Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The Hallucinations are becoming less, significantly by now. Yes? What is the mega-solid technique that is used for it? Armies of people using curated data and reviewing it by hand? That is exactly one of my points: shifting the work elsewhere for specialized tasks. More replicable, improved, but, it scales infinitely and is autonomous? Can you assert that? I am not denying there is some use (a lot of uses!) for thi…
> shifting the work elsewhere for specialized tasks. More replicable, improved, but, it scales infinitely and is autonomous? Can you assert that? I would say yes and it will scale. It will either happen through central LLM just paying for it and scaling it up to everyone on the planet (literaly) OR by the agentic layer every big business is building into their systems. You needed some human to use your tool optimized…
So you mean AI will be useful for any general job without lots of training for those jobs? How about new tasks? Tasks it has not been tweaked for. When I deviated from the average, and not really weird things, when programming, the output was way worse than average stuff. And this is an explicit target of AIs nowadays.
I think you are missing a lot of details here, honestly.
> Exactly. Right? There is no ceiling if its clear that we don't even have the hrdware. But the hardware is a bottleneck not a ceiling.
No, the hardware is a bottleneck, the paradigm as we know it is a ceiling unless you massively and continuously feed this system with average tasks (which is useful). Which is exactly the opposite of what singularity and AGI have been promising.
The systems we have now (unless the paradigm changes) will keep doing, essentially, fitting. No concept of truth and limited inference. That inference is based on already existing data, not on future data. In fact, there have been experiments about feeding output back to the input of LLMs and the degradation of the quality is very visible. If they are supposed to be so "intelligent", why it happens?
> It doesn't need to be perfect
I can agree that for lots of tasks it does not. But for others it is just not a tool good enough.
> Yeah for now. Grill me skill made it a lot easier. Harness engineering is also being worked on, agentic layer, ai factories etc.
I will not deny there could be progress, but nothing similar to "autonomous", "reliable", "super intelligence" or "singularity" with this paradigm.
In fact, often in my experience, this is a waste of tokens for subpar results that shift the technical debt elsewhere. I mean if you try to develop full systems by "vibe-code like" techniques. If you use them judiciously, you can accelerate your workflow, maybe 2x, but not much beyond that if you want to have something worth to be used. Note that here I am talking about the full thing: with testing, quality, maintenance concerns and everything together.
If you want to ship a sub-par thing that will go to the rubbish in a couple of months, then yes, you can do that. But that will fail commercially any way. Unless your job is convincing enough people that you can go 10x faster every time, deliver some sub-par thing, and find another customer, which, to me, would equal a scam.