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Waymo CEO explains why Tesla’s camera-only self-driving falls short

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Re: Waymo CEO explains why Tesla’s camera-only self-driving falls short

#81
post #60
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well yeah, have you seen how badly some of you people drive?

Even the average human ends up with about 1 fatality every 100 million miles and 1 serious injury every 10 million miles. The typical person will drive somewhere in the six figures of miles in their lifetime.

What's your point?

Re: Waymo CEO explains why Tesla’s camera-only self-driving falls short

#82

> 94% fewer serious-injury crashes than human drivers That is a remarkable number. You can avoid 50% of multi-vehicle crashes by being a good driver yourself, but the other 50% are caused by the other driver. To get above 50% you have to drive defensively and do a good job modelling the actions of other drivers.

From my experience of potentially serious injury crashes, they are mostly from going too fast and crashing into something. The ones where I've stopped and some other bad driver has gone into me are mostly too slow to cause injury.

Re: Waymo CEO explains why Tesla’s camera-only self-driving falls short

#83
post #33

> “Humans of course can drive with just eyes, so there’s that proof of existence,” he said. “If the goal were to just approximately match human performance or to build an assist product, that’s a very reasonable way to go.” It feels like there's a lot of assumptions baked in here. For example, do humans get in accidents because eyes are insufficient driving sensors? Or because human drivers get tired, distracted, mak…

Humans of course generally have human level intelligence and Teslas don't yet which means with similar inputs they'll probably do worse. Also I'm not sure Tesla's cameras provide as good an input as sitting in the driving seat? Certainly I can't drive nearly as well looking at the reversing screen as looking through the window.

Re: Waymo CEO explains why Tesla’s camera-only self-driving falls short

#84

I can purchase a self-driving Tesla at a reasonable price, in-line with other cars of the same class. I can't purchase a Waymo at any price.

You can't purchase a level 3 Tesla at any price, either. To me, true self-driving starts at level 3. Otherwise, it's supervised. And Tesla selling their product as "Full Self Driving (Supervised)" is like selling "Fully Cooked Meal (Frozen)". No! You call it a "frozen meal"!

Whether it's "true" self-driving, it is unquestionably useful. Everyday, _every_ day, FSD drives me on my commute (down different paths depending on traffic) with the only intervention being a nudge on an unprotected left turn across a wide highway.

Recent updates broke parking in my specific parking spot, but I'm confident this regression will be fixed.

Re: Waymo CEO explains why Tesla’s camera-only self-driving falls short

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't measure aggregate risk by discarding a part of the population, even if it's the poorer-performing part. Even today, you cannot fully avoid this risk: when you get into a vehicle driven by a stranger, you don't know a priori whether the driver is excellent or average. Ideally customer feedback weeds out poor drivers and reduces accident rates, but I'm not privy to data that would prove or disprove whether tha…

We absolutely can and do mitigate these risks when getting into vehicles driven by strangers: professional drivers typically have higher standards for driving history, and people can physically observe whether a friend/etc is drunk/distracted/etc. But besides that, the people who are in the socioeconomic demographic to buy an expensive self driving car overlap with the demographic that have lower driving risk. For th…

[deleted]

Re: Waymo CEO explains why Tesla’s camera-only self-driving falls short

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't purchase a level 3 Tesla at any price, either. To me, true self-driving starts at level 3. Otherwise, it's supervised. And Tesla selling their product as "Full Self Driving (Supervised)" is like selling "Fully Cooked Meal (Frozen)". No! You call it a "frozen meal"!

Whether it's "true" self-driving, it is unquestionably useful. Everyday, _every_ day, FSD drives me on my commute (down different paths depending on traffic) with the only intervention being a nudge on an unprotected left turn across a wide highway. Recent updates broke parking in my specific parking spot, but I'm confident this regression will be fixed.

it's very advanced adas. it is useful

but you said "FSD" which stands for FULL Self Driving. You didn't say FSDS, or FSD Beta, or "Tesla's Level 2" self driving.

It is NOT a FULL self driving solution yet. They are lying and you are repeating their lies.

Re: Waymo CEO explains why Tesla’s camera-only self-driving falls short

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't measure aggregate risk by discarding a part of the population, even if it's the poorer-performing part. Even today, you cannot fully avoid this risk: when you get into a vehicle driven by a stranger, you don't know a priori whether the driver is excellent or average. Ideally customer feedback weeds out poor drivers and reduces accident rates, but I'm not privy to data that would prove or disprove whether tha…

We absolutely can and do mitigate these risks when getting into vehicles driven by strangers: professional drivers typically have higher standards for driving history, and people can physically observe whether a friend/etc is drunk/distracted/etc. But besides that, the people who are in the socioeconomic demographic to buy an expensive self driving car overlap with the demographic that have lower driving risk. For th…

That suggests the comparative bar should be "professional driver," which is perhaps somewhat higher than "average driver" (1.5x? 2x?) but not 10x higher.

Re: Waymo CEO explains why Tesla’s camera-only self-driving falls short

#88

Personal experience, but my Tesla Model 3 drives most trips from start to finish. If I have to intervene, it's usually because other drivers aren't letting it into a lane and I have to get aggressive. Friends I know in Dallas and Austin (simpler, friendlier streets than where I live) say they don't drive at all anymore. Maybe it's not good enough for a robotaxi service yet, but the rate of progress since my first Tes…

Will the Tesla handle getting stuck behind a double parked car without your intervention?

Yes, it’s surprisingly good at knowing when to ignore traffic rules. As a recent example, it edged over into an oncoming lane (that didn’t have any approaching cars) to make room for a pedestrian walking on my side of the road.

Re: Waymo CEO explains why Tesla’s camera-only self-driving falls short

#89

Personal experience, but my Tesla Model 3 drives most trips from start to finish. If I have to intervene, it's usually because other drivers aren't letting it into a lane and I have to get aggressive. Friends I know in Dallas and Austin (simpler, friendlier streets than where I live) say they don't drive at all anymore. Maybe it's not good enough for a robotaxi service yet, but the rate of progress since my first Tes…

Tried FSD once. It was very confused about a traffic circle, cruised up to it & slammed on the brakes. Got rear ended (at low speed). The incomplete, miscategorizing and glitching display of other vehicles and obstacles does not give me confidence that the car is able to correctly identify what’s around it, let alone drive accordingly. Even the lane departure warnings are 90% false positives (but I’d rather be warned…

I’m also wondering when this was. I had similar experiences with my first Tesla (2022) and stopped paying for FSD except when I had road trips (then cancel again after). I’ve only felt comfortable using it by default in the past year.

Re: Waymo CEO explains why Tesla’s camera-only self-driving falls short

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whether it's "true" self-driving, it is unquestionably useful. Everyday, _every_ day, FSD drives me on my commute (down different paths depending on traffic) with the only intervention being a nudge on an unprotected left turn across a wide highway. Recent updates broke parking in my specific parking spot, but I'm confident this regression will be fixed.

it's very advanced adas. it is useful but you said "FSD" which stands for FULL Self Driving. You didn't say FSDS, or FSD Beta, or "Tesla's Level 2" self driving. It is NOT a FULL self driving solution yet. They are lying and you are repeating their lies.

Since we're into semantics and definitions, "FULL Self Driving" does not appear as a formal, defined standard. It is a brand. What's more, it is not a lie. The vehicle "fully" self drives (for me about 95% of the time).
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