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Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org

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Re: Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

#81

Post by bluGill »

Jtarii wrote: post #13
bobson381 wrote: post #4

30 year mortgage is founded partly on the idea that your house will be worth more in the future when you sell it. That you can lock in a lower price now. Number cannot always go up. We are at the top of the carbon pulse. Financialization has taken us far from the material baseline of the rock we are flying through space on. Debt will only get us so far. For this and many other reasons, why would you believe a house "…

Buying a house as an investment is so dumb. Its only an investment if you are renting it out to someone else, otherwise you are just gambling.

A house is a good hedge against inflation - my payments stay the same for 30 years of inflation, then go to zero (I still have taxes and maintenance so this is wrong - but it is close enough to true for discussion). Meanwhile rent is expected to go up with inflation. The longer you live in a house the better an investment it is.

Re: Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

#82

Post by petcat »

willmadden wrote: post #64
the_sleaze_ wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. The mortgage was to allow people to eventually OWN THE PROPERTY, not a leveraged investment. It's an interesting development that some (most?) regular people have forgotten that there is a 3rd option, not just rent or loan. You can actually OWN the thing and pay only property tax on it.

You don't really own it because of the property tax. Unless you live in Malta or a handful of other countries you are effectively renting from the state.

If paying property taxes is considered "renting from the state", then I'll be glad to pay the $600 a month in rent in order for the state and my county to maintain the roads, sewers, drains, school district and everything around me that allows me to enjoy my home and participate in society.

Re: Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

#83

Post by greenie_beans »

linkregister wrote: post #14
129487 wrote: post #8

Because you cannot pay market prices if you leave your rent controlled apartment. Once you are out, you never get one again. Apparently that is beyond the high and mighty Federal Reserve employees who wrote this speculation. The housing market needs to be socialized.

A socialized housing market replaces exorbitant prices with a lottery; public-subsidized housing in Stockholm has a waiting list of years. The way to stabilize the demand curve is to increase to supply.

you are correct that we need to increase supply, and socialized housing creates more supply. great idea

Re: Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

#84

Post by lcnPylGDnU4H9OF »

mindcandy wrote: post #73

Maybe my feed is biased. But, I’ve been seeing good arguments lately that “The rent is too damned high!” is largely a problem created by voters. And, I don’t know how we’re going to fix that. Ex: https://youtu.be/yoT76zITRx8 TLDR: 60% of both left and right wing voters like rent control. 98% of economists oppose it. Even liberal lefty economists. Even though they support price controls elsewhere like utility monopoli…

> It’s part of a larger effect where people measurably bias their voting against policies that sound like they will benefit rich people.

Blaming this on voters gives up the propagandists' game. A statement like "we'll make sure more houses are built to lower housing costs" does not sound like "we'll let business owners do business they otherwise wouldn't be allowed to do", even if they happen to describe the same policy.

Re: Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

#85

Post by louthy »

inigyou wrote: post #56
louthy wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2026 -> 2056 sure won't be. You have evidence from the future?

Do you? Where's your evidence global temperatures won't plummet 20 degrees tomorrow and reverse climate change? Past observations inform future predictions.

I don’t have that information, but I’m also not claiming I do. The GP is claiming “1990 -> 2020 was an okay 30 year period, 2026 -> 2056 sure won't be.”

The fact that there was Black Wednesday, 9/11, the dot com crash, the Iraq War, a once in a century global financial crisis, Brexit, and a global pandemic… suggests it wasn’t an “ok period” for markets. Yet, somehow, over the period of a mortgage, they all went up.

The idea that humans won’t adapt to whatever happens in the next 30 years is ludicrous. There will be short term market instability, just like the events I noted from the previous 30 years, but planning for the apocalypse is mind numbingly stupid.

If the apocalypse happens, everyone is in the same boat. If it doesn’t and you didn’t get on the housing ladder early, well, you’ll probably be buying a more expensive house in the future.

I’m saying this as someone who waited far too long to get on the ladder when I saw how rapidly prices were ascending in the 2000s (leading up the the GFC). I used the exact language lots of people in this thread are using about prices coming down eventually. But I was wrong.

Post the crash I couldn’t buy because deposit demands doubled. It took me out of the market for a long time. Ultimately costing me more when I did buy.

The future always seems risky, it’s the nature of the beast.

Re: Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

#86

Post by inigyou »

louthy wrote: post #85
inigyou wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you? Where's your evidence global temperatures won't plummet 20 degrees tomorrow and reverse climate change? Past observations inform future predictions.

I don’t have that information, but I’m also not claiming I do. The GP is claiming “1990 -> 2020 was an okay 30 year period, 2026 -> 2056 sure won't be.” The fact that there was Black Wednesday, 9/11, the dot com crash, the Iraq War, a once in a century global financial crisis, Brexit, and a global pandemic… suggests it wasn’t an “ok period” for markets. Yet, somehow, over the period of a mortgage, they all went up. T…

If your bar for "ok" is "not literal human extinction" then yeah, it'll probably be ok.

Re: Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

#87

Post by gruez »

bobson381 wrote: post #4

30 year mortgage is founded partly on the idea that your house will be worth more in the future when you sell it. That you can lock in a lower price now. Number cannot always go up. We are at the top of the carbon pulse. Financialization has taken us far from the material baseline of the rock we are flying through space on. Debt will only get us so far. For this and many other reasons, why would you believe a house "…

>Number cannot always go up. We are at the top of the carbon pulse. Financialization has taken us far from the material baseline of the rock we are flying through space on. Debt will only get us so far.

Why can't it? GDP per capita has been steadily marching up since the dawn of industrialization. You mention carbon but most developed countries have decoupled carbon emissions from their economic growth.

https://ourworldindata.org/co2-gdp-decoupling

Re: Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

#88

Post by [deleted] »

inigyou wrote: post #86
louthy wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t have that information, but I’m also not claiming I do. The GP is claiming “1990 -> 2020 was an okay 30 year period, 2026 -> 2056 sure won't be.” The fact that there was Black Wednesday, 9/11, the dot com crash, the Iraq War, a once in a century global financial crisis, Brexit, and a global pandemic… suggests it wasn’t an “ok period” for markets. Yet, somehow, over the period of a mortgage, they all went up. T…

If your bar for "ok" is "not literal human extinction" then yeah, it'll probably be ok.

[deleted]

Re: Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

#89

Post by [deleted] »

mindcandy wrote: post #73

Maybe my feed is biased. But, I’ve been seeing good arguments lately that “The rent is too damned high!” is largely a problem created by voters. And, I don’t know how we’re going to fix that. Ex: https://youtu.be/yoT76zITRx8 TLDR: 60% of both left and right wing voters like rent control. 98% of economists oppose it. Even liberal lefty economists. Even though they support price controls elsewhere like utility monopoli…

[deleted]

Re: Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

#90

Post by [deleted] »

louthy wrote: post #85
inigyou wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you? Where's your evidence global temperatures won't plummet 20 degrees tomorrow and reverse climate change? Past observations inform future predictions.

I don’t have that information, but I’m also not claiming I do. The GP is claiming “1990 -> 2020 was an okay 30 year period, 2026 -> 2056 sure won't be.” The fact that there was Black Wednesday, 9/11, the dot com crash, the Iraq War, a once in a century global financial crisis, Brexit, and a global pandemic… suggests it wasn’t an “ok period” for markets. Yet, somehow, over the period of a mortgage, they all went up. T…

[deleted]
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