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Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes

reuters.com

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Re: Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes

#11

Post by [deleted] »

thraway3837 wrote: post #10
relug wrote: post #2

interesting why usa wants to keep escalating, muat be some strat behind it maybe to induce strategical global recession or try and slow down china or something else

Military–industrial complex and Israel. The Iraq war lasted nearly a decade. Afghanistan 2 decades. And the US accomplished nothing. They made things worse, I don't need to go into details because that is an easy lookup. That's ultimately the purpose of this war. Israel wants us to fight Iran because "Iran was close to making a nuke", which is an excuse they have been using for nearly 30 years. Have you seen how much…

[deleted]

Re: Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes

#12

Post by DANmode »

relug wrote: post #2

interesting why usa wants to keep escalating, muat be some strat behind it maybe to induce strategical global recession or try and slow down china or something else

Solar-and-nuclear based energy sovereignty, is the most charitable interpretation I’ve developed.

Re: Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes

#13

Post by fragmede »

megamike wrote: post #5

question: When does all this hit the fan? Been reading for months that gas will rise to astronomical prices. When? answer: it depends heavily on China. If China were to jump into the global oil market with both feet, prices would shoot upwards. To date they have largely stayed on the sidelines.They have huge amounts of oil in storage. Their behavior so far has been the big surprise. They have been providing a pressur…

I wouldn't call what they're doing "staying on the sidelines". It's a very big thing they're doing to stop global oil prices from shooting up by using up their stockpile for as long as they can. As to why, it's just the... I dunno, Chinese? thing to do. Quietly fix someone else's fuckup and not seek glory. Whatever you want to attribute it to, it's an ethos and makes total sense to some, because things are gonna get fuuuuuucked if gas prices go to the moon.

Re: Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes

#14

Post by toomuchtodo »

fragmede wrote: post #13
megamike wrote: post #5

question: When does all this hit the fan? Been reading for months that gas will rise to astronomical prices. When? answer: it depends heavily on China. If China were to jump into the global oil market with both feet, prices would shoot upwards. To date they have largely stayed on the sidelines.They have huge amounts of oil in storage. Their behavior so far has been the big surprise. They have been providing a pressur…

I wouldn't call what they're doing "staying on the sidelines". It's a very big thing they're doing to stop global oil prices from shooting up by using up their stockpile for as long as they can. As to why, it's just the... I dunno, Chinese? thing to do. Quietly fix someone else's fuckup and not seek glory. Whatever you want to attribute it to, it's an ethos and makes total sense to some, because things are gonna get…

China’s economy depends on exporting to the world, as it will never have enough domestic demand to meet domestic supply. If the global economy crashes from an oil price shock, China goes down with it.

Re: Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes

#15

Post by fragmede »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #14
fragmede wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't call what they're doing "staying on the sidelines". It's a very big thing they're doing to stop global oil prices from shooting up by using up their stockpile for as long as they can. As to why, it's just the... I dunno, Chinese? thing to do. Quietly fix someone else's fuckup and not seek glory. Whatever you want to attribute it to, it's an ethos and makes total sense to some, because things are gonna get…

China’s economy depends on exporting to the world, as it will never have enough domestic demand to meet domestic supply. If the global economy crashes from an oil price shock, China goes down with it.

Power is better than money though. China is communist in name only now, but they could extract huge concessions out of the rest of the world right now if they wanted to.

Re: Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes

#16

Post by toomuchtodo »

fragmede wrote: post #15
toomuchtodo wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China’s economy depends on exporting to the world, as it will never have enough domestic demand to meet domestic supply. If the global economy crashes from an oil price shock, China goes down with it.

Power is better than money though. China is communist in name only now, but they could extract huge concessions out of the rest of the world right now if they wanted to.

They could, but they’ll wait, they’re not ready yet. Until then, they’ll continue to electrify their economy, build out domestic energy supply, rebuild their oil inventories from Russia and Iran when able (at below market prices, dominated in yuan, avoiding dollar systems and sanctions) and prepare to take Taiwan as the US continues to weaken itself.

