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Discovery Loop

discoveryloop.com

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Re: Discovery Loop

#331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. Grad students are already essentially working for free.

How many lavishly-paid deans and bureaucrats and administrators are employed for each grad student?

Generally universities take half the grant from the start and that's before taking fringe on top of salaries.

Re: Discovery Loop

#332
post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And what's the difference?

Agents act on their own. If the hammer looked at what you wanted nailed and said, "Sorry, Dave, I can't do that." There are degrees of autonomy, of course, and not all noncompliance is bad. Same as with humans; biological agents.

So, the difference is that you need to delete a few bad training runs?

Re: Discovery Loop

#333

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Data centers need lots of power 24/7 and regardless of cloud cover. Solar is great to reduce your daytime bills but you still need other methods to cover the downtime. I would be surprised if data centers didn't put in gas _and_ solar.

That's why I'm surprised, they're doing like 100% gas.

Also wouldn't be surprised if they are just waiting for a new US administration.

Re: Discovery Loop

#334
post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They make many bold promises, but their core goal is neatly encapsulated on the website: "Imagine a future where a handful of people can conduct scientific research and engineering tasks much more rapidly, and with higher quality, than massive teams of scientists and engineers do today." This is the same goal as every other AI company out there. Automate away the human employees and let a small number of "people" (no…

Humans have proven to be incapable of making real progress in science given the effort. Especially academia. We haven't cured many diseases and cancer when we should have (and no im not an amateur and yes I do believe we can "cure cancer". Debate me). We already have a trillionaire, whats the difference? The only difference I see is that people who were previously rich, but considered themselves middle class, are now…

Many cancers are "cured" in the sense that they're detectable and treatable. My grandmother lived 35 years longer than she would have by detecting breast cancer early and getting a mastectomy.

There is currently a $800 SOTA blood test that can detect most cancers before any symptoms. Maybe a decade until it's a routine part of your annual blood test?

Whole genome sequencing costed $2.7 billion in 2003. You can get it done today using a mailed kit for $400.

HIV went from death sentence to all-but-cured in 50 years.

Re: Discovery Loop

#335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Note that Jeff and crew have cleverly structured their company to avoid problematic uses of AI Do you have more sources/info on this?

They do not call attention to this aspect of their new company, but it is implicit in their business model: https://xcancel.com/JeffDean/status/2085034604172603724 In short, they are in the business of using AI to automate the discovery of useful knowledge, not to sell general-purpose AI capabilities that could be directly used in troubling ways.

The question is what they plan on doing with all their scientific knowledge once they succeed.

Sure, they'll keep it internal for a while to make sure their knowledge bank is more thorough than everyone else's, and because oftentimes discoveries can be far more convincing internally than externally (you need fewer sigmas for it to update your belief in a certain direction). But then how do they intend to profit from it in the end?

Re: Discovery Loop

#336

From Jeff's twitter post: > Our general approach is to automate the experimental loop. We think this approach is broadly applicable across many different fields of science and engineering. We’ll initially focus on ML research and engineering, but believe the approach can help with important subproblems in nearly every one of the fourteen NAE Grand Challenge problems. We think doing this well requires strong expertise…

Such a weird list. How is preventing nuclear terror an engineering problem?

And what about the terrorism that exists today?

Re: Discovery Loop

#337
post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As you said, Solar power is incredibly economical. Not if you include the cost of needed storage.

Yes It is. Even including batteries: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/lcoe-and-valu...

"Solar PV with storage = solar PV installation paired with four-hour duration battery storage, scaled to 20% of the output capacity of the solar PV."

Sometime the sun goes away for more than 4hrs.

That may be OK for closed-ended systems (turn off the science at night and during storms), but not for open-ended systems with diverse user demand.

4hour batteries are competitive with gas peakers to match high demand during and after sunny times, but solar needs gas peakers or similar to over for non-sunny times.

Re: Discovery Loop

#338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not enough. The more economical it is, the better.

The paradox of solar is that more economical it is for the end users the less money is there to be made. So nobody wants to invest in it.

This was basically solved by massive subsidies from the Chinese government.

https://e360.yale.edu/digest/china-clean-tech-developing-cou...

Re: Discovery Loop

#339

From Jeff's twitter post: > Our general approach is to automate the experimental loop. We think this approach is broadly applicable across many different fields of science and engineering. We’ll initially focus on ML research and engineering, but believe the approach can help with important subproblems in nearly every one of the fourteen NAE Grand Challenge problems. We think doing this well requires strong expertise…

Would be great if they'd add: Reverse human aging. (Maybe a sub-topic under "Engineer Better Medicines".)

At a population level, humans getting rid of their off switch is about as good of a thing as your own pancreas cells getting rid of theirs.
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