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Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029

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101–110 of 173 posts

Re: Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029

#101
post #36

Keep building these bike lanes and 15-minute neighborhoods. So that people don't even think about having children. Make sure people have no personal space and no personal time. That's how we reduce the Earth's population!

15-minute neighborhoods with bike lanes are exactly the kinds of places good for raising kids in.

In theory. In practice, dense urban neighborhoods have very low birthrates, and always have. Cities are population sinks

Re: Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029

#102
post #75

[flagged]

Or maybe societies could instead make the prospect of having children less onerous? It's not an uncommon story in America that a couple will choose to stay unmarried when having children so that the mother can qualify for benefits like childcare (which, if you haven't had children yourself, is staggeringly expensive when it's available at all). To think that the solution here is to penalize women even more is insane.

This is the extremely marketable "solution". Easy to sell to voters. The problem is that it does not work whatsoever. There is no evidence anywhere that transfers to mothers increase birth rates, or that transfers to women increase pairing rates (the upstream problem of birth rates).

Re: Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029

#103

Our expanding economies and improving quality of life depend on young people and a growing population. So it brings up an interesting question. In 20 years, will countries start to compete for young people? Tax breaks, benefits, etc. Will some countries thrive while others die off completely? The proportion of young people will be a huge issue regarding military strength, innovation, etc. Could get very ugly.

That’s very idealistic opinion. The reality is that for example German government does everything for retirees and their votes. Young people as a minority are successfully ignored.

Re: Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029

#104

If anybody was curious, the states that already had this prior to 2020 are: Maine, Vermont, and Florida Since 2020: Delaware, Hawaii, Montana, New Hampshire, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia now also qualify. Montana is a bit of a surprise there... so is Oregon for me. Source: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/older-ad...

I'm from the west coast and oregon has always seemed to have large populations of retirees in the more rural areas. My grandparents considered moving there when I was young. Also seems that oregon has a large "self-selecting" population where folks move there from out-of-state

Re: Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029

#105
post #41

I think it’s time to bite the bullet and raise the retirement^W elder benefits eligibility age and peg it to life expectancy at birth minus 15 years or some structure like that. It’s fine that my generation will have to eat the loss - having paid for the past one but not benefiting as much from the coming ones. Some generation has to, and better us than them. As we get better at healthcare and life, we should expect…

We should establish UBI and universal health care, not tied to age, and then the concept of "retirement age" can go away.

I suppose we could pay everyone about $1.2k/mo and that would exhaust the entire current federal budget but that would eliminate the 60% or so of the federal budget dedicated to the aggregate of all social welfare programs. The tax increases required would be substantial to keep Medicare, Social Security, Health services, Education, and so on.

Without more productive capacity the extra $1.2k/mo would cause enormous inflation. Just a question of what the country is optimizing for, I suppose, but I think people would be unhappy with the result.

Re: Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029

#106

Sounds like the who age verification debate will just solve itself. Just wait until there aren't any more children and then we don't need to worry about protecting them.

You jest, but I'd think it really is the opposite. Hard to care too much for a child if you've got five spare ones.

Do you have children? Because I've never heard a parent think that way

Re: Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029

#107

Our expanding economies and improving quality of life depend on young people and a growing population. So it brings up an interesting question. In 20 years, will countries start to compete for young people? Tax breaks, benefits, etc. Will some countries thrive while others die off completely? The proportion of young people will be a huge issue regarding military strength, innovation, etc. Could get very ugly.

Yes, but the inverse implication of countries heavily competing is that young people will be severely restricted from leaving as well. An incredibly underrated future possibility is that it becomes much harder to get a passport.

Re: Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gettimg mixed signals. "Modest proposal" indicates satiricsl suggestion, but the words "this is going to be flagged to hell" indicates a serious proposal that is controversial. I might overthinking it, but some clarification either way would be nice.

To be completely honest with you, it's a bit of both. I realise that this idea is somewhat obnoxious, hence the gallows humour. At the same time, I genuinely don't think we have a way out of this that does not involve reforms we today would consider obnoxious.

A way out of what?

Re: Adults over 65 will outnumber children by 2029

#110
post #36

Keep building these bike lanes and 15-minute neighborhoods. So that people don't even think about having children. Make sure people have no personal space and no personal time. That's how we reduce the Earth's population!

15-minute neighborhoods with bike lanes are exactly the kinds of places good for raising kids in.

This is what the policy wonk idealists say, but the undeniable evidence going back hundreds of years is that dense cities are fertility shredders.
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