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Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org

51–60 of 114 posts

Re: Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

#51

30 year mortgage is founded partly on the idea that your house will be worth more in the future when you sell it. That you can lock in a lower price now. Number cannot always go up. We are at the top of the carbon pulse. Financialization has taken us far from the material baseline of the rock we are flying through space on. Debt will only get us so far. For this and many other reasons, why would you believe a house "…

> 30 year mortgage is founded partly on the idea that your house will be worth more in the future when you sell it.

Another meaningful reason is that it is a hedge against inflation. You pay a fixed amount for housing for 360 months, rather than having to adjust rental payments that will tend to go up over that time frame.

Re: Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

#52
So I'm Gen-X. Statistically speaking, I have more yesterdays than tomorrows. I can't even begin to describe how much of a dystopian hellscape the world has become and is becoming. Many my age describe the 1990s as the last good decade.

I lived in a 2 bedroom apartment in the 1990s for $200/month 3 miles from the city center. All my other expenses were less than another $200/month. The median house price was less than $80k. College graduate positions typically paid ~$30k but that was OK. This was pre-9/11 so all those old TV shows and movies you saw of people meeting people at the airport gate were very real. I've seen younger people think this was just a trope, like the 30 seconds the trace a call bit. No, that was real. Friends of a friend lived in Iowa and split a 4 bedroom house for $180/month. Not each, total.

For younger millenials and Gen-Z, I honestly wish you could've experienced this world, for no other reason than to see that things weren't always this way and don't have to be this way.

There's an old episode of the Cosby Show that had the father (Bill Cosby) teaching his son, Theo, about finances. It's funny watching it back now because it has the line "an apartment in Manhattan is going to cost you $400" and I remember thinking how expensive that sounded at the time.

The absolute worst thing that has happened is how hoarding housing has become a retirement plan. It's simply stealing from the next generation and it's absolutely strangling the economy. Society is fraying at the edges. For anyone interested, there's been academic work on this that falls under the label of "the housing theory of everything" eg [1].

But what I hate most is how cruel, selfish and stupid everybody seems to be getting, in part fuelled by increasing desperation to stay above the rising tide just a little bit longer. And the ultra-wealthy constantly throw gas on this fire and torch the planet for what? So they can have $200 billion instead of $100 billion? What good does that do you if there's nothing left? But what's crazy is that a third of the population will defend Jeff Bezos in this equation.

What you see in a lot of economic indicators (such as those posted here) can be read as people incradsingly see themselves as having no future. Continued consumer spending is not a sign of a healthy economy or optimism anymore. It's a sign of fatalism.

The entire thing is honestly deeply depressing.

[1]: https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-housing-theory-of-every...

Re: Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

#53

30 year mortgage is founded partly on the idea that your house will be worth more in the future when you sell it. That you can lock in a lower price now. Number cannot always go up. We are at the top of the carbon pulse. Financialization has taken us far from the material baseline of the rock we are flying through space on. Debt will only get us so far. For this and many other reasons, why would you believe a house "…

Inflation is more probable than deflation: Meaning, over 30 years, we're more likely to hit a period of inflation where the value of your house (in dollars) will go up even though the real value (in your earning potential) might stay the same.

But, if we hit deflation and a lot of people need to default... Well then we're all in the same boat anyway.

Re: Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

#54
Housing values skyrocketed due to low interest rates. The prices are sticky and won't correct just because mortgage rates have gone up. That means no one can move. What we need is a large number of small houses (or owner owned multitenants) and a population willing to move into them.

Re: Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

#55
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Along the same lines, you are buying a place. A place that you own and can do whatever you like with. I spent twenty years renting and twenty years of feeling like you can’t hang a picture on the wall, paint a room, upgrade an appliance, or really do anything to improve your surroundings, tends to get tiring.

Why can't you hang a picture on the wall? Fixing holes in drywall is super trivial, a good life skill to learn.

Yes; but matching the paint color? and matching it to the wear of sun/fade of the surrounding area? That's not nearly as straightforward.

Re: Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

#56
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree here. But I'm a doomer/collapsenik - so, the same future coming for "retirement" is the same future coming for "house always appreciates in value". Maybe 1990 -> 2020 was an okay 30 year period, 2026 -> 2056 sure won't be.

> 2026 -> 2056 sure won't be. You have evidence from the future?

Do you?

Where's your evidence global temperatures won't plummet 20 degrees tomorrow and reverse climate change?

Past observations inform future predictions.

Re: Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

#58

It’s getting prohibitively expensive. Before brokers fees were banned in Boston, a $2,000/mo apartment could have cost you $8000 just to move in . That’s for first, last, security and brokers fee. That’s a worst case scenario but even just first and last months rent is $4000. It’s getting outrageous.

Way back when I started my career - I almost COULDN'T take a good job in Boston, because I couldn't figure out how I could literally live there long enough to get my first few paychecks to pay for my rent. I decided that I'd just go into credit card debt and live in the crappiest hotel that I could find until I had enough money to pay the first/last/security deposit. Luckily, I found some shady landlord on Craigslist…

Reminds me when I moved to boston for a job as a young grad. Found a room available for rent on craigslist for $400 in a 2 floor apartment. Half way through living there, someone bought the vacant apartment downstairs and turns out the room I was staying in was owned by the downstairs people so I had to change rooms.

I think there's always a way to make these moves work. You just need to take a risk and be ready to suffer.

Re: Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

#59
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why can't you hang a picture on the wall? Fixing holes in drywall is super trivial, a good life skill to learn.

Is there a law saying your landlord has to accept the repair?

In most jurisdictions, what you can take out of a deposit is legislated.

And it's really not that hard to make an unnoticeable drywall repair.

Re: Why Do Fewer Renters Expect to Move?

#60
post #8

Because you cannot pay market prices if you leave your rent controlled apartment. Once you are out, you never get one again. Apparently that is beyond the high and mighty Federal Reserve employees who wrote this speculation. The housing market needs to be socialized.

A socialized housing market replaces exorbitant prices with a lottery; public-subsidized housing in Stockholm has a waiting list of years. The way to stabilize the demand curve is to increase to supply.

Sounds like it also puts the incentives in the right place. Why don't you keep voting out the government until it builds enough houses?
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