If Taiwan toasts TSMC when that happens, well, that’s part of what China is rapidly building out their domestic chip industry. China will then have a monopoly on that chip production besides what can be produced in the US and Europe, and have achieved reunification. And who is going to stop them? Nobody, based on the evidence and current trajectories.

Re: Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes

#17

Post by OneDeuxTriSeiGo »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #9
HDBaseT wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't afford to not keep burning oil.

We can. It’ll be hard, but sometimes you gotta buck up and do hard things instead of being lazy. We won’t do it unless we’re forced to, business as usual is simply too cozy for decision makers, politically, in capital markets, and at multinationals making decisions. Wealthy and powerful people want to remain wealthy and powerful, a tale as old as time. 2-3C means potentially >2-4 billion excess deaths over the next ~…

That's not really the argument they are making I believe. The issue is if you suddenly cut back oil countries pivot to bringing coal back because it's the fastest to scale up.

Some places may scale up natural gas but unless a regional already has a lot of LNG infrastructure in place, a sudden drop in oil means bringing back coal.

And coal is of course far worse than oil.

Gradual sustained economic pressure will push a move to cleaner alternatives but a sudden shock leaves countries with exactly one option: bring back coal so the lights and heat/AC stay on.

Re: Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes

#18

Post by toomuchtodo »

OneDeuxTriSeiGo wrote: post #17
toomuchtodo wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can. It’ll be hard, but sometimes you gotta buck up and do hard things instead of being lazy. We won’t do it unless we’re forced to, business as usual is simply too cozy for decision makers, politically, in capital markets, and at multinationals making decisions. Wealthy and powerful people want to remain wealthy and powerful, a tale as old as time. 2-3C means potentially >2-4 billion excess deaths over the next ~…

That's not really the argument they are making I believe. The issue is if you suddenly cut back oil countries pivot to bringing coal back because it's the fastest to scale up. Some places may scale up natural gas but unless a regional already has a lot of LNG infrastructure in place, a sudden drop in oil means bringing back coal. And coal is of course far worse than oil. Gradual sustained economic pressure will push…

Asia is cancelling LNG plans for renewables, and many markets have seen EV sales explode. Coal plants are more expensive than new renewables and batteries, existing generators may run longer, but aren’t going to be built in any material amount.

China, Europe, and the US can build ~25-30M EVs per year with existing manufacturing capacity, as of this comment. That is 1/4th of global annual light vehicle sales. We can deploy ~1TW of solar PV globally annually. The world reached 3TW of total solar PV generating capacity this year. China's energy from coal has declined below 50% this year. Energy storage production continues to ramp right behind renewables. These are straightforward systems problems, there are no blockers or technical limitations.

TLDR Strongly agree existing coal generators might generate more and longer than they otherwise would, but clean tech trajectory will only get pulled more vertical from further oil energy supply shocks.

China's EV Boom Is Quietly Undermining Oil's Biggest Chokepoint - https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Chinas-EV-Boom-Is... - August 4th, 2026

China’s LNG and coal demand slows as renewable energy surges - https://www.rinnovabili.net/policy-and-affairs/environmental... - August 3rd, 2026

Renewables To Squeeze Oil And Gas Imports In New Electric Age For Asia - https://www.forbes.com/sites/ianpalmer/2026/06/23/renewables... - June 23rd, 2026

From Australia to Vietnam, the Iran war is fuelling demand for EVs - https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/27/from-australia-t... - April 27th, 2026

EV demand is getting a boost from the Iran war — just as auto giants pivot back to combustion engines - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/evs-autos-energy-oil-iran-wa... - April 2nd, 2026

Re: Iran threatens to hit Gulf states if US launches new strikes

#19

Post by jdlshore »

relug wrote: post #2

interesting why usa wants to keep escalating, muat be some strat behind it maybe to induce strategical global recession or try and slow down china or something else

It’s Trump, not the USA, and he seems to be ruled by passions rather than logic. Mostly, his goals seem to be to seek wealth and adoration by any means necessary. Now that he’s in it, there’s no way out, and particularly no way out that doesn’t make him look like an even bigger fool. So he’ll stay in it until things get so bad he has no other choice. But that won’t stop him from lying about progress and enriching himself through the resultant stock market swings.
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