Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes • Hacker News Board

Re: Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes

#21

Post by shaewest » Thu, Aug 06, 2026, 1:44 AM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #18

OneDeuxTriSeiGo wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not really the argument they are making I believe. The issue is if you suddenly cut back oil countries pivot to bringing coal back because it's the fastest to scale up. Some places may scale up natural gas but unless a regional already has a lot of LNG infrastructure in place, a sudden drop in oil means bringing back coal. And coal is of course far worse than oil. Gradual sustained economic pressure will push…

Asia is cancelling LNG plans for renewables, and many markets have seen EV sales explode. Coal plants are more expensive than new renewables and batteries, existing generators may run longer, but aren’t going to be built in any material amount. China, Europe, and the US can build ~25-30M EVs per year with existing manufacturing capacity, as of this comment. That is 1/4th of global annual light vehicle sales. We can d…

I feel as if you missed their point. Their point from my understanding is, coal might be more expensive than new renewables/batteries, but it's significantly quicker to get up and running so if you have a choice between quick coal and nothing, coal will be chosen.

Re: Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes

#22

Post by toomuchtodo » Thu, Aug 06, 2026, 1:45 AM UTC

shaewest wrote: post #21

toomuchtodo wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Asia is cancelling LNG plans for renewables, and many markets have seen EV sales explode. Coal plants are more expensive than new renewables and batteries, existing generators may run longer, but aren’t going to be built in any material amount. China, Europe, and the US can build ~25-30M EVs per year with existing manufacturing capacity, as of this comment. That is 1/4th of global annual light vehicle sales. We can d…

I feel as if you missed their point. Their point from my understanding is, coal might be more expensive than new renewables/batteries, but it's significantly quicker to get up and running so if you have a choice between quick coal and nothing, coal will be chosen.

I am not missing the point. You can deploy hundreds of megawatts of solar and batteries providing firm generation in 12-18 months. You cannot build a coal generator that quickly (usually takes 2-5 years). If you can turn on or up an existing coal generator, yes, faster. If you must build it from scratch, no, slower. Solar and batteries are not only the cheapest form of new generation, they are also the fastest to deploy.

Citations:

Economics of coal versus renewables in Southeast Asia’s energy crisis - https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/coal-vs-renewables-a... - April 8th, 2026

Key points:

* Since the war in Iran began in February 2026, a surge in oil and gas prices has triggered gas-to-coal switching in Southeast Asia, pushing Asia’s coal benchmark nearly 20% above the pre-war price levels and highlighting the links between the coal, gas and oil markets.

* Gas-to-coal switching also pushed coal prices up after the 2022 gas crisis, when Asia’s coal benchmark surged to a record USD 443 per tonne in September 2023.

* Renewables sit apart from the price volatility of coal, oil and gas, as they do not require ongoing fuel inputs. In 2024, solar was already cheaper than coal in 7 of the 10 member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), according to LCOE data.

* The current gas crisis is already causing a decline in LNG demand across ASEAN countries. New ZCA analysis shows that were ASEAN to replace its planned 45 GW gas expansion with coal, costs would rise; in contrast, we found the Association could save USD 4 billion if gas expansion plans were instead replaced with solar and storage solutions by 2030.

* Even in countries with large coal reserves and coal subsidies, including China, renewables are already meeting a significant share of new electricity demand.

Coal Power Is Replaced by Renewables, Batteries, and Modern Electronics - https://www.renewable-ei.org/en/activities/column/REupdate/2... - September 18th, 2025

Re: Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes

#23

Post by krapp » Thu, Aug 06, 2026, 1:49 AM UTC

cyanydeez wrote: post #8

megamike wrote: post #5

question: When does all this hit the fan? Been reading for months that gas will rise to astronomical prices. When? answer: it depends heavily on China. If China were to jump into the global oil market with both feet, prices would shoot upwards. To date they have largely stayed on the sidelines.They have huge amounts of oil in storage. Their behavior so far has been the big surprise. They have been providing a pressur…

when the rich people stop talking to their LLMs and realize their hand servants have access to guns.

They know that. And they know that Americans won't do a damn thing with those guns except shoot one another.

Re: Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes

#24

Post by krapp » Thu, Aug 06, 2026, 1:51 AM UTC

jdlshore wrote: post #19

relug wrote: post #2

interesting why usa wants to keep escalating, muat be some strat behind it maybe to induce strategical global recession or try and slow down china or something else

It’s Trump, not the USA, and he seems to be ruled by passions rather than logic. Mostly, his goals seem to be to seek wealth and adoration by any means necessary. Now that he’s in it, there’s no way out, and particularly no way out that doesn’t make him look like an even bigger fool. So he’ll stay in it until things get so bad he has no other choice. But that won’t stop him from lying about progress and enriching him…

The American right has wanted war in Iran for decades, it was added to the "Axis of Evil" for that reason. Plenty of Americans support war with Iran in concept at least.

It's true that Trump is deranged and this war is driven partly by ego and partly by the Christian dominionist Department of War's slavish obedience to Israel and fetish for holy war.

But let's be real - gross negligence and incompetence aside war with Iran was always going to happen, somehow, under some pretext.

Re: Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes

#25

Post by triceratops » Thu, Aug 06, 2026, 1:55 AM UTC

shaewest wrote: post #21

toomuchtodo wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Asia is cancelling LNG plans for renewables, and many markets have seen EV sales explode. Coal plants are more expensive than new renewables and batteries, existing generators may run longer, but aren’t going to be built in any material amount. China, Europe, and the US can build ~25-30M EVs per year with existing manufacturing capacity, as of this comment. That is 1/4th of global annual light vehicle sales. We can d…

I feel as if you missed their point. Their point from my understanding is, coal might be more expensive than new renewables/batteries, but it's significantly quicker to get up and running so if you have a choice between quick coal and nothing, coal will be chosen.

