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Senators demand crackdown on wildfire "prediction market" bets

arstechnica.com

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Re: Senators demand crackdown on wildfire "prediction market" bets

#11

Post by kelseyfrog »

csb6 wrote: post #10
kelseyfrog wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Theoretically, being a SME means having an edge with which one can extract money. Agree or disagree? Why?

So what is the rational reason someone who isn't a subject matter expert (assuming that's what you mean by SME) to bet in prediction markets? The platforms appear to be marketed to the general public to be used casually as a way to make quick money. Someone who is a "subject matter expert" (and given how specific many of these predictions are, being an expert usually means you are an insider with non-public informati…

Whats the rational reason people buy lottery tickets, participate in sports betting, or any other EV<0 activities? Their irrationally is SMEs' edge.

Re: Senators demand crackdown on wildfire "prediction market" bets

#12

Post by claudetard »

kelseyfrog wrote: post #4
sixQuarks wrote: post #3

This is insane. Predictive markets should already be illegal in the first place but to allow things like this is just insane

Prediction markets allow us to quantify risk. (Un)expectedly we learned that the existence of a prediction market for an event increases its risk as long as someone capable of triggering the event stands to gain financially from its outcome.

No, they're just gambling, and crime markets.

Re: Senators demand crackdown on wildfire "prediction market" bets

#13

Post by jumpinjack710 »

autoexec wrote: post #9

These senators who don't want people to gamble on, profit from, and create/fuel horrific disasters all have Ds after their names while the person they're begging to do something to stop this, Michael Selig, has an R after his name and also worked as a corporate lawyer for cryptocurrency firms and prediction markets before he was appointed by Trump to regulate those same industries. This "demand" letter will be ignore…

[dead]

Re: Senators demand crackdown on wildfire "prediction market" bets

#14

Post by csb6 »

kelseyfrog wrote: post #11
csb6 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what is the rational reason someone who isn't a subject matter expert (assuming that's what you mean by SME) to bet in prediction markets? The platforms appear to be marketed to the general public to be used casually as a way to make quick money. Someone who is a "subject matter expert" (and given how specific many of these predictions are, being an expert usually means you are an insider with non-public informati…

Whats the rational reason people buy lottery tickets, participate in sports betting, or any other EV<0 activities? Their irrationally is SMEs' edge.

They do it because they get a dopamine hit from doing it, have superstitious beliefs, or have delusions that they can predict events they have no information on.

Interested if you believe insider trading of stocks should be legal - aren't insiders just providing the market with more information about that stock?

Re: Senators demand crackdown on wildfire "prediction market" bets

#15

Post by TitaRusell »

kelseyfrog wrote: post #4
sixQuarks wrote: post #3

This is insane. Predictive markets should already be illegal in the first place but to allow things like this is just insane

Prediction markets allow us to quantify risk. (Un)expectedly we learned that the existence of a prediction market for an event increases its risk as long as someone capable of triggering the event stands to gain financially from its outcome.

This is nothing new. Shipping magnates used to send out old ships into storms and collect the insurance. Sucked for the crew ofcourse.

Re: Senators demand crackdown on wildfire "prediction market" bets

#16

Post by SaucyWrong »

kelseyfrog wrote: post #7
toasty228 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Prediction markets allow us to quantify risk. Might as well derivate it from existing casino's roulette games, it's not like anyone betting on these are subject experts. It's pure greed and fomo, sprinkled with a bit of cheating and corruption.

Theoretically, being a SME means having an edge with which one can extract money. Agree or disagree? Why?

Disagree. I don’t need to be a subject matter expert on the environment or fire risks to profit from a wildfire prediction market. I need enough money to buy a pack of cigarettes.

EDIT: I suppose I also need to be able to purchase the “shares” in the “market”

Re: Senators demand crackdown on wildfire "prediction market" bets

#17

Post by csb6 »

SaucyWrong wrote: post #16
kelseyfrog wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Theoretically, being a SME means having an edge with which one can extract money. Agree or disagree? Why?

Disagree. I don’t need to be a subject matter expert on the environment or fire risks to profit from a wildfire prediction market. I need enough money to buy a pack of cigarettes. EDIT: I suppose I also need to be able to purchase the “shares” in the “market”

A wildfire prediction market seems like a spectacularly bad idea. Essentially incentivizing arson.
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