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Intelligence Is Not the Main Bottleneck

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Re: Intelligence Is Not the Main Bottleneck

#91

Post by asdff »

Veedrac wrote: post #54

Indeed. Humans and not other apes reached the moon by our great proclivity to long distance running, through our exceptional sweat glands... ah, wait. How is it possible to live in the world around us and not see, apparent and transparent, that intelligence is the lever on which everything rests? Humans are surprisingly weird animals, but it's not our hairlessness or our fairly average propensity to violence that did…

Seems intelligence is actually a bit antithetical to the idea of a stable society. Look at the rate of change of our species. Within our own lifetimes there is so much change that it eventually exceeds our abilities to property mental model this change by the time we are elderly.

Meanwhile, consider the termite. Their society has been stable for millions of years and they've colonized the earth. Intelligence is not needed for that.

Re: Intelligence Is Not the Main Bottleneck

#92

Post by thinkharderdev »

adverbly wrote: post #47

> new drugs approved per dollar of R&D has fallen for decades, even as our scientific tools have grown vastly more powerful, the exact opposite of what the existence of more raw capability would predict Can we please stop using X per dollar as a metric over long periods of time? Inflation causes exponential price increases, so almost everything would be expected to have its "per dollar" yield decrease over time...

The chart in the article is inflation adjusted.

Re: Intelligence Is Not the Main Bottleneck

#93

Post by boothby »

scuppernong wrote: post #30

"He looked at me incredulously. Surely, a smart person like me should know that AI, or better said, AGI will be hyperpersuasive soon – already on a bunch of benchmarks it exceeds professional debaters at persuasion." I'm always tickled by this tic of this kind of person, that human traits are something that we can maximize to infinity. That if we trained a robot to tell jokes, it would eventually tell jokes so funny…

Hyperpersuasion is not necessary. AI needn't convince the smartest among us, it need only convince the masses. Which, thanks to the widgets in our pockets, is a highly distributable task. The other risk profile is that of the hyperhacker: a sufficiently advanced AI can worm its way into untold internet-connected systems. Wars are being fought drone-to-drone already without a reduction in human deaths. Every drive-by-wire car and plane is a weapon waiting to be deployed.

Re: Intelligence Is Not the Main Bottleneck

#94

Post by bobsmooth »

adverbly wrote: post #47

> new drugs approved per dollar of R&D has fallen for decades, even as our scientific tools have grown vastly more powerful, the exact opposite of what the existence of more raw capability would predict Can we please stop using X per dollar as a metric over long periods of time? Inflation causes exponential price increases, so almost everything would be expected to have its "per dollar" yield decrease over time...

The chart literally says it accounts for inflation

Re: Intelligence Is Not the Main Bottleneck

#96

Post by dgellow »

HardlyCognizant wrote: post #60
dgellow wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would go further and say that the human should be the bottleneck/blocker. If not designed for and to serve humans, which means to have human in the position of power and control and take in account all the various human oddities, why are we building all of this?

> why are we building all of this? To remove humans from power in all cases where our biases and animalistic nature would cause unnecessary suffering to others. As a species we are quickly approaching some very hard problems that no individual, or even small group, is capable of handling in a consistently rational manner. On our current trajectory of resource constraints and habitability constrictions, ethics by the…

That reads like satire, but just to be extra sure: you’re not serious, right? That’s a monstrous position to have

Re: Intelligence Is Not the Main Bottleneck

#97

Post by HardlyCognizant »

pluralmonad wrote: post #69
HardlyCognizant wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why are we building all of this? To remove humans from power in all cases where our biases and animalistic nature would cause unnecessary suffering to others. As a species we are quickly approaching some very hard problems that no individual, or even small group, is capable of handling in a consistently rational manner. On our current trajectory of resource constraints and habitability constrictions, ethics by the…

How do you make sure the thing you are hoping saves everyone has an inclination (or ability) to do so? How do you make sure it is only afflicted with the human parts you like and not the ones you don't?

Nothing can save everyone, that's the point. There is no miracle out there that suddenly makes the world a fairy tale. And I don't have an answer, otherwise I would have made a claim to that effect.

This is a hard problem, and the human mind is not naturally equipped to work at the scales in question. Perhaps the solution is a thing (e.g a program), a process like democracy of some ilk, or something else entirely. The important part is recognizing our limits and working to account for them in our solutions. Acting without that awareness is a recipe for disaster.

Re: Intelligence Is Not the Main Bottleneck

#99

Post by Veedrac »

samth wrote: post #73
Veedrac wrote: post #54

Indeed. Humans and not other apes reached the moon by our great proclivity to long distance running, through our exceptional sweat glands... ah, wait. How is it possible to live in the world around us and not see, apparent and transparent, that intelligence is the lever on which everything rests? Humans are surprisingly weird animals, but it's not our hairlessness or our fairly average propensity to violence that did…

How much more intelligence will it take to get people to be ok with data center construction? How much more intelligence will be needed to reduce overuse of antibiotics? How much more intelligence is necessary to enable free trade with Canada?

...only very marginally more?

What property, if not intelligence, do you think makes people capable of rallying political support? Of working quickly though permit processes? Of providing accurate drug dosing guidance? Of presenting as a trustworthy personal healthcare guide? Of negotiating political deals? Of making effective public communications? Of juggling independent parties' interests? Of coming out ahead in contracts? Of producing alternative antibiotics? Of detecting and handling drug resistance in the wild? What answer could your questions possibly have other than this?

Re: Intelligence Is Not the Main Bottleneck

#100

Post by [deleted] »

boothby wrote: post #93
scuppernong wrote: post #30

"He looked at me incredulously. Surely, a smart person like me should know that AI, or better said, AGI will be hyperpersuasive soon – already on a bunch of benchmarks it exceeds professional debaters at persuasion." I'm always tickled by this tic of this kind of person, that human traits are something that we can maximize to infinity. That if we trained a robot to tell jokes, it would eventually tell jokes so funny…

Hyperpersuasion is not necessary. AI needn't convince the smartest among us, it need only convince the masses. Which, thanks to the widgets in our pockets, is a highly distributable task. The other risk profile is that of the hyperhacker: a sufficiently advanced AI can worm its way into untold internet-connected systems. Wars are being fought drone-to-drone already without a reduction in human deaths. Every drive-by-…

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