> coal might be more expensive than new renewables/batteries, but it's significantly quicker to get up and running

How so? I can have a crew out installing panels tomorrow.

Re: Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes

#26

Post by aprilthird2021 » Thu, Aug 06, 2026, 2:05 AM UTC

fragmede wrote: post #13

megamike wrote: post #5

question: When does all this hit the fan? Been reading for months that gas will rise to astronomical prices. When? answer: it depends heavily on China. If China were to jump into the global oil market with both feet, prices would shoot upwards. To date they have largely stayed on the sidelines.They have huge amounts of oil in storage. Their behavior so far has been the big surprise. They have been providing a pressur…

I wouldn't call what they're doing "staying on the sidelines". It's a very big thing they're doing to stop global oil prices from shooting up by using up their stockpile for as long as they can. As to why, it's just the... I dunno, Chinese? thing to do. Quietly fix someone else's fuckup and not seek glory. Whatever you want to attribute it to, it's an ethos and makes total sense to some, because things are gonna get…

It is to their benefit in several ways:

They can use this ability to keep oil prices down to sort of back up their strategic goals. They could block a strait themselves while taking Taiwan. They could open the stores for concessions in other ways. They can also use this current Iran War to study how the US handles economic problems like oil-inflation. By having their finger on the scale they can push and pull and see how the US reacts in a war scenario.

Re: Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes

#27

Post by aprilthird2021 » Thu, Aug 06, 2026, 2:08 AM UTC

krapp wrote: post #24

jdlshore wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s Trump, not the USA, and he seems to be ruled by passions rather than logic. Mostly, his goals seem to be to seek wealth and adoration by any means necessary. Now that he’s in it, there’s no way out, and particularly no way out that doesn’t make him look like an even bigger fool. So he’ll stay in it until things get so bad he has no other choice. But that won’t stop him from lying about progress and enriching him…

The American right has wanted war in Iran for decades, it was added to the "Axis of Evil" for that reason. Plenty of Americans support war with Iran in concept at least. It's true that Trump is deranged and this war is driven partly by ego and partly by the Christian dominionist Department of War's slavish obedience to Israel and fetish for holy war. But let's be real - gross negligence and incompetence aside war wit…

> But let's be real - gross negligence and incompetence aside war with Iran was always going to happen, somehow, under some pretext.

And they prepared for it for a long time. And that preparation has paid off for them. We seem to not have prepared for it in the same way.

Re: Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes

#28

Post by aaron695 » Thu, Aug 06, 2026, 2:22 AM UTC

megamike wrote: post #5

question: When does all this hit the fan? Been reading for months that gas will rise to astronomical prices. When? answer: it depends heavily on China. If China were to jump into the global oil market with both feet, prices would shoot upwards. To date they have largely stayed on the sidelines.They have huge amounts of oil in storage. Their behavior so far has been the big surprise. They have been providing a pressur…

[dead]

Re: Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes

#29

Post by krapp » Thu, Aug 06, 2026, 2:24 AM UTC

aprilthird2021 wrote: post #27

krapp wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The American right has wanted war in Iran for decades, it was added to the "Axis of Evil" for that reason. Plenty of Americans support war with Iran in concept at least. It's true that Trump is deranged and this war is driven partly by ego and partly by the Christian dominionist Department of War's slavish obedience to Israel and fetish for holy war. But let's be real - gross negligence and incompetence aside war wit…

> But let's be real - gross negligence and incompetence aside war with Iran was always going to happen, somehow, under some pretext. And they prepared for it for a long time. And that preparation has paid off for them. We seem to not have prepared for it in the same way.

I suppose when you live under the constant threat of American imperialism, and when the US has already ginned up a revolution in your country, you have to be prepared.

And I suppose when you're the world's last superpower you start believing your own hype and assume you're invincible.

Re: Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes

#30

Post by HDBaseT » Thu, Aug 06, 2026, 3:04 AM UTC

toomuchtodo wrote: post #22

shaewest wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel as if you missed their point. Their point from my understanding is, coal might be more expensive than new renewables/batteries, but it's significantly quicker to get up and running so if you have a choice between quick coal and nothing, coal will be chosen.

I am not missing the point. You can deploy hundreds of megawatts of solar and batteries providing firm generation in 12-18 months. You cannot build a coal generator that quickly (usually takes 2-5 years). If you can turn on or up an existing coal generator, yes, faster. If you must build it from scratch, no, slower. Solar and batteries are not only the cheapest form of new generation, they are also the fastest to dep…

You can deploy solar and batteries rapidly, Australia is doing it.

Australia has the highest number of solar panels per capita in the world. Batteries are following suit with government subsidies. Yet, Australia has some of the highest energy prices in the world, its not a fool proof solution.

My comment wasn't even really about coal, it was about oil (and fuel). I'm talking about transport (even public transport) but planes & massive tankers are the big consumers. The original point is simply we cannot just stop ships.

When ships stopped due to the routes being blocked, we pushed ever closer to a recession and people starved and died because they were denied critical produces, equipment, food and medicines all over the world. Not to mention cost of living. This is what I mean by we "cannot afford" to not use oil.

We cannot afford for the routes to be shut, we cannot ban boats, cars, planes without major economic downturn.