people don't "believe" things in the same way that the typical commenter here would understand it. Your average rationalist techie would consider a "belief" to be some factual statement about the world, backed up with some justification, with some confidence level. "Tariffs help the economy" would mean some probabilities about likely outcomes for different actions, based on some kind of econ…

This statement seems to align with the world the way I've observed it to be, and I'd never considered it this way before. It really would explain a lot if true.

So is the theory that they don't say it because they actually believe it, they say it because they want YOU to believe it? Or is it that they believe it just because they wish it were true?

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#342

Post by arcrevenant »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #56
ethagnawl wrote: post #35

And, as a result, the market is ... up?

Yeah, I'll never understand the disconnect between Wall Street and the mudslide of diarrhetic bad news that has been rolling in constantly.

Gross dude

That comment should be illegal

Send it back across the Diarrhio Grande

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#343

Post by parineum »

ploden wrote: post #324
parineum wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of the two parties, only one ever even says they want to reduce spending. Neither ever do.

The deficit fell dramatically 2009-2015.

But the debt rose

https://s.abcnews.com/images/US/NationalDebt_v02_DP_16843391...

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#344

Post by amanaplanacanal »

ericmay wrote: post #310
amanaplanacanal wrote: post #304

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't think those two things have any effect on the economy?

Sure they have an effect but are they economic policies? If you want to take the approach that everything is an economic policy I guess we could do that, but I think it's a bit limiting. I guess also, what's the goal of economic policy? Does your economy matter much if you can't defend it, for example? If you have no industrial base does that matter? Under sequential administrations all the way up and until at least…

Immigration is clearly economic policy. It was partially justified on immigrants taking American's jobs.

The war isn't strictly economic policy, but everybody could see it would have a bad effect on the economy, which is why everybody else was smart enough not to do it.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#345

Post by amanaplanacanal »

ericmay wrote: post #295
amanaplanacanal wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty sure the Democrats would not have done either the ridiculous tariffs or the stupid Iran war. They wouldn't have passed anything like the BBB. Nor would they have tried to scare all the immigrants out of the country.

> Pretty sure the Democrats would not have done either the ridiculous tariffs They may not have gone with that specific approach, but the direction was the same. Instead of tariffs the Biden Administration's BBB bill gave money to corporations instead. Two directionally aligned approaches there. The rest of the comments (immigration policy or Iran) are irrelevant to this specific topic IMO

Directional alignment but completely different policy. Trying to claim they are the same is nonsense.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#346

Post by nitwit005 »

parineum wrote: post #343
ploden wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The deficit fell dramatically 2009-2015.

But the debt rose https://s.abcnews.com/images/US/NationalDebt_v02_DP_16843391...

Technically yes, but you can clearly see the growth slow to essentially zero during part of the late Clinton years in that chart.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#347

Post by srghrhsr »

mjburgess wrote: post #260
hrhdhdh wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Estimating the number of jobs lost is very different than estimating the sign of a difference of a fixed "error-prone method for measuring jobs lost" The former is asking "are my weighing scales accurate?" the latter is, "do I look like i'm loosing weight?"

[flagged]

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#348

Post by ericmay »

amanaplanacanal wrote: post #344
ericmay wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure they have an effect but are they economic policies? If you want to take the approach that everything is an economic policy I guess we could do that, but I think it's a bit limiting. I guess also, what's the goal of economic policy? Does your economy matter much if you can't defend it, for example? If you have no industrial base does that matter? Under sequential administrations all the way up and until at least…

Immigration is clearly economic policy. It was partially justified on immigrants taking American's jobs. The war isn't strictly economic policy, but everybody could see it would have a bad effect on the economy, which is why everybody else was smart enough not to do it.

> Immigration is clearly economic policy.

Sure but it's not strictly an economic policy. If you want to just talk about the economics of immigration I'd be happy to discuss that. I think there are pros and cons to many different approaches.

> The war isn't strictly economic policy, but everybody could see it would have a bad effect on the economy, which is why everybody else was smart enough not to do it.

Similarly Europe and the United States could have been economically smart and unsanctioned Russian gas and let them take over Ukraine. Sometimes economic policy is trumped by other considerations.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#349

Post by andxor »

ai-x wrote: post #187
JKCalhoun wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I'll never understand the disconnect between Wall Street and the mudslide of diarrhetic bad news that has been rolling in constantly.

skill issue. Solved by having the correct model of the world and forces acting on it given (appropriately weighted) current context and your usual variance. It's usually people who don't understand the context or assign appropriate weights to events and allow randomness that complain about not understanding markets.

You're getting downvoted but you're exactly right

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#350

Post by xboxnolifes »

parineum wrote: post #343
ploden wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The deficit fell dramatically 2009-2015.

But the debt rose https://s.abcnews.com/images/US/NationalDebt_v02_DP_16843391...

Yes, that's what a deficit does until it becomes a surplus. Debt cannot go down until the deficit is gone.
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