Earlier quoted context omitted.
Honest question: What _would_ convince you that we are not heading towards a singularity? Like, is this belief falsifiable? (Secondary question: what do you mean with singularity?) As an offering of me engaging in good faith, a controversial opinion of mine: I legit think arpanet going online and starting the networking all of humanity into a massive coupled complex system fits the definition of singularity of "the m…
For falsification, I would take a year in which we don’t see an absolute sea change in capability. The last twelve months were not that, in my opinion, nor were the twelve before it. Hell, I’d even throw in “a year in which capabilities obviously improve but at a cost consumers can’t afford”. “What LLMs can’t do, only humans can” feels like a God of the Gaps situation: people have to keep moving the goal posts becaus…
I would actually expect the sea changes as you describe it in your first criteria to continue with 1) vision, audio and video natively integrated 2) continued scaling of e2e rlvf for workflows with large scale labeling efforts 3) ASICs and widescale deployment of diffusion models leading to speed ups
But as of right now, I still expect these models to need humans to prune the output to the gold and set up the harness right for both the novel bits, and for the boilerplate to be cohesive with the global intent.
Which is of course an amazing potential boost in productivity, but still a sigmoid flattening.
As for your second criteria that includes cost, I think we might every well see this coming soon, but it's difficult to estimate with the efficiency gains still possible.
Thanks for engaging:-)