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Now there is no sign of actual AGI happening any time soonDo you genuinely hold this position, or do you not realize how far the goalposts have shifted?
In 2022, prominent AI critic Gary Marcus offered to bet $100,000 that we wouldn't have AGI by 2029. https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-fi... Because the definition of AGI is unclear, he defined that AGI would be achieved if an AI model could do THREE of the five following tasks:
- In 2029, AI will not be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on (what I called the comprehension challenge in The New Yorker, in 2014). Who are the characters? What are their conflicts and motivations? etc.
- In 2029, AI will not be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about plot, character, conflicts, motivations, etc. Key will be going beyond the literal text, as Davis and I explain in Rebooting AI.
- In 2029, AI will not be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen (extending Steve Wozniak’s cup of coffee benchmark).
- In 2029, AI will not be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines from natural language specification or by interactions with a non-expert user. [Gluing together code from existing libraries doesn’t count.]
- In 2029, AI will not be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature written in natural language and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for symbolic verification.
Today's AI models can do FOUR of these five.
Using 2022 goalposts, we already have AGI. We blew past these goalposts months ago, and nobody noticed.