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U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

nbcnews.com

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Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#161

Post by jm4 »

renegade-otter wrote: post #114
astro1234 wrote: post #105

As a data scientist it is very frustrating to see a consistent lack of error bars on these numbers or any discussion about the magnitude of uncertainty around them by all news reports every time these numbers get released

The numbers are as good as they can get with hard manual work that goes into compiling them. The problem is that small businesses lag by 1-2 months reporting them, so the initial number being reported is almost always irrelevant, as it mostly applies to numbers coming out of larger corporations.

What makes you think it's small businesses? I would assume most businesses doing any reporting at all are using a payroll system. Mine handles the reporting automatically. The kinds of payroll systems used by small businesses can be set up in a day. If anything, small businesses that make even a small effort to stay on top of things have an easier time than big ones with complicated systems and processes.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#162

Post by jmalicki »

renegade-otter wrote: post #114
astro1234 wrote: post #105

As a data scientist it is very frustrating to see a consistent lack of error bars on these numbers or any discussion about the magnitude of uncertainty around them by all news reports every time these numbers get released

The numbers are as good as they can get with hard manual work that goes into compiling them. The problem is that small businesses lag by 1-2 months reporting them, so the initial number being reported is almost always irrelevant, as it mostly applies to numbers coming out of larger corporations.

That's true for the establishment survey, but the population survey, where they contact individuals, is what is actually used to calculate these numbers.

It is literally calling/writing 60,000 people and asking "are you employed? did you look for a job? Etc."

"How the government calculates unemployment" [0]

| Does anyone in this household have a business or a farm? | Last week, did you do any work for (either) pay (or profit)? | If the answer to question 1 is "yes" and the answer to question 2 is "no," the next question is: | Last week, did you do any unpaid work in the family business or farm? | For those who reply "no" to both questions 2 and 3, the next key questions used to determine employment status are: | Last week, (in addition to the business) did you have a job, either full or part time? Include any job from which you were temporarily absent. | Last week, were you on layoff from a job? | What was the main reason you were absent from work last week? | For those who respond "yes" to question 5 about being on layoff, the following questions are asked:

[0] https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#164

Post by win311fwg »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #56
ethagnawl wrote: post #35

And, as a result, the market is ... up?

Yeah, I'll never understand the disconnect between Wall Street and the mudslide of diarrhetic bad news that has been rolling in constantly.

For a selloff to happen, investors have to believe there is a better place for them to go. At worst, any bad news right now is making everything look equally bad, so there is no advantage to running away from Wall Street in particular.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#165

Post by jmalicki »

pgwhalen wrote: post #157
renegade-otter wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The numbers are as good as they can get with hard manual work that goes into compiling them. The problem is that small businesses lag by 1-2 months reporting them, so the initial number being reported is almost always irrelevant, as it mostly applies to numbers coming out of larger corporations.

I think you say “as good as they can get with [the] hard manual work that goes into compiling them” as a way to respect the challenge of the BLS and say they’re doing the best with their resources, but it’s worth pointing out they could be better with more resources.

DOGE hurt them pretty hard: "The Bureau of Labor Statistics posted a notice on Wednesday stating that it stopped collecting data in three not-so-small cities (Lincoln, Nebraska; Buffalo, New York; and Provo, Utah) and increased “imputations” for certain items"

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/05/economy/cpi-data-bls-reductio...

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#166

Post by biophysboy »

forlorn_mammoth wrote: post #17

What is also interesting is that the only sector thad added jobs was health care.

Based on their July 2026 report, there were tiny increases in several sectors. The big declines were in service providing, leisure and hospitality, and government (bc of a summer decline in local gov education).

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#168

Post by zuzululu »

paulryanrogers wrote: post #160
zuzululu wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

with inflation under control there is little incentive to raise rates and not enough to cut, consensus is that fed will hold in the meantime stock market is going to do another major boom cycle

Inflation of certain luxuries may be under control. That's cold comfort to households with two jobs per adult just to make rent+healthcare+food. > in the meantime stock market is going to do another major boom cycle Citation needed

no doubt there's been a rise in costs for the average joe but that's not what the fed targets

no citation needed, its common knowledge that rates drive stock market by acting as a gate to control money flowing between money market and stock market but to explain that is really not my responsibility, a very worrying sign that many Americans are seemingly not aware how much of sway the Federal Reserve play on the global economy.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#169

Post by bluGill »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #56
ethagnawl wrote: post #35

And, as a result, the market is ... up?

Yeah, I'll never understand the disconnect between Wall Street and the mudslide of diarrhetic bad news that has been rolling in constantly.

Bad news sells. There is always some bad news to print so you hear about it. That doesn't mean things are bad though.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#170

Post by nunez »

> The BLS said employment contracted the most in “local government education,” which declined by 50,000 roles, likely reflecting teachers during summer break.

This is not entirely accurate. AFAIK, teachers usually remain on payroll throughout the summer. This stat _might_ be talking about contractual teaching roles, like adjuncts or subs, but it's hard to say from that BLS category.